Earnings Labs

OR Royalties Inc. (OR)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 7, 2025

$37.64

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the OR Royalties Q3 2025 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded today, November 6, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to our host for today's call, Mr. Jason Attew. [Foreign Language]

Jason Attew

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for your attention today, as I know it is a very busy reporting week. Procedurally, I'll run through the presentation, and then we'll open up the line for questions. For those participating online via the webcast, you can submit your questions in advance through the webcast platform. Today's presentation will also be available and downloadable online through our corporate website. Please note that there are forward-looking statements in this presentation from which actual results may differ. Also, all amounts presented and discussed in today's call will be in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. I'm joined on the call today by Fred Ruel, the company's VP Finance and Chief Financial Officer, as well as my other colleagues as indicated on Slide 3. OR Royalties third quarter of 2025 was a straightforward one with sequential quarter-over-quarter improvement with respect to GEOs earned, cash margin, cash flows as well as our overall debt reduction. OR Royalties earned 20,326 gold equivalent ounces in the third quarter, a modest 3% improvement over second quarter of this year. Based on where we sit today after the first 9 months of the year, the company is tracking towards the midpoint of its previously published full year 2025 gold equivalent ounce delivery guidance range of 80,000 to 88,000 GEOs. And this would be based on normalizing for the higher-than-budgeted commodity price ratios. In other words, gold, silver, copper and gold year-to-date. More on this in a moment. Recall that we've been very specific -- explicit about the fact that due to sequencing at some of our major producing assets, including Mantos Blancos and ongoing ramp-ups at other assets like Namdini. The second half of the year was always expected to be a little bit stronger than the first half of 2025. Consequently, and…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Joshua Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets.

Joshua Wolfson

Analyst

A couple of questions. First for Malartic, this has been a very strong year for the asset, outperforming expectations on Barnat grades. The existing mine plan in 2026 outlined a little bit lower production before, I guess, some further increases thereafter. I'm wondering how OR is thinking about the near-term outlook for the asset in the context of what next year looks like and what we should expect there?

Jason Attew

Analyst

Thank you, Josh. I note you had 2 questions, so we'll come back to you in a second, but I'm going to hand it over to Guy, who is best situated to answer the question for you in the audience.

Guy Desharnais

Analyst

Josh, we're not expecting any surprises. As you know, the grade overperformance is due to blocks that are around the underground stopes and Agnico takes a fairly conservative approach to whether those blocks appear in the resource reserve models. We continue that -- we expect that to continue into the final pits that we see there. So no expected surprises. We do get more detailed information at the beginning of the year with respect to their short-term mine plans, but we don't have those yet.

Jason Attew

Analyst

And your next question, Josh... I can keep going. I've got a couple of them. For Eagle, I'm wondering if OR has been involved in any part of the negotiation process with some of the parties here that have been, I guess, providing offers. So look, I think everybody is aware, there is a public process that BMO Capital Markets Restructuring Group is running. It's safe to say that, as we mentioned, the first round of indicative bids, nonbinding bids passed and they've selected a number of we would -- what we would qualify or what they've told us is high-quality operators with very, very good ESG credentials. In addition, given the fact that we are a stakeholder, given our interest, we've also signed an NDA with the group PwC, who's obviously acting for the Yukon government and BMO Capital Markets. So it's really not appropriate for us to be able to comment on, again, any discussions we may or may not have with potential operators. They are running the -- BMO Capital Markets is running a very fulsome and proper public process that you certainly and everybody, all stakeholders will be able to see in the fullness of time. All we can say is as a stakeholder, we're quite pleased with the progress that has been made. We do believe that at some point, and we'll very likely get visibility in 2026 as to what the plan of the next operator of the Eagle Mine will be -- and at that point, we will determine or decide whether we reinclude the Eagle GEOs into our 5-year outlook. So there's not much more that we can say on that, Josh, apart from we're very pleased with the quality of interest from established operators that are looking to set a base up in the Yukon.

Joshua Wolfson

Analyst

Great. And then one last one. I think in some of the prior conference calls, you had talked about some potential for a transaction to be announced before year-end. It sounds like the company is instituting some greater discipline. And I'm just wondering what the outlook is still for that negotiation process.

Jason Attew

Analyst

Yes. No, it's a really good question. I'm looking at my team around the table here. As I said in my remarks, the corporate development technical teams are just flat out right now. We're looking at a lot of opportunities. However, as I've said in the past, I mean, if our group can get 1, maybe 2 high conviction, very good returns for our shareholders over the course of 12 months to 18 months, we will do that. What we've seen in the marketplace, though, is we have not been able to conclude those transactions, both on a couple of things, as I said in my remarks, value. We're not seeing -- we've got to obviously make a spread on our own internal hurdle rate. We're not seeing deals right now that satisfy that criteria. As also, we've seen some loosening of structure, i.e., there's been a number of deals, as you would know, that are unsecured or the security instrument is not where we, as risk managers on behalf of shareholders' capital are comfortable with at this stage. So there's certainly a desire to get things done, Josh. It's just we have to remain very disciplined and really stick to and pick our spots.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank.

Can I just continue on Josh's questions on the transaction opportunities? Jason, you mentioned on your call that you have an internal rate of return metric that you're very focused on as part of your strict valuation for all metrics for transactions and you said it's a more conservative gold price. What sort of internal rate is that? Is it...

Jason Attew

Analyst · Scotiabank.

It would vary, Tanya. And so maybe we can take this conversation offline because I think it is important you understand it, but I'll just talk about broad parameters. We obviously have a weighted average cost of capital within our company. That's mainly informed by a revolving credit facility. Our revolving credit facility is based on a variable rate. I think you know what prime rates and where the rates have been going down. So approximately, and it could vary over time, but approximately, it's about 4.5% in terms of our cost of capital or cost of debt if we were to dip into the revolving credit facility. So that is obviously what we need for a transaction is a spread beyond that. And what we also do is we don't do transactions and we don't look at transactions in the frame of spot prices right now. We do continue to look at consensus pricing and be informed by that. All that said, we do look at spot as a relevant benchmark. It is a very competitive sector and very competitive for deals right now. And then we have to really lean on our technical team, Guy and Brendan, in particular, to look through the asset and see what might not be publicly disclosed in terms of technical reports to look for upside, both geologically, mine life extensions and operational efficiencies. So it's a very complex -- well, it's an answer that has many different components to it. Very happy to walk you through our methodology at some point. But you can think around those parameters, as I said, a spread over that hurdle. And obviously, if we did a transaction in one of those Tier 1 jurisdictions, the hurdle or the spread would be significantly less than, let's call it, Tier 2 or Tier 3. And we've proven that in the past. Let's go back to the Cascabel transaction that we did with Franco and what the Street had suggested in terms of the internal rate of return that was mid-teens for us, 14% to 15%. So those are approximately the goalpost, Tanya.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank.

Okay. So definitely over 5% spread over that. Maybe just on the opportunities that you're seeing out there. I think on the Q2 conference call, it was quite a wide spread from like $50 million to $1 billion. I mean, you can drive a truck through that. Maybe we could talk a little bit more about what are you seeing currently in the environment? Is it a much tighter spread? Is it still streams versus royalty packages? Is it still development or financing for asset sales? What exactly are you seeing?

Jason Attew

Analyst · Scotiabank.

The answer to all those questions, Tanya, is yes, all of the above. Again, it varies for sure. And some obviously deals that are in flight we've been working on for can be 2 years, 3 years and some obviously come in through processes of existing operators, for example, deciding now is the right time to sell a royalty package off that they've put in a portfolio many, many years ago and obviously are looking at the commodity complex and saying, is this the right time for us to extract value. So again, there's a lot of different opportunities out there for us. I think I'm consistent in saying that for us, being a mid-tier streaming and royalty company that the strike zone for us is anywhere between $50 million and $500 million. We do have ample liquidity and capacity to do that given, again, we're now 0 debt and completely undrawn on our revolving credit facility. But there is many, many opportunities out there. As I said, our team is very busy, and I will -- because I don't think it's -- I will again emphasize that for our company, given our growth profile, we just have to be incredibly disciplined around capital allocation.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank.

Okay. I guess we'll get more into that at your Investor Day. Maybe just a final question. As I think about 2026, and I know pricing is important, whether you keep the 82 or 83:1 ratio. As I think about -- and you provided the 5-year 2029, you're up in that 120,000 GEO, 125,000 GEOs or thereabout. As I think 2026, would it be fair and it's just a directional situation, would it be fair to assume that '26 could look very similar to '25?

Jason Attew

Analyst · Scotiabank.

Yes. No, it's an excellent question, Tanya. Look, obviously, we'll provide more details when we put out our 1-year guidance in February of 2026 as well as an updated 5-year outlook. What we've been consistent in saying in the past is this growth rate, 40% over the next 5 years is not linear. You know the assets that we have in production currently. Really the only new asset that's going -- unless we actually bring an asset through an acquisition, the only really new asset coming in is the Dalgaranga that we talked about on the call. We do expect next year for Mantos Blancos to continue to have the higher silver grades that we've just recently started to experience. So those are the big drivers of growth for 2026 as well as the Namdini mine in Ghana as it hits its full stride in 2026. That's probably the best guidance I can give you at this stage. We can certainly talk about it further on Monday at the Investor Analyst Day, but we'll give all that specificity to the extent we can in February of 2026.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank.

And look forward to your Investor Day.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Carey MacRury with Canaccord Genuity.

Carey MacRury

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity.

Just a quick one for me. There was a copper buydown option on the MAC Copper stream. Just wondering if that option transfers now to Harmony and if you have any thoughts on whether they will execute that or not?

Jason Attew

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity.

So really good question. Cary, effectively, you can think of everything that we had with MAC Copper as essentially being assigned to Harmony Gold. So yes is a straightforward answer. And anything that you're modeling or seeing with MAC Copper, you can just assume and because it has been assigned to Harmony Gold. There's been no changes in the structure, no changes in effectively anything commercially with respect to that -- both the silver stream and the copper stream.

Carey MacRury

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity.

And that option only kicks in after -- on the fifth anniversary, they can exercise early.

Jason Attew

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity.

That's correct.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

Jason Attew

Analyst

Thank you, Joel. As always, if anyone on the call or listening to this replay has additional questions, insights or observations on our business and our business strategy, please do reach out to Grant, Heather or myself, and we're more than pleased to provide more information about the bright future for our company and its shareholders. In addition, I would like to provide a final plug for our Investor and Analyst Day, which is planned to be a 2-hour session this Monday, starting at 1:00 p.m. at Vantage Venues in Downtown Toronto. My team will go through in much greater detail our assets, including the potential for growth, insights and opportunities that we do see within our portfolio. If you can make it down in person and you haven't already done so, please RSVP to my colleague, Grant Meonting. And if you can't make it in person, a live webcast link was also provided in our press release last night. We hope you can join us either way. And if not, a recording of the event will be available on our website in relatively shorter order after the event. Thank you again very much for your time, and we look forward to engaging with you in the future.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.