Jonathan Coblentz
Analyst · Barclays
Thanks, Raul, and hello, everyone. As you may recall, in addition to GAAP, we also evaluate our performance based on fair value pro forma results, which we believe present a more consistent view of the underlying trends of the business.Unless I state otherwise, all of the metrics that I will now share with you will be on a fair value pro forma basis for the purposes of comparison to prior-year periods. A full list of definitions and reconciliations can be found in our earnings materials.Now let me start by giving you a summary of our bottom-line results for the quarter. Adjusted net income was $26.9 million, up 91% year-over-year. This growth in adjusted net income was attributable to strong net revenue growth, improvement in operating efficiency and a lower effective tax rate. Adjusted net income is the numerator of our adjusted return on equity, which was 22.8% for Q4 2019 versus 16.1% in the prior-year quarter.Adjusted ROE benefited from the increase in the fair value of our loans. Given the decline in interest rates since the end of 2019, we expect adjusted ROE will be lower in the first quarter of 2020.Over time, we believe improvements in our operating efficiency will allow us to consistently achieve a high-teens ROE on a consolidated basis, even as we make investments in new products. We believe adjusted EBITDA is also a useful profitability metric because it is a proxy for our pre-tax cash profitability and backs out market volatility associated with fair value accounting.For the fourth quarter, our adjusted EBITDA was $17 million, compared to $15.2 million in the prior-year quarter. This was ahead of the guidance we provided of $15 million to $16 million and reflects our operating expense discipline, higher total revenue, lower cost of funds and better than anticipated net charge-offs.For the fourth quarter, on a GAAP basis, we reported net income of $23.2 million, down 8% year-over-year and $0.81 of diluted EPS, down 20% year-over-year due to the elevation of our net income in 2018 caused by our election of fair value accounting. Our adjusted EPS, however, was $0.94, up 52% year-over-year based on adjusted net income of $26.9 million and well ahead of our guidance range.For the full-year, we reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40, down 91% year-over-year, which was impacted by the requirement to allocate earnings to preferred stock prior to its conversion at IPO. In contrast, our adjusted EPS was $2.53, up 32% year-over-year.Next, I'll run you through the key drivers of our results for the fourth quarter. Total revenue was $165.2 million, up 20% over the prior-year quarter, driven by equally strong growth in both interest income and noninterest income.Our interest income for the fourth quarter increased to $148.2 million, up 20% year-over-year as we grew our receivables portfolio through increased originations. Our managed principal balance at end-of-period grew 23% over the prior-year quarter to reach $2.2 billion.Aggregate originations for the quarter of $619.3 million grew 17% due to our successful marketing efforts, as well as increases in loan amounts for our returning customers. This portfolio growth was partially offset by an expected decline in our portfolio yield from 34.4% in the fourth quarter a year ago to 33.5% for the most recent quarter.This was due to our rapid growth in Florida and New Jersey, where rates are lower and our high percentage of returning customers whom we generally reward with lower rates. Noninterest income, which includes cash gain on sale from our home loan sale program, increased 20% to $17 million as a direct result of the growth in our loan originations.The growth in the volume of loans sold was slightly offset by lower gain on sale premium of 10.2% versus 10.9% in the prior-year period as a larger percentage of the loans we sold were part of our access loan program. And capitalized origination fees as a percentage of the loan balance have decreased as our average loan size has increased.For the fourth quarter, net revenue which is our total revenue after interest expense and net change in fair value was $131.8 million, up 31% year-over-year. The growth in net revenue exceeded our total revenue growth due to lower interest expense growth and an increase in the value of our loans.Interest expense of $15.4 million was up 20% year-over-year. The higher interest expense was driven by an increase in our average daily debt balance of 23% year-over-year and the issuance of noninvestment grade tranches to increase our advance rate in our 2018 ABS deals.We were able to access this debt capital efficiently as our cost of debt decreased slightly to 4.1% in Q4 2019 relative to 4.2% in the same period a year ago. For the full-year, our cost of debt was also 4.1%, and over 80% of our debt was at a fixed rate.Net increase or decrease in fair value or net change in fair value includes our current period principal net charge-offs and mark-to-market on our loans and debt. We provided a summary of the net change in fair value in our Q4 2019 earnings presentation that is available through our Investor Relations website.As you'll see on Page 14 of the presentation, the fourth quarter $18 million net decrease in fair value consisted of an $18.1 million mark-to-market increase on our loans receivable, a $4.1 million mark-to-market increase in our asset-backed notes and current period charge-offs of $40.2 million.The $18.1 million increase in fair value of our loans receivable was driven by a quarter-over-quarter increase in the fair value price for our loans from 103.8% to 104.5% as of December 31, 2019. We are originating more valuable loans with longer terms and lower expected lifetime loss rates. The fair value price also benefited from lower 3-month to 12-month interest rates and credit spreads versus the prior quarter.The $4.1 million mark-to-market increase from our ABS notes resulted from higher 2-year to 3-year interest rates, as well as prices converging to par as our 2017 bond deals approached their call dates.Page 35 of our earnings presentation illustrates the walk from our Q3 loans receivable mark to our Q4 mark in greater detail, and there are several contributing factors highlighted. First, a decline in our portfolio yield, which was consistent with our policy of rewarding returning customers who obtain larger and longer loans with a lower rate.Second, the average life of our loans increased because we originated more longer term loans. Third, reduction of our estimate of remaining cumulative lifetime loan losses. And fourth, a lower discount rate resulting from lower interest rates.Taken together, these resulted in a 67-basis-point increase in our fair value loan premium and led to a smaller net decrease in fair value and higher fourth quarter net revenue.Our operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $100.5 million, up 21% over the prior year. Adjusted operating efficiency of 57.8% was 160 basis points better than the comparable quarter last year.We've achieved this, even with our increased investments in new products, auto and credit cards, demonstrating our ability to deliver continued improvement in our operating efficiency even as we invest for a long-term growth. For the full-year, operating efficiency improved 60-basis-points from 2018.This reflects our ability to exercise strong expense control, which enabled us to allocate capital for investments in the growth of our technology team, data scientists and risk analysts, as well as public company readiness, sales and marketing and new products.Our customer acquisition cost for the fourth quarter of 2019 was $131, modestly up from $118 in the prior year quarter. In addition to digital testing and expansion into new markets, we decided to increase our overall marketing investments as we realized higher operating efficiencies in other expense areas. Operating costs associated with our auto loan and credit card products are included in our overall OpEx.And Page 15 of the earnings deck provides some additional detail regarding these costs. For Q4 2019, we recognized $5.1 million of operating expense related to our new product investments. And for the full-year 2019, these costs totaled $14.3 million as we continue to focus on building for long-term growth and shareholder value.Turning now to our tax rate. I would like to explain the change in effective tax rate that we had this quarter. Our effective tax rate was 26% for Q4 2019, as compared to 30% in Q3 2019 and 27% in previous quarters.The swing this quarter was due to the one-time impact in Q3 2019 of $7.9 million of stock compensation expense, which decreased pre-tax income but was not deductible for tax purposes. Whereas Q4 had no such one-time impact and benefited primarily from a larger percentage of our 2019 revenues being derived from states with lower tax rates.We would expect our effective tax rate to normalize to historical levels going forward. Moving on to our credit performance. We have closed the gap in delinquencies relative to the prior year. At the end of the third quarter, our delinquencies were 30-basis-points higher than the prior-year quarter.In comparison, at year-end, our 30-plus day delinquency rate returned to last year's level of 4% due to improving credit trends in our portfolio. Our net charge-off rate this quarter was 9%, which was better than our expectations and for the full-year 2019, our annualized net charge-off rate was 8.3%, which was well within our annual target range of between 7% to 9%.We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position and fund our business at sustainable leverage. As of December 31, 2019, cash and cash equivalents were $72.2 million and restricted cash was $64 million.As of December 31st, 2019, our debt-to-equity ratio was 3.2 times reduction from 3.7 times the prior year as the $60.5 million net proceeds we raised in our IPO in September reduced our need to issue debt to fund the strong growth of our portfolio in Q4 2019.As of December 31st, 2019, we now have $338 million of undrawn capacity on our $400 million warehouse line that is committed through October 2021. We continue to manage our funding program to maintain 12 months or more of liquidity runway.Before providing guidance, let me spend a minute talking about two factors we considered in setting guidance for our first-quarter and full-year 2020.First, as you know, there has been a decline in interest rates since the end of 2019, which will have an impact on our fair value mark-to-market and reduce our net revenue in Q1 2020. Our adjusted net income guidance for Q1 takes this into account.The second factor is the growth rate of our operating expenses. In 2019, we made significant investments in anticipation of our IPO and the launches of credit card and auto.For Q1 2020, we expect the 2019 exit rate for these expenses to impact the year-over-year comparisons for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. For full-year 2020, however, we expect margin improvement due to much slower growth year-over-year in operating expenses in the back half of the year.With that context, let me now provide guidance for the first-quarter and full-year 2020. For Q1, total revenue between $163 million and $165 million, adjusted EBITDA between $15 million and $17 million. Adjusted net income between $5 million and $7 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted share between $0.18 and $0.25.For the full-year 2020, we expect total revenue between $725 million and $735 million. Adjusted EBITDA between $86 million and $92 million, adjusted net income between $68 million and $74 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share between $2.28 and $2.48. Given our stable loss performance, our Q1 guidance for annualized net charge-off rate is 9.1%, plus or minus 10-basis-points.For the full-year, our guidance is a net charge-off rate of 8.6%, plus or minus 10-basis-points, which is within our target range of 7% to 9%. That concludes my remarks. And I will now turn the call back over to Raul.