Frode Jacobsen
Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is open
Thank you, Song. The fourth quarter really crowned the year as a whole, with a substantial payoff to our strategy, both in terms of our focus for product development and user growth as well as on the monetization and partnership side. Our 29% year-over-year growth was 12 points higher than the growth rate at the start of 2024 and well ahead of what we had guided for the fourth quarter as well. As we scale, we unlock new opportunities and partnerships that can create these outsized trajectory moves for an agile company like Opera. And as you started to see in the third quarter also, when that happens, we double down to seize it. The strong overperformance versus guidance was predominantly fueled by the 38% annual growth of advertising revenue, though it's worth highlighting search as well that ended the year at an also impressive 17% annual growth rate. In isolation, our rapid quarterly scaling of advertising revenue, including on third-party inventory, comes with a margin percentage headwind though of course a dollar-wise profit tailwind. Still, we achieved a quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin percentage in line with our guidance. And with that, the dollar amount of EBITDA exceeded the high end of our guidance range as well. In terms of cost, we raised our marketing spend to $41 million, on the back of our new Opera One, GX and iOS releases, in line with expectations. After working to ramp our marketing activities throughout the year, we were pleased to find sufficient opportunities to scale at attractive ROI in the seasonally important fourth quarter. Cost of revenue items came in at $48 million or 33% of revenue, scaling with the revenue over performance. Compensation costs reduced a bit more than expected versus the prior quarter to $17 million and all other OpEx items before adjusted EBITDA also reduced slightly to $7 million. With these results, Q4 marks our 15th consecutive quarter as a Rule of 40 company and yet another quarter of meeting or exceeding our guidance. Taken together with our material step up in scale over the past years, with a revenue run rate now exceeding the $0.5 billion mark as well as healthy profitability and cash flow generation, we believe that Opera benefits from increasing interest and awareness also within the investor community. Taking a step back, we can compare actuals for the year to our initial guidance. At the start of 2024, we guided for 15% annual revenue growth with a stable EBITDA margin. After a year of successful execution, we saw revenue growth accelerate to 21% for the year and our EBITDA margin expand from 23.6% in 2023 to 24% in 2024. That overperformance versus initial guidance resulted in $23 million of incremental revenue for the year of which we converted $7 million or 32% to incremental adjusted EBITDA. Our operating cash flow was $21.7 million in the quarter, representing 66% of adjusted EBITDA, which was ahead of what we had expected following the unusually strong cash flow in the third quarter. On a full year basis, we converted 91% of adjusted EBITDA to operating cash flow compared to our most recent expectation that would come in at about the level from 2023, which was 88%. Free cash flow from operations came in at 61% of adjusted EBITDA on a full year basis or 77% if excluding the $19.1 million Q1 investment in our AI cluster in Iceland. And finally, more of a housekeeping note, as of early December, the ratio between Opera's shares and our publicly traded ADS' has become one-to-one, which we achieved by merging two and two underlying shares. While it had no economic impact to any shareholder, it simplifies the structure and aligns amounts on a per share per ADS basis in this report and going forward. With that, I'll turn to guidance, most specifically for the first quarter, but will also provide an initial perspective on 2025 as a whole. On the revenue side, we are excited to see the major step-up we drove in Q4 continue into the first quarter. That is advertising at a new scale for Opera fueled by Opera ads on both our own and third party inventories. Within this, e-commerce continues to be the vertical that explains the bulk of the realized revenue growth acceleration and near term potential. All-in-all, we are guiding to a continued 29% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 at the midpoint, with a range of $130 million to $133 million. As you see from the guidance range, the growth rate might even tick-up a bit from Q4. With the confidence of nearly two-thirds of the quarter already behind us, that certainly represents a great start to the new year. We guide Q1 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $28 million to $30 million or a 22% margin at the midpoint. In line with the elevated growth rate, Q1 is expected to over-index on ad tech growth and consequently, we allow for cost of revenue items as a percentage of revenue to come in around the Q4 level. We expect marketing cost in the mid to low $30 million range and we expect cash compensation costs to increase about $1 million versus the Q4 level to be more similar to the recent average quarterly cost level. Other OpEx items combined are also expected to tick-up slightly versus Q4. Beyond Q1, moves like this would really compound if directly translated to guidance for the full year. Our initial 2025 guidance certainly reflects a higher than anticipated growth rate multiplied by a higher than anticipated 2024 revenue base. At the same time, and as from prior years, we prefer to leave room in our guidance so that we could revise upwards as trends mature over time. As a result, we indicate $555 million to $570 million revenue for the year, a 17% year-over-year growth rate and adjusted EBITDA of $132 million to $138 million or a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint. I'll underline the initial nature of the full-year guidance as we are in the midst of a period with rapid scaling and with limited historical reference points. To set a reasonable opening expectation for the year, we have modeled a more normalized sequential growth from Q1 to the later quarters of 2025. That results in a relatively stable trend of quarterly revenue growth measured by a two year CAGR, which captures the scale we have built-in recent quarters, while also evening out our forward-looking growth profile. In terms of cost and margin assumptions for the year, I'll share some directional perspectives. Our baseline expectation for 2025 is that the margin headwind from growth in cost of revenue items will be offset by a margin tailwind from economies of scale in the remainder of our cost base. We expect that cost of revenue items combined will reach about 30% of revenue in 2025, up from 27.6% in 2024. We expect that marketing costs will grow at a year-over-year percentage in the low teens, with dollar amounts increasing quarter-to-quarter from the Q1 starting points, in a step-wise fashion and in a way that supports continued healthy ROI on this spend. We expect both cash compensation and all other OpEx items pre-adjusted EBITDA combined to grow at year-over-year percentage rates in the mid to-high single-digits. In other words, marketing, compensation and the sum of the other smaller OpEx items are all expected to continue declining as a percentage of revenue in 2025. In conclusion, that's a wrap on yet another year that came in well ahead of expectations across financial KPIs such as revenue, profitability and cash generation. We are excited about the speed with which we enter 2025 and look forward to giving you more color on how the year and outlook evolves with our Q1 release, which is just two months out. With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for questions.