Adam Comora
Analyst · Ryan Pfingst of B. Riley
This is Adam again. And we're really excited about the potential for the fuel station service segment. As a reminder, it's got 2 pieces there. One is, it's really got a good strategic value for OPAL fuels providing us off take in that transportation fuel market. And quite frankly, we're really excited about just the prospects of natural gas or renewable natural gas and heavy duty trucking. And the 15 liter rollout is -- we think has the potential to be really impactful. I would remind listeners, if right now Cummins is selling more 15 liter natural gas engines in China than they are diesel. And the U.S. is sitting on the largest long life reserve base of natural gas and it probably stays cheap to oil versus as long as the -- I can see. So there's all sorts of energy security benefits. It's disinflationary because it's cheaper than diesel. You still get 17% to 20% emission reductions. So we kind of feel like this is one where and then I think we all leaving aside that electricity demand and stress on our leaving aside that electricity demand and stress on our grids, just the performance in the battery weight and how do you get all that power to those sites. And we think hydrogen still looks like it's a little ways out, difficulty producing those molecules, transporting those molecules around. And we think natural gas is sitting right here with proven technology, cost effective, disinflationary. And now I also want to say that the 15 liter rollout never goes as fast as anybody wants. And this is not unique to this product model. We saw the same thing happen when the 12 liter engine was introduced. And I'd say this time around though, we've got a lot more engineering and marketing and experience with it like incumbent zones 100% of it this time, which last time was a 50-50 JV and probably didn't get all the attention and really, whether it be on the aftermarket support and that sort of thing. So we think the 15 liter is really primed for what could be accelerated adoption. And at the same time, as I was mentioning, we don't have all the product availability yet. When we looked at the beginning of 2024, 81% of the heavy duty market was covered by OEM product offerings. Right now, we're at 29% of how many of the OEMs are offering the product. Now, we're encouraged that Freightliner is going to begin taking orders on the product. I think I've heard in the beginning of next year, Q1 of '25 and start delivering on that product and that'll take us back up to, I don't know, about 70%. But we see a lot of good growth potential. We're having all those conversations now with new fleets that are looking at it. And you're really encouraged also where the price premium felt really high to us and others in the industry. And we're working with across the industry and equipment suppliers that we're going to have a product that'll really be economically attractive. And so yes to the answer on those questions where fleets are really digging in and feel like the trucking industry is thinking about this as a good answer to diesel and versus some of those other technologies. And there have been some roadblocks also on the regulatory side, which we think may ease up a little bit in terms of utilizing this technology and some other public policy support that could really accelerate it. So we're excited about the 15 liter engine. I think the fleets are excited about it and we just got to get the product out there. And the nice thing for us is you had mentioned UPS there, we're still seeing the good growth without that 15 liter engine because the customers that we've worked with and UPS being the largest one and I would remind folks, we built our first station for UPS in 2014 And since then, we've built 50 more. And we service those stations on a 24/7 basis, high reliability, high uptime. And we really think that's the poster child of what a successful deployment looks like. And as these major fleets look to roll those out, there aren't many people that have really done it successfully. And I would say, even shorter list of folks that have done it and it's really worked for those fleets. So we're excited about it. We still have some work to do to get the product out there. We still have some work to do with our channel partners to make it as cost effective and economic as possible. And we're excited to see how that sort of rolls through in 2025.