Adam Comora
Analyst · Johnson Rice & Company.
As I think, I mentioned in earlier, the feedback has been really strong so far. And I just want to give you a little bit of a flavor here on this Cummins 15-liter engine where the 12-liter engine, when that was first introduced, it was a JV between Cummins and Westport. And, Cummins, all that development effort was really funded at that JV level with maybe $30 million or $40 million of engineering work and maybe not quite much aftermarket support and that sort of thing. And after that JV then expired after 10 years, Cummins got all that technology and has now -- and they didn’t want to at that JV originally do a 15-liter rollout because it would have competed with Cummins’ original 15-liter diesel engine. Now that Cummins has taken that entire product in line and owns 100% of that technology, they are going full bore behind this 15-liter natural gas engine. I think they spent about $450 million to $500 million retooling their Cape Town [ph] plant for it, they’ve got all their engineering muscle and support behind it. And the feedback has been really positive so far. Where that 15-liter, not only is going to produce operational savings just by using CNG, but for these fleets then being able to burn RNG and have 0 Scope 1, 0 Scope 2 emissions, it’s a really powerful product. And, I also want to temper some enthusiasm here because you said what about 2024? They’re just taking the orders right now, the OEMs, for deliveries to start into the back half of 2024. So, it’s not going to be a material impact to our 2024 numbers in terms of fuel station services, but we expect to see a lot of business development activity over the next 12 months as it really starts getting deployed into ‘25 and ‘26. And, there are a lot of folks out there thinking that that product could reach 8% to 10% market share and they’ve certainly got the capability at their manufacturing plant to hit those kinds of numbers, today, quite frankly. So, that and that would be a tripling of how many of those new trucks go on the road each year, which really has implications for our fuel station service business in terms of what that could be looking like in ‘25, ‘26 and ‘27. And the product is doing really well in China right now. I think they’re up to about, I don’t know, 25,000 engines or so in China. So, we’re excited about it. And, we’re calling it green shoots right now. I know how Wall Street works and everybody wants to know about next quarter. So, this one looks like it’s something that’s going to be -- could be intact as we look at ‘25, ‘26 and ‘27 that sort of thing.