Earnings Labs

Old National Bancorp (ONBPO)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 22, 2018

$24.92

-0.82%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Old National Bancorp third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC’s Regulation FD. Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the Investor Relations page at oldnational.com and will be archived there for 12 months. Before turning the call over, management would like to remind everyone that, as noted on slide 2, certain statements on today’s call may be forward-looking in nature and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ from those discussed. The company’s risk factors are fully disclosed and discussed within its SEC filings. In addition, certain slides contain non-GAAP measures, which management believes provide more appropriate comparisons. These non-GAAP measures are intended to assist investors’ understanding of performance trends. Reconciliation for these numbers are contained within the appendix of the presentation. I’d now like to turn the call over to Bob Jones for opening remarks. Mr. Jones.

Robert Jones

Management

Great. Thank you, Dorothy. And good morning, everyone, and welcome to Old National’s third-quarter earnings call. We’re awful glad you're here with us this morning. Joining me are Jim Ryan, Daryl Moore, Jim Sandgren, John Moran and Lynell Walton. And as always, following our prepared comments, we’ll be available to answer your questions. So, the headline for this call could simply be, “This morning announced their best quarterly net income in their 184-year history.” We could then just drop the mic. It’s really not our style and somehow I don't think you would appreciate that hubris. And more importantly, there are several subtext to the quarter that need further detail. One of those subtexts are what we call themes of discipline. This quarter reflected the continued discipline that we have built in our operating model. We have disciplined credit by focusing on the granularity of our portfolio as evidenced by our average commercial loan origination for the quarter being slightly over $500,000. Lending only in our markets and not purchasing syndicated credit and our strong underwriting led to only 6 basis points of charge-offs for the quarter. Similarly, the discipline culture that we have built around expense management drove an adjusted efficiency ratio of 58.6% and a year-over-year improvement in our operating leverage of more than 400 basis points. We were also able to hold down deposit costs, which only increased 7 basis points in a rising rate and a highly competitive environment, which indicates the value of our deposit franchise in concert with the disciplined approach to pricing. M&A is another important area of discipline. And for context, while John Moran has done some incredible work for us, we've also discovered that he has his own unique vocabulary. We've come call these Moranisms. So, to use my first Moranism,…

James Ryan III

Management

Thank you, Bob. Starting on slide four, I will reiterate a few items we think are important to our record third quarter net income. Both reported and adjusted earnings per share were $0.34. The most significant distinction between the third quarter and the second quarter was the strong decline in our non-interest expense. The primary driver of this decline was the fully-realized savings from the Anchor-Minnesota transaction and ongoing efforts to improve operating leverage. Adjusted earnings per share excludes the items we noted on the slide. Moving to slide five, adjusted pretax pre-provision net revenue was 21% higher year-over-year. This result was driven by increased scale from recent partnerships, maintaining our strong low-cost deposit base and a continued focus on expense management. We have improved the operating leverage by 287 basis points and 434 basis points year-to-date and year-over-year respectively. Next, on slide six, as Bob mentioned, we had a large number of pay-offs and commercial deals being refinanced in the secondary market. Our loan yields improved from higher interest rates and higher-than-normal levels of interest collected non-accruals, which was offset by lower accretion income. Slide seven demonstrates our year-over-year change in earning assets. Again, this is very consistent with our stated strategy and ongoing balance sheet remix objectives. As a percentage of total earning assets, commercial loans are up almost 8%. Less productive earning assets, including indirect auto and securities, both continued to decline as a percentage of our total balance sheet. On a linked-quarter basis, looking at actual dollars outstanding, indirect was down almost 4%. Moving to slide eight, you can see our in-the-period deposit balances were unchanged at quarter-end. We continue to believe that stable, low-cost core funding creates a sustainable competitive advantage. Our deposit beta is now just 13% current cycle to date. As a reminder,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Jaffray.

Robert Jones

Management

Good morning, Nathan. How are you?

Nathan Race

Analyst

Doing well, thank you. I want to maybe just start on the loan growth outlook. Obviously, you guys are dealing with some payoffs this quarter that, I think, a lot of the industry has struggled with as well. But it sounds like production volumes have picked up noticeably on the commercial side of things. So, just curious to get your updated thoughts on how much you're thinking about the loan growth in the fourth quarter on a net basis and then into 2019 as well.

Robert Jones

Management

I think it’s consistent with what we’ve said before. Total loans will be somewhere mid-single digit, led by our commercial and CRE production, which should be high-single digit to low-double digit. But there's nothing we see in activity that is concerning. Our number one payoff was a large retail company that’s sold. And quite frankly, it was one that, given our concern on the retail sector, probably was headed to a lower grade. So, these things happen. And you just kind of go forward.

Nathan Race

Analyst

Okay, got it. And then, kind of thinking about the core margin going forward, Jim, I was wondering if you can provide the breakout between LIBOR and prime. Obviously, LIBOR kind of lagged the increase in prime that we saw during the third quarter. So, just curious if you could provide that breakdown and kind of how we should think about the progression of the core NIM with Klein coming on board just given a lot of the excess liquidity that you guys would be absorbing with that transaction.

James Ryan III

Management

Yeah. So, just generally speaking, we will benefit – the margin will benefit from the Klein partnership, slightly offset by the fact that we’re selling those branches in Wisconsin. And with respect to the total loan portfolio, still 42% variable; 22% of that's tied to LIBOR; 13% of that’s tied to prime; and then, we kind of have various other indices like treasuries that also make a part of the repricing. Commercial portfolios, 51% variable, with 30% of that or more tied to LIBOR.

Nathan Race

Analyst

Okay. And just to clarify on the 4Q guide, so that does not include the impact of the rate hike that we had here in September?

James Ryan III

Management

Yeah. I think we are kind of steady to slightly improving is where we would call the margin just generally speaking. Obviously, the margin benefited from slightly higher interest on non-accruals. But generally speaking, we’re steady to slightly positive.

Nathan Race

Analyst

Okay, got it. And if I could just sneak one more in on the accretion outlook, with Klein coming on board, does the $5 million or so of accretion scheduled for the fourth quarter, is that included in your guys’ forecast on slide 17 there?

James Ryan III

Management

No, it is not. Obviously, we are getting ready to do those marks as we close on the transaction. So, we’ll have slightly more accretion in terms of total dollars in the fourth quarter.

Nathan Race

Analyst

And any thoughts on accretion for 2019 with Klein coming on board, on top of what you guys have laid out on slide 17?

James Ryan III

Management

Yeah. Obviously, there will be some accretion that comes from that transaction, but I’ll just remind you that the credit mark is a lot lower than we’ve seen it from previous transactions. So, there’s just going to be a lot less volatility in those things. I think it will be closer to the way that the Anchor transaction came onboard in terms of total accretion contribution.

Robert Jones

Management

Yeah. I would just add – this is Bob – in general overall. In the outlook slide, at the back of the presentation, it really does not include Klein. So that's just what we would call legacy Old National pre-Klein since we haven’t been able to the marks and everything as we come through on the closing.

Nathan Race

Analyst

Right. Got it. I appreciate all the color, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

Robert Jones

Management

Good morning, Mr. McGratty. How are you?

Chris McGratty

Analyst · KBW.

Hey, Bob. Good morning. Just a question on expenses. You guys have had a very history of buying banks and then shutting a lot of branches and selling some non-strategics. How should we be thinking about just expenses going into 2019 once you get the savings from Klein? Are there any big investments that the bank needs to make or should this be – once we adjust for the kind of the cost savings that are targeted, this is a bank that can grow expenses with inflation.

Robert Jones

Management

Yeah, I think the latter is the better way to look at it, Chris. We clearly will have some investments, but our word of the day is reallocate. If you’ve got to make an investment, you’ve got to find ways to do it. We’re still not where we need to be in back room areas and certain other parts of the company as efficient as we want to be. But Jim Ryan has someone a great job of saying, if you need additional investment, you've got to find ways to fund it through your own reallocation. So, I think your analogy of using inflation as a barometer is a good one.

James Ryan III

Management

It’s still going to be a big focus. Quite frankly, I've got a history of going on the road, so we’d never be of sub-60 efficiency. And we’re there and we’re going to continue to focus on it as we build to scale in this model.

Chris McGratty

Analyst · KBW.

If I could ask about loan growth to Bob, you talked about payoffs and most of your peers have talked about that – and I think you talked about M&A being a factor, how much of the loss of loan growth, if you will, is going to the non-banks because that’s I think a theme that we’re all trying to figure out when does that stop?

Robert Jones

Management

The Yeah. Well, we wish we knew where it was going to stop. I’ll just give you an example. Our top five, the largest one I referenced was a retailer that sold the company and then we had a senior living care that sold. And then, the next three largest were all – went to the secondary market and they were real estate projects. A good example, we had a $10-plus-million credit in Kentucky. That's a very, very good client of ours, got a deal that – there's just no way we can compete with it. So, it tells you something, Chris. The secondary market acting the way it is the

Chris McGratty

Analyst · KBW.

One kind of technical, if I could get that in. The higher interest reversals, do you have a dollar amount that that was in the quarter that was flowing to the margin?

James Ryan III

Management

Chris, we’ll get it to you.

Robert Jones

Management

We’ll get it to you, Chris.

Chris McGratty

Analyst · KBW.

All right. Awesome. Thanks a lot.

Robert Jones

Management

Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens.

Robert Jones

Management

Hi, Terry.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Stephens.

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Just to be clear, X paydowns, was loan volume in line with what you were thinking about and talking about three months ago?

James Ryan III

Management

Yeah, pretty close. I think we’re slightly off. Part of it is really – as Daryl and I’ve talked about over time, we’re a little cautious towards non-owner-occupied commercial real estate. Some of the lack of production really was some of those credits that came out of our pipeline. But absent that, Terry, I think it’s right in line, particularly on the C&I side.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Stephens.

Okay. And then, just slide 13, so there’s basically about $0.02 headwind from the change in tax strategy or the tax credit business. Am I reading that slide correctly?

James Ryan III

Management

Yes. That’s what it contributed to us this year. We’ll continue to generate some business, which will generate a few fees, but de minimis in general. So, we won’t see a lot of that contribution come through in 2019. Probably in 2020, going forward, we’ll see some more. Based on your all feedback that you sense headwinds, it’s probably worth it because I think we spent a lot of time just explaining that business.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Stephens.

Yeah. I spent about 80% of my morning going through that slide as well. So, I appreciate that.

Robert Jones

Management

It’s all about you, T Mac. It’s all about you.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Stephens.

Appreciate it. And then, Bob, maybe just the last question for you. As you think about 2019, without speaking specific in terms of those targets, but what are you focused on? Is it ROA? Is it pre-provision net revenue growth? Is that return on capital? Kind of how do you evaluate next year and line up some financial metrics that you think will drive success at the company?

Robert Jones

Management

Yeah, that’s a great question, Terry. Yeah, I think ROTCE would be one we focus on. Efficiency ratio, still going to be very important for us as well, but pretax pre-provision net revenue would be third. But for us, we really think that ROTCE gives us a better sense. ROA is important, but, as you know, the asset side can have some fluctuations. So, we really like the return on investors capital.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Stephens.

Okay. Thanks, everyone. Talk to you later.

Robert Jones

Management

Thanks, T Mac.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Reevey with D.A. Davidson.

Robert Jones

Management

Good morning.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Good morning. How are you?

Robert Jones

Management

Doing great.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

I like the Moranisms.

Robert Jones

Management

So, we actually have a whole book of Moranisms. Turns out, we brought this up at dinner one night with John's wife and she's got a longer book of Moranisms.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

You should publish that one day. I'm sure it will be a best seller.

Robert Jones

Management

Well, if you put it on books [indiscernible 0:21:27.1], you’d have to run it twice the speed because that’s the way he speaks.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

So, my first question is related to – on the capital markets fee line item. That was up a lot linked quarter. Can you give us some color as to what was going on in that line item and how we should think about that particular line item going into the fourth quarter?

James Ryan III

Management

Yeah, it’s a swap. Rising rates, people are starting to use that product a lot more. I think we've moved in some of the more sophisticated market. And our [indiscernible 0:22:00.7] team does a great job of this. It’s really that kind of – where it’s coming from. Thinking about the fourth quarter, obviously, those are transactional in nature, but we clearly see a lot more interest from our clients as you move into the fourth quarter on that product.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

And then, sticking with the non-interest income line item, there was a decline in wealth management fees. Could you provide some color as to what was happening there?

Robert Jones

Management

Equity markets.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Makes sense.

Robert Jones

Management

A lot of that fee is based on the value of the portfolio, while a large portion of that book is fixed income. Obviously, as the markets have gone through their volatility, we've seen some impact. And other thing, there’s a volatility in that business because a lot of that fee comes from the maturing of wills. And when you get that fee, it’s hard to predict. But, anyhow, I think consistent in the fourth quarter. You all look at that.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Great. And then, last question. The jump in non-accruals, were there any commonality between those credits?

Robert Jones

Management

No. Actually, I'm glad you asked the question. So, two large credits that moved. One is a real estate deal that's been on the book since probably 2007, 2008. It’s a TIF. And with TIFs, you go back and reevaluate property tax. Property taxes came in lower. So, the value to the TIF was affected. So, we made the decision to move that to non-accrual. We're comfortable with where we are with the credit. We continue to work through it. The other one is a medical company. It probably just got a little over their skis and we're working with them to recapitalize and do some things. Both of those loans, at least the medical company is paying as agreed. The other one is paying. Excuse me, I’ll just correct me, medical company is not paying as agreed now. No commonality, two exceptions to the – as we see it.

Kevin Reevey

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Great. Thank you very much.

Robert Jones

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital.

Robert Jones

Management

Good morning, Mr. Arfstrom.

Jon Arfstrom

Analyst · RBC Capital.

Good morning, everyone. Just want to talk a little bit about funding costs and deposit costs. Your numbers have been better – better than your peers – and I'm just curious, and I know the balance is relatively flat and that's fine, but I'm just curious where you're seeing opportunities to grow. And give us an idea of some of the hot spots where you're seeing some of the deposit pricing pressure.

Robert Jones

Management

Yeah. As you would expect, the deposit pressures, they are really in the larger markets like Indianapolis that have been just hyper-competitive. There are opportunities to grow. We've had good success in Southwest Michigan, Grand Rapids. We're seeing actually, Jon, some good opportunities up in the Twin Cities. I think it's the value of, again, this franchise that Jim's built, which is we can fund in some of these non-competitive markets and then kind of do some targeted price exceptions. Interesting, you mentioned deposit balances. We went back; and I think eight of the last nine years, the third quarter has been flat to down for us. So, there's just something in our DNA in the third quarter that our clients tend to go down. And, obviously, we see some stronger seasonality in the fourth quarter.

Jon Arfstrom

Analyst · RBC Capital.

Okay. Then back on Chris McGratty's question on the payoffs, are you hopeful that that will slow? Do you see any signs that some of those payoffs could slow? It seems like it was unusually large this quarter.

Robert Jones

Management

Yeah. It was unusually large. Again, I gave you kind of the high level. The largest one was one, quite frankly, Daryl was probably happy that it paid off. All things being equal, we think it's going to slow. Activity is good. We just had all of our commercial relationship managers together the week before last up in Indianapolis, and the attitude, morale was excellent. They're busy. There is a little bit of stupidity creeping back into the market, particularly on non-owner occupied CRE. So, if we're going to have some softness, that might be where it is. But other than that, we're seeing good commercial C&I growth. So, we feel good.

Jon Arfstrom

Analyst · RBC Capital.

Okay. And then, last one on M&A. You touched on pricing in your prepared comments. But talk a little bit about how active the market is in terms of the frequency of deals you're being shown and what really is the issue? Is it just price? The private banks haven't adjusted pricing to the public markets?

Robert Jones

Management

I think it's a little bit of that. And I think it's – we don't feel compelled to have to do anything, Jon. To answer your first part, we're seeing a lot of books. John Moran is busy looking in a lot. He is getting a lot inbound calls. He’s using a lot of Moranisms as he responds. But we're just going to stay very disciplined. We just do not feel compelled to have to do anything. We've built a franchise that we feel very proud of. If we have the right opportunity and the right market and based on our pricing parameters, we can form a partnership. We're happy to do it. We're not going to go into markets that don't make sense and we're not going to pay prices that put our shareholders at risk.

Jon Arfstrom

Analyst · RBC Capital.

Yeah, okay. All right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

You have a follow-up question from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens.

Robert Jones

Management

Always good to have you back T Mac.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Sorry. Just one last question on the fourth quarter expense outlook. If I do the 220 adjusting for the third quarter, I'm looking at about a $112 million, and then plus 1 or 2 for the tax credit amortization. Am I looking that correctly?

James Ryan III

Management

Yeah. That's correct, Terry. That would be a little bit on the high side, as you think about it. We've got some true-ups you look at normally in the fourth quarter that are all seasonality. You have medical insurance, incentives and other things, but until we get those true-ups, we really don't have a good barometer. But I would say your $112 million is a little bit on the high side, but the math works.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Are there any closing remarks?

Robert Jones

Management

Well, the only thing I would say is, this morning, our general counsel was supposed to bring donuts into us and he didn't. So, if we're a little cranky in the call, it's related to that. Thank you all for being with us. If you have follow-up questions, Lynell is always available. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes Old National's call. Once again, a replay along with the presentation slides will be available for 12 months on the Investor Relations page of Old National's website, oldnational.com. A replay of the call will also be available by dialing 1-855-859-2056. Conference ID code, 8898768. This replay will be available through November 5th. If anyone has additional questions, please contact Lynell Walton at 812-464-1366. Thank you for your participation in today's conference call.