Micah Conrad
Analyst · Stephens.
Thanks, Vincent. Let me grab the first part of your question. And then if I may ask the second one, remind me. But the -- in terms of the guidance and the ranges, our 5% to 10% managed receivables growth range does come from our just overall operating framework, which is based on the market we play. And we think it's reasonable to expect 5% to 10% on average and over time. So we sort of start the year there. We feel good about that range. In terms of the credit, and I'll talk a little bit about both of these relative to macro factors and then our own portfolio. With credit, there's certainly a lot of factors that will influence the 5.6% to 6.0% range, include things like unemployment, wage growth, inflation are 3 that I think of immediately. That said, we have a well-diversified portfolio as well by state. So the state level economics are also very important, not just national level stats. And within our book, overall delinquency levels, obviously, are a big factor, but the velocity at which delinquency moves to loss is also key. And if you look at 2021, the ratio between 90 plus and losses a quarter later is still running lower than historical norms. That's due to both continued performance of back-end delinquency roll rates, which we've talked about before, but also recoveries that remain really strong. And so both of those things, how they normalize over the next year are going to also influence that range on charge-offs and then to a lesser degree, of course, the receivables growth, which is a denominator. I think on the receivables side of things, just following up on the operating framework where I started a little bit less sensitive to credit and macro factors. In general, our consumers have demand for credit when they feel good about the future. So a healthy economic backdrop is important. Competition plays a factor as well, but we aren't seeing really any impediments to growth there. I think your second question, which was around net interest margin as it relates to yield. As we mentioned, we expect full year yield to be around 4Q '21 levels. We think 1Q just from normal seasonal trends will be a bit lower than the 4Q '21 level. But we do anticipate NIM, which is to put credit losses aside for a second. If you look at net interest margin, which incorporates our interest expense, we expect that to be strong next year. We do have significant tailwinds on our interest expense, which we believe will offset the year-over-year impact of the decline in yield. And then obviously, with our guide on capital generation, return on receivables, we expect a very, very strong performance that compares well against pre-pandemic periods.