Peter Kuipers
Analyst · Craig Hallum Capital. Your line is open
Thank you Randall. Our fourth quarter 2019 revenue of $248 million was up 17% over the fourth quarter of 2018 and up 9% from the third quarter 2019. Our full year 2019 revenue of $897 million was up 14% from 2018. The year of a year increase in revenue were largely due to an increase in XT Series, XR2 and IP implementation, growth in annual service and maintenance revenue from a large install base of equipment, as well as increased population health solutions revenue. As discussed in the past, the population health solutions include medication synchronization, patient messaging, and certain other adherent solutions. The fourth quarter earnings per share in accordance with GAAP is $0.51 per share up from $0.36 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2018, an increase of 42%. Our full year 2019 earnings per share in accordance with GAAP was $1.42, up from $0.91 per share in 2018, representing an increase of 54%. The year over year increases in earnings per share is largely due to higher revenue. In addition to GAAP financial results, we report our results on a non GAAP basis which excludes stock compensation expense amortization of the tangible assets associated with acquisitions, acquisition and restructuring related expenses, tax reform and restructuring income tax benefits and expenses, certain cost contingent gains and amortization of debt issuance costs. We use non-GAAP financial statements in addition to GAAP financial statements because we believe it is useful for investors to understand the effects of amortization of acquisition related costs, and non-cash stock compensation expenses that are a component of our reported results as well as certain events and acquisition and restructuring related expenses which are unrelated to our ongoing operations. A full reconciliation of a GAAP to non-GAAP results is included in our fourth quarter earnings press release and is posted on our website. Fourth quarter 2019 non-GAAP EPS was $0.77 per share compared to $0.70 per share in the same period last year, representing a 10% increase. Full year 2019 non-GAAP EPS was $2.81 per share compared to $2.09 per share in 2018, representing a 34% increase. Similar to the increase in our GAAP EPS, the increase in earnings per share on a non-GAAP basis is again largely due to growing revenue. In addition to strong revenue and profitability growth, there are additional indicators that demonstrate the momentum and scaling of our business. First, product bookings for the full year 2019 increased by approximately 14% from 2018 to $813 million. This is a record for the business and exceeded the high point of a guidance range by approximately $23 million. Second product backlog as of December 31, 2019 increased by approximately 23% from December 13, 2018 to $588 million. Third non-GAAP gross margins exceeded 50%, five-zero for the full year 2019 and expanded by approximately 90 basis points from 2018. Forth our non-GAAP operating margin was 14.8% for total year 2019 and expanded by approximately 190 basis points from 2018. Lastly, during the fourth quarter of 2019, we again entered into a record number of multimillion dollar commercial agreements. The vast majority of these multimillion dollar product bookings are with customers adopting multiple products on the Omnicell platform. Our total product backlog as of December 31 2019, was $588 million up 23% from last year. Of this amount $471 million is considered short term in nature and $170 million is considered long term. In comparison as of December 31, 2018, our total backlog was $478 million, of which $375 million is considered short term and $103 million is considered long term. Let's now move to the balance sheet, cash flow. At December 31 2019, our cash flow balance was $127 million down from $137 million at September 30, 2019. During the fourth quarter of 2019, we repaid $30 million on our outstanding debt leaving the remaining outstanding funding debt balance of $50 million. As of December 31 2019, the business was in a net cash position of $77 million up from $57 million at September 30, 2019. Cash flow from operations during the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, was $35 million and $145 million respectively, compared to $47 million and $104 million for the comparable periods last year. The increase in operating cash flow for the full year is primarily driven by increased net income and improvements in working capital. Free cash flow generated in the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2019 was $20 million and $18 million respectively, compared to $35 million and $50 million for the comparable periods last year. The increase in free cash flow for the full year is primarily due to the increases in cash flow mentioned earlier. Accounts receivable days sales outstanding for the fourth quarter were 81 days, down one day from the previous quarter and down four days from December 31, 2018. The decrease in DSO from last quarter and the prior year's primarily due to higher sales and increased collections. Inventory at December 31, 2019, were approximately $108 million up $2 million for the previous quarter and up $7 million from December 31, 2018. The increase is primarily driven by growth demand for the XT Series, XR2 and IV product lines. Our headcount was 2,698 at December 31, 2019, up 73 from the end of the previous quarter and up 222 from the same quarter last year. The increase reflects continued investment in the business to deliver product innovation and new offerings, as well as increases for manufacturing, implementation and service personnel needed to support our business as it continues to expand. We expect this hiring trend to continue as we grow the business. [Indiscernible] for the long term financial framework was presented at the Investor Day on December 10, 2019 at the ASHP conference and also at the JP Morgan conference on January 15th, earlier this year. Included in our fourth quarter earnings release are a few slides summarizing the long term financial framework. Slide number three, shows a summary of our organic revenue drivers. We believe that there are significant challenges in pharmacy that we discussed earlier that drive the demand for our solutions and represent large market opportunities. Looking at our market and growth assumptions in our longer financial model, we expect to continue to grow revenue organically over the next five years at a CAGR of approximately 10% to 12%. The key areas of growth are as follows; point of care, central pharmacy, retail institutional and payers. For our point of care solutions, we expect future revenue growth from the following areas. First, its expansion with existing customers as they continue to increase the utilization of our dispensing systems in more areas within the hospitals. Second is prior generation replacements or upgrades. Through the fourth quarter of 2019, we have received orders from customers representing approximately 23%, two-three of our legacy installed base of automated dispensing cabinets, which is up from 11% as of the end of 2018. We expect to reprise an update on this metric every quarter. Third growth areas is [indiscernible] and market share gains. Fourth growth area we is see innovation -- is growth from in services including professional services that we announced in December last year. Given these drivers we believe that this part of the business will grow at an organic CAGR of approximately 10% over the next five years. Central pharmacies the next area of significant opportunity to digitize and automate pharmacy to help increase safety, reduce drug spend, and optimize labor. For our central pharmacy solutions, we expect future and continued revenue growth from upgrades of high generation robots in our install base, carousel to robot replacements, greenfield opportunities, and growth from innovation and new offerings. Overall, we believe that this part of the business will grow at an organic CAGR of approximately 17% over the next five years. Finally, for our retail and institutional pharmacy and payer solutions, which we expect future and continued revenue growth on the following drivers. First growth in population health solutions including software solutions, adherence packaging and automation, growth from expected new innovation service offerings. And overall we believe that this part of the business will grow at an organic CAGR of approximately 10% over the next five years. The estimated organic revenue growth in these two areas is supported by estimated large 10 or so addressable markets, and is anchored by many sole source long term agreements with large health systems, retail pharmacy chains and payers in our customer base. Let’s now move to long term non-GAAP operating margin profitability. Forward baseline in 2019 of approximately 15%, one-five, non-GAAP operating margin. We believe that we can increase non-GAAP operating margin to approximately 18%, one-eight by 2024. Slide number 4 gives a summary of the drivers of non-GAAP operating margin. We expect the drivers of non-GAAP operating margin expansion to be follows and expect benefit from economies of scale, including supply chain procurement savings and operating expense leverage. We expect benefits from long-term customer agreements. We expect benefits from manufacturing and design, savings. And we also expect benefits from process improvements and efficiencies, including benefits from improved infrastructure and other investments. We expect these benefits to be partly offset by investments in innovation, to support the growth opportunities we discussed. Investments in customer success and experience including professional services. And investments and infrastructure and IT investments to support the scaling of our business. On Slide number 5, we have summarized our objectives. We're committed to strong long-term organic growth with a goal of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion by 2024, representing a five year organic CAGR of approximately 10% to 12%. We're driving operating leverage with a goal of about 18%, one-eight, non-GAAP operating margin by 2024. We expect the business to deliver between 90% and 110%. Free cash flow prefers [ph] of GAAP net income through 2024 while we are investing in innovation, customer success, and supporting infrastructure. Lastly, we are continuously evaluating potential acquisition opportunities for the right strategic and financial fits. Before we move to guidance, I want to acknowledge that you may have questions about the impact of the corona virus on our business. First and foremost, the safety and well-being of our people is our number one priority. We are in close contact with our employees, customers and suppliers in China. And we are reviewing communications by government and healthcare organizations as we monitor the situation. At this point, given that we have a small employee presence, and a small customer base in the regions -- in the region, and none of our suppliers are based in the Wuhan province or proximity, we do not expect nor have we factored into our guidance, any meaningful operational or financial impact. That said, the situation is uncertain and rapidly evolving. So we will continue to monitor it closely. And we are evaluating potential scenario so we believe that we're well prepared. Now moving to our full year 2020 guidance. We expect 2020 product bookings to be between $865 million and $900 million. The midpoint of this range represents approximately 9% growth over 2019. Measures from 2017 we are using the midpoint of the guidance range for 2020. This represents a CAGR of approximately 16%, one-six. We expect 2020 total revenues to be between $1 billion and $1.20 billion. The midpoint of this range represents approximately 13% growth over 2019. These breaks down as follows. We expect 2020 product revenue to be between $752 million and $768 million and we expect 2020 service revenue to be between $248 million and $252 million. Using the midpoints of the provider ranges, we expect non-GAAP operating margin for 2020 to be slightly below 16%, up from 14.8% in 2019. We expect 2020 non-GAAP EPS to be between $2.96 per share and $3.16 per share. The midpoint of this range represents approximately 9% growth over 2019. It is important to note that as we discussed in the first quarter of 2019 earnings call that we had a non-operational benefit of around $0.07 per share related to tax benefits realized from the exercise of employee and stock options. For 2020, we are assuming an average effective blended tax rate of approximately 14% in our non-GAAP EPS guidance range. For the first quarter of 2020, we expect the fall -- we're seeing the following guidance. Based largely on the ending product backlog from the fourth quarter of 2019 and the recurring revenue from services and consumables, we expect total revenue to be between $221 million and $227 million. This breaks down as follows. We expect product revenues to be between $163 million and $168 million. And we expect service revenue to be between $58 million and $59 million. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.52 and $0.57 per share. As Randall mentioned, we are very pleased with the strong results of 2019 and we look forward to continuing to deliver profitable results in 2020 as we continue to execute on the long-term strategy. With that we would like to open the call for your questions.