Phil Angelastro
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thank you, John and good morning. As John said, our results for the first quarter of 2019 were better than our expectations. While organic revenue growth was within our expected range, our operating profit and margins were stronger than we expected. Our results were driven by several items, including the strong performance of our agencies, the continuing impact of our cost efficiency initiatives, costs and benefits from the repositioning actions we took in the third quarter of 2018, including a favorable change in business mix in the quarter from the disposition of certain non-strategic underperforming agencies in the second half of 2018. In addition, we recorded a net gain on few smaller dispositions in Q1, which after considering the effect the negative impact FX translation had on our operating profit also had a slightly positive impact on our margins. Turning on Slide 3. For the first quarter, organic revenue growth totaled 2.5% or $91 million. Additionally, due to the continued strengthening of U.S. dollar since the second half of last year, changes in currency rates negatively impacted our reported revenue by $122 million or 3.4%. And finally, dispositions in connection with our repositioning actions, primarily in our CRM execution and support discipline, exceeded revenue from acquisitions in the quarter as we continue to cycle through the disposals we made in the second half of 2018. The net impact from acquisitions and dispositions reduced our first quarter revenue by $130 million or about 3.6%. In total, our reported revenue decreased 4.4% to $3.5 billion in the quarter. In a few minutes, I will discuss the drivers of the changes in revenue in more detail. Turning to Slide 1 and the income statement items below revenue. Our Q1 EBITDA was $451 million, up $1 million from Q1 of '18 or three-tenths of a percent with the resulting in margin of 13%, up 60 basis points. Our operating income or EBIT for the quarter was $429 million, up 1.7% when compared to the first quarter of last year. While our operating margin of 12.4% represented an 80 basis point improvement over Q1 of last year. A few key points in regards to our margin improvement. We continue to seek out opportunities to increase operational efficiencies. These initiatives are primarily focused in the areas of real estate, back office services, procurement and IT and continue to positively impact our operating performance. Additionally, as we described last quarter, we continue to see benefits from the change in business mix, resulting from disposition of several non-strategic lower margin or underperforming agencies. And lastly, during to quarter, we recorded a net gain on the disposition of a few agencies, including MarketStar, a U.S. based sales support business, which after considering the effect of the negative impact of FX translation on our operating profit had a slightly positive impact on our margins. Net interest expenses for the quarter was $46 million, down $900,000 compared to the first quarter of 2018, and down $7.1 million versus Q4 of 2018. Interest expenses on our debt increased $3.1 million in the first quarter of 2019 versus Q1 of '18. Lightening higher rates on our fixed to floating expense interest rates loss which is partially offset by a decrease in interest expense on commercial paper compared to the prior year. To take advantage of unique opportunity, in February 2019, we issued €520 million of short-term senior notes at a private placement to investor outside the United States. The notes are unsecured, non-interest bearing and mature on August 2019. As a result, in the first quarter of 2019, we were able to substantially reduce our other short-term borrowing needs, including our commercial paper issuances. The reduction in commercial paper borrowing is expected to continue through the maturity of the notes in Q3. Interest income increased $1.6 million versus Q1 of 2018, lightening higher cash balances available for investments. And when compared to Q4 of 2018, interest expense on our debt decreased $2.9 million. Due to the decrease in commercial paper activity as described above, interest and amortization expense on our pension obligations also decreased versus last quarter. And lastly, we also saw an increase in our interest income versus Q4. Regarding income taxes, our reported effective tax rate for the first quarter was 26.8% in line with our expected 2019 full year rate. As a reminder, last year's Q1 tax rate benefited from the successful resolution of foreign tax claims, which reduced last year's quarterly income tax expense by $13.3 million. Earnings from our affiliates was marginally negative in the first quarter of 2019, while the allocation of earnings for the minority shareholders on our less than fully owned subsidiaries decreased to $16.5 million due to our disposition activity, as well as the impact of FX. As a result, net income for the first quarter was $263 million, down slightly when compared to our reported Q1 2018 net income. And after excluding the $13.3 million addition to net income from the settlement of the foreign tax claims from last year, 2019's net income would have increased 4.9%. Now turning to Slide 2. Income available for common shareholders for the quarter was also $263 million and our diluted share count for the quarter decreased 3.1% versus Q1 of last year to $224.2 million. As a result, our diluted EPS for the first quarter was $1.17, which increased $0.03 or 2.6% when compared to our reported Q1 EPS for last year. Positive impact from the settlement of the foreign tax claims increased last year's EPS by $0.06. So excluding this item, the increase versus last year's first quarter would have been $0.09 or 8.3%. Turning to components of our revenue change in the first quarter, which are detailed on Page 3. On a year-over-year basis, U.S. dollar's continued strengthening created large headwinds in our reported revenue. The impact of changes in currency rates decrease reported revenue by 3.4% or $122 million in revenue for the quarter. And as has been the case for the last two quarters, the strengthening was widespread. On a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, the dollar strengthened against every one of our major foreign currencies. The largest FX movements in the quarter are from the euro, the UK pound, the Australian dollar and the Brazilian real. Looking forward, currencies stayed where they currently are. FX could negatively impact our revenues by approximately 2.5% during the second quarter then moderate in the second half of the year, resulting in a negative impact of approximately 25 basis points for the second half and 1.5% for the full year. But obviously, it's difficult to make assumptions on how foreign currency rates will move over the next few months let alone the balance of 2019. The impact of our recent acquisitions net of dispositions decreased revenue by $130 million in the quarter or 3.6%, primarily driven by the Sellbytel disposition and other actions we took in the second half of last year, and a few dispositions we completed in the back half of the first quarter. Based on transactions we completed to-date and since we will cycle through the most significant of last year's dispositions by end of the third quarter, our current expectations are that the impact of our acquisition activity net of dispositions will continue to be negative; approximately 4% for the second quarter and approximately 3% for the third quarter and for the full year. Turning to organic growth, which was up $91 million on a global basis for the quarter, or 2.5%. The performance of our disciplines was mixed. Our advertising and healthcare disciplines both had solid organic growth in the quarter. Year end consumer experience was marginally negative due primarily to reductions in revenue at our events businesses, which offset strong performance in our precision marketing agencies in the quarter. And PR was down a bit, while CRM execution and support continued to underperform. Geographically, all regions were positive in the quarter except for Latin America with our domestic and Continental European regions having the strongest performance. Slide 4 shows our mix of business by discipline. For the first quarter, split was 55% for advertising and 45% for marketing and services. As to their organic growth by discipline, our advertising discipline was up 5.1%. Advertising's organic growth continues to lead by our media businesses, notably the continued strong performance by Hearts and Science. While our global and national advertising agencies performed well with only a few exceptions. CRM consumer experience was down six tenths of a percent for the quarter, primarily driven by declines in our events businesses, which faced the very difficult comp, partly driven by last year's Winter Olympic in South Korea. Results for the rest of the discipline were mostly positive, driven by strong performance from our precision marketing group, branding, which also had growth, while our shopper and sales promotion businesses were down slightly. While CRM execution and support continued to underperform this quarter. Our domestic businesses while negative versus the prior year did show improvement versus Q4. PR was down five tenths of a percent. Performance in this discipline was also mixed by geographic regions. The UK and Asia were both positive. North America was marginally negative with Continental Europe and Latin America both lagging in the quarter. And Healthcare was up 6.8%. As has been the case over the last past few quarters, growth has been well balanced with positive results across all regions. On Slide 5, which details the regional mix of business, you can see during the quarter the split was 54% in the U.S., 3% for rest of North America, 10% in the UK, 18% for the rest of Europe, 11% for Asia Pacific, 3% for Latin America and the balance for the Middle East and African markets. As for the details of our performance by region, organic revenue growth in the first quarter in U.S. was 2%, led by our advertising and media agencies, as well as our healthcare agencies with mixed performance from our CRM consumer experience agencies, while our CRM execution and support agencies declined. Our UK businesses were positive again this quarter, up 1.3% and led by our advertising, healthcare and PR agencies. However, the continuing uncertainty surrounding how the British government will formalize its departure from the EU certainly clouds the outlook for the market. The rest of Europe was up 4% organically in the quarter. In the Euro markets, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, continue to turn in strong performances across disciplines this quarter; Germany returned to positive organic growth, while France lagged; our organic growth in Europe outside the eurozone was positive as well; organic growth in the Asia-Pacific region facing a fairly strong comp to Q1 of 2018 2.1% with Australia, India, Japan and New Zealand, leading the way this quarter; our greater China agencies down organically in total for the quarter, largely from the impact of non-recurring project revenue in Q1 '18 in our events agencies in that market. Latin America was down 3% in the quarter with the continuing issues in the Brazilian economy, dragging down the region's performance overall. Elsewhere in the region, we continue to see positive performance from our agencies in Mexico. The Middle East and Africa, which is our smallest regions, was up 12.8% for the quarter. On Slide 6, we present our revenue by industry sector. And comparing the first quarter revenue for 2019 to 2018, you can see a slight shift in our mix of business, an increase in the contribution from our former industry clients, offset with a decrease in the percentage of revenue from our technology clients, primarily resulting from the Sellbytel disposition. Turning to our cash flow performance. On Slide 7, you can see that in the first quarter, we generated $341 million of free cash flow, including changes in working capital. As for our primary uses of cash on Slide 8, dividends paid to our common shareholders were $135 million, down slightly versus Q1 last year, is a reduction in our outstanding common shares as a result of repurchase activity over the past year. The $0.05 per share increase in the quarterly dividend that we announced in February will impact our cash payments from Q2 forward. Dividends paid to our non-controlling interest shareholders totaled $17 million. Capital expenditures were $27 million, down compared to 2018 due to less leasehold improvement activity. Acquisitions, including earn-out payments, totaled $7 million, reflecting a decrease in activity so far this year when compared to our Q1 activity last year. And stock repurchases, net of the proceeds received from stock issuances under our employee share plans, totaled $284 million, reflecting an increase in the activity this year versus last year. All-in, we outspent our free cash flow by about $130 million in the first quarter. Regarding our capital structure at the end of the quarter, our total debt is $5.5 billion, up about $600 million since this time last year and as of this past year end. As we mentioned earlier in February of 2019, we issued short-term senior notes of €520 million in a private placement to an investor outside the United States. The notes are unsecured, non-interest-bearing and mature this August and therefore are classified as short-term on our balance sheet. Our net debt position at the end of the quarter was $2.04 billion, up about $800 million compared to year end December 31, 2018 balance. The increase in net debt was a result of the typical uses of working capital and historically occurred in our first quarter which totaled about $740 million, as well as the use of cash in excess of our free cash flow of approximately $130 million. These increases in net debt were partially offset by the cash we received from our disposition activity of $65 million and the effect of exchange rates on cash during Q1, which increased our cash balance by about $25 million. Compared to March 31, 2018, our net debt is down $282 million. The decrease was primarily driven by the positive change in operating capital during the past 12 months of approximately $340 million and the cash proceeds received from the sale of subsidiaries during the last year of $370 million. Partially offsetting these increases over the past 12 months was the over-spend of our free cash flow of approximately $170 million and the negative impact of FX on our cash balances, which totaled just over $200 million. As far our debt ratios, they remained solid. Our total debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.3 times, reflecting the issuance of euro denominated debt this quarter. While our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio fell to 0.9 times. And due to the year-over-year increase in our interest expense, our interest coverage ratio decreased to 9.8 times but remained strong. And finally on Slide 10, you can see we continue to manage and build the company through a combination of well-focused internal development initiatives and prudently priced acquisitions. For the last 12 months, our return on invested capital ratio was 25%, while our return on equity was 52.6%. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we have included a number of other supplemental slides in the presentation materials for your review. But at this point, we're going to ask the operator to open the call for questions.