Philip Angelastro
Analyst · Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead
Thank you, John, and good morning. As John said, our results for the first quarter of 2018 were in line with our expectations. Our agencies continue to meet our clients’ needs while operating in an ever changing marketing landscape. As summarized on Slide 3, our reported revenue for Q1 grew by 1.2% to $3.6 billion. The components of that growth included organic revenue growth which was 2.4% in the quarter which fell within the range of our expectations for organic growth of 2% to 3% for the full year. With regard to FX, due to the general weakening of the U.S. dollar over the past year, the impact of changes in currency rates increased reported revenue by $151 million or 4.2%. Dispositions continued to exceed revenue from acquisitions in the quarter as we come close to cycling through the disposal of Novus, our print media business which we sold early in the second quarter of 2017. Acquisition revenue partially offset the disposition impact, including revenue from recent additions of Snow Companies in the U.S. and Brain Group in Germany. The net impact reduced our first quarter revenue by $153 million or about 4.2%. And lastly, as you are aware, we’re required to adopt FASB new revenue recognition standard known as ASC 606 effective at the beginning of this year. The impact of applying the revenue recognition standard reduced our reported revenue by approximately $42.5 million or 1.2% for the quarter. Later in my remarks I will discuss in more detail the drivers of the changes in revenue, including the expected impact of the new accounting standard going forward. Turning to Slide 1 on the income statement items below revenue, operating income or EBIT for the quarter increased to 422 million or 1.4% with operating margin of 11.6% unchanged versus Q1 of last year. Our Q1 EBITDA increased to 449 million or about 1% and the resulting EBITDA margin of 12.4% also was level with Q1 of last year. There are a few items to note regarding margins. ASC 606 did have a minor impact on our operating profit due to a change in the timing of recognition of some of our incentive compensation from our clients. Had we followed the same revenue recognition rules as last year, our EBIT would have been approximately $6.5 million higher in Q1. However, because this change is principally timing related, we expect the net impact for the year to also be minor and less than the Q1 impact overall. In addition to the adoption of the new revenue recognition standard, on January 1st, we adopted ASU 2017-07 which requires that we reclassify a portion of our pension and post-employment expense primarily the interest-related components from salary and service costs to the lower operating income as part of interest expense. A new accounting presentation requires us to restate the prior periods so they are comparable. The amount re-classed for both Q1 of 2018 and Q1 of 2017 was approximately $6 million. The new standard does not have an impact on pre-tax profit or net income. We’ll continue to pursue our ongoing companywide internal initiatives to increase efficiencies, particularly in our back office operations while balancing the need for continued investments in our businesses to pursue sustained growth in the future. Additionally, given the vast majority of our expenses were denominated in the same local currencies as our revenues, the impact of changes in FX rates on our Q1 operating margin was negligible. Net interest expense for the quarter was 46.9 million, down 3.1 million versus the 50 million for the fourth quarter of 2017 and up 1.5 million versus Q1 of 2017. As previously discussed, in 2018 we adopted ASU 2017-07 and as a result a portion of our pension and post-employment expense has been included in net interest expense and the prior year has been restated to be consistent with the current year’s presentation. Run rate for these expenses in 2017 and 2018 was approximately $6 million per quarter. Gross interest expense in the first quarter was up about $0.5 million compared to the fourth quarter and interest income was up about $3.5 million also when compared to Q4. Gross interest expense increased by approximately $3 million compared to Q1 of 2017 primarily due to a reduction in the benefits from our interest rate swaps. And interest income increased by approximately 1.5 million. Turning to taxes, our effective tax rate for the first quarter was 24.3% down from 29.2% last year. The primary driver of the lower effective rate was the lower U.S. tax rate as a result of the 2017 Tax Act which reduced the federal statutory tax rate to 21%. Tax Act also imposes a minimum tax on foreign earnings, partially offsetting the benefit to our effective tax rate from the lowest statutory rate. For the full year 2018, we’re anticipating an effective tax rate of 28.1% excluding any potential tax benefit from our share-based compensation which is difficult to estimate because it is subject to changes in our stock price and the impact of any future stock option exercises. This would be a reduction of over 4% versus our normalized rate of approximately 32.4% in 2017 which excludes the incremental tax charge that was incurred in Q4 of 2017 in connection with the Tax Act and also excludes the impact of the tax benefits realized in 2017 related to share-based compensation. Q1 rate is lower than our anticipated rate of 28.1% by approximately $13 million primarily as a result of the successful resolution of foreign tax claims in the quarter. Earnings from our affiliates totaled $800,000 for the quarter, up versus $100,000 last year and the allocation of earnings to the minority shareholders in our less than fully owned subsidiaries was flat with last year at $20.6 million. As a result, net income for the first quarter increased 9.2% to $264 million. Now turning to Slide 2. Income available for common shareholders for the quarter was 264 million and our diluted share count for the quarter decreased 2.1% versus Q1 of last year to 231.5 million. As a result, our diluted EPS for the first quarter was $1.14, up $0.12 a share or 11.8%. Turning back to Slide 3 which details our revenue performance, let me start the discussion by reviewing the impact of ASC 606, the new revenue recognition standard. In summary, after a detailed review the impact of standard would have on our businesses including detailed reviews of our client compensation agreements, we determined that as we expected the new standard does not have a material impact on our revenue or operating results. Consistent with the disclosure in our 2017 annual report, the new standard does not materially impact method or the timing of when we will recognize revenue under majority of our client arrangements, including our fixed fee retainer based or commission based client arrangements. New standard impacted the timing of the recognition of certain performance incentive provisions that are included in our client agreements. The achievement of certain qualitative or quantitative objectives can result in incremental compensation or revenue for the services we deliver. Previously, performance incentives were recognized as revenue when our performance against qualitative goals was acknowledged by the client or when specific quantitative goals were achieved. This often occurred on a lag resulting in recognition of these incentives late in the year or early in the subsequent year. The new standard requires these items to be estimated and included in the total consideration in the year the services are performed and to be evaluated throughout the contract period. Additionally, a new standard resulted in a reduction of revenue and operating expense in Q1 of '18 of approximately $30 million in one of our CRM consumer experience agencies. Because the impact of 606 was not material to our results, we adopted a new standard by the modified retrospective method of adoption. Under this method, 2017 results were not restated. Accordingly, for comparability purposes, on Slide 17 we present revenue for Q1 2018 as if we followed the previous standard, ASC 605, and we applied our previous revenue recognition policy. As I mentioned, we estimate the impact of applying the new revenue recognition standard, reduced our reported revenue in the first quarter of 2018 by approximately 42.5 million or 1.2% and the impact on EBIT and our results from operations as well as the balance sheet and cash flow were not material. This reduction in revenue is roughly in line with the anticipated impact we expect to see for the remainder of the quarters in 2018 or a reduction in revenue of approximately 150 million for the full year. And as previously discussed, had we followed the same revenue recognition rules as last year, our EBIT in Q1 2018 would have been approximately $6.5 million higher. However, because the impact on EBIT is principally timing related, we expect the net impact for the year to be minor. As we go forward, the impact on our quarterly reported numbers will ultimately be based on the specific mix of business in that particular quarter. Turning to FX. During the first quarter, the U.S. dollar continued to weaken year-over-year against almost all of the foreign currencies we operate in. As a result, the impact of changes in currency rates increased reported revenue by 4.2% or $151 million in revenue for the quarter. A major driver of our FX movement continues to be the euro which accounted for nearly half of the increase in revenue due to changes in FX during the quarter. Additionally, the dollar weakened against the UK pound, the Australian dollar, the Chinese renminbi and the Canadian dollar. Also in the first quarter, the dollar strengthened against the Brazilian real only slightly offsetting the increase in revenue due to FX. Obviously making an assumption on how foreign currency rates will move over the next few months let alone the balance of 2018 is speculative. But looking forward if currencies stay where they currently are, FX could have a positive impact on our revenues of approximately 3% during the second quarter and approximately 2.5% for the full year. The impact of our recent acquisitions net of dispositions decreased revenue by $153 million in the quarter or 4.2%. Dispositions continued to exceed revenue from acquisitions in the quarter as we come close to cycling through the disposal of Novus, our print media business which we sold early in the second quarter of 2017. So while there will be a modest effect in the second quarter, Q1 represents the last quarter that our revenue will be significantly impacted by that divestiture. Based on transactions we’ve completed to date and since we will cycle through the Novus disposition early in Q2, our current expectations are that the impact of our acquisition activity net of dispositions will reduce revenue by about 1% in the second quarter of 2018 and then range between flat and positive 1% for the remainder of 2018. As we’ve done in the past, we will continue to pursue strategic acquisitions that enhance our service offerings and make internal investments in our agencies that are consistent with our strategic plan. And we will also continue to evaluate our current portfolio of businesses in the context of our strategic priority. And finally, organic growth was positive on a global basis for the quarter, up $87 million or 2.4% for the first quarter. Each of our five disciplines were up organically for the quarter in total. The performance within disciplines remains mixed by agency. Geographically, our European and Asian regions led the way. UK returned to positive organic growth and the U.S. was marginally positive. However, weakness in Canada resulted in North America being slightly negative for the quarter. Slide 4 shows our mix of business by discipline. For the first quarter, the split was 52% for advertising and 48% for marketing and services. As for their organic growth by discipline, our advertising discipline was up 1.6%. Advertising organic growth continued to be led by our media businesses with the strong performance by Hearts & Science and PHD offsetting challenges still faced by OMD, while our global and national advertising agencies saw mixed results this quarter. CRM consumer experience was up 6.9% for the quarter, primarily on the strength of our events business domestically and in Asia. A portion of the increased activity in events can be attributed to the Winter Olympics in February. Results for the rest of the discipline was mixed. Shopper marketing was up while direct digital marketing and branding were marginally negative. CRM execution and support was up 1.2% in the quarter. Our field marketing, not-for-profit and merchandizing and point of sale businesses were all positive for the quarter, which were offset by declines in research and specialty production. PR was up seven-tenths of a point. Performance in the discipline was mixed by geographic region. The UK led the way while North America and Continental Europe were both essentially flat with Asia and Latin America both slightly down in the quarter. And healthcare was up 2.7%, a nice recovery after a negative performance in the fourth quarter. Performance was balanced with positive growth across all regions. As a reminder, in Q4 2017, we revised the detail we provided regarding our marketing services agencies to reflect the realignment of our disciplines to better capture the expanded scope of our services. As a result of this realignment, our CRM discipline has been disaggregated into two separate categories. CRM consumer experience which includes direct and digital marketing agencies and Omnicom precision marketing group as well as our consulting and branding agencies, shopper marketing agencies and our experiential marketing agencies and CRM execution and support which includes our field marketing, sales support, merchandizing and point of sale as well as other specialized marketing and custom communication agencies. We also realigned and renamed our specialty communications discipline so that it now exclusively includes agencies offering healthcare marketing and communication services. On Slide 24, we have provided the 2017 quarterly historical data that reflects the realignment of the discipline. On Slide 5 which details the regional mix of business, you can see during the quarter the split was 55% for North America, 10% for the UK, 20% for the rest of Europe, 11% for Asia Pacific, 3% for Latin America and the remainder in Middle East and Africa markets. Turning to the details of our performance by region, organic revenue growth in North America was down marginally at one-tenth of a percent. Marginally positive performance from our U.S. business was offset by a decrease in Canada. While in the region, we saw positive performance from our events businesses as well as PR and healthcare agencies. The advertising and media agencies in the region continued their softness. The UK was up 3% after a down fourth quarter. Results of this quarter were solid across most of our disciplines with advertising, media, healthcare and PR more than offsetting decreases in our field marketing and research businesses. The rest of Europe was up 9.7% organically in the quarter. Within the Eurozone we had growth in all of our disciplines. By country, Spain once again led the way but we also saw strong performance in the Netherlands and France. Additionally, Belgium and Italy performed well while Germany lagged behind. Growth in Europe outside the Eurozone continued to be positive as well. The Asia Pacific region was up 7.3% and we continue to see organic growth across our major markets in the region, including Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore as well as Greater China. Latin America had organic growth of 3% in the first quarter. Brazil was negative but at a lower level than we saw in the past few quarters. While there are some preliminary positive signs regarding the local economy, the ongoing political climate in Brazil makes it difficult to be confident that they are entering a sustained period of stability. Elsewhere in the region, Colombia had a strong quarter while our agencies in Mexico continued to perform well. In the Middle East and Africa, which is our smallest region, was down due to decreased media activity by our clients in the region and nonrecurring projects, primarily in the UAE. Turning to Slide 6. We present our mix of business by industry sector. Comparing the first quarter revenue for 2018 to 2017, the mix is fairly steady. Now turning to our cash flow performance. On Slide 7, you can see that in the first quarter we generated $375 million of free cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, which represents an increase of about $20 million over the first three months of 2017. As for our primary uses of cash on Slide 8, dividends paid to our common shareholders were $139 million, reflective of the 5% per share increase in the quarterly dividend that was approved last October which was partially offset by the reduction in our outstanding common shares due to repurchase activity over the past year. Dividends paid to our non-controlling interest shareholders totaled $16 million while capital expenditures were 36 million. Acquisitions, including earn-out payments, totaled just under $200 million and stock repurchases net of the proceeds received from stock issuances under our employee share plans totaled 229 million and was similar to what we repurchased during the first three months of the last year. All-in, we have spent our free cash flow by about 245 million in the first quarter. Turning to Slide 9. Regarding our capital structure at the end of the quarter, our total debt is $4.9 billion. Our net debt position at the end of the quarter was $2.3 billion, up nearly 1.2 billion compared to year-end December 31, 2017. The increase in net debt was a result of the typical uses of working capital that historically occur on our first quarter and the use of cash in excess of our free cash flow of approximately $245 million. These increases in net debt were partially offset by the effect of exchange rates on cash during Q1 but increased our cash balance by about $30 million. Compared to this time last year, our net debt is down $133 million. The decrease is primarily the result of generating approximately $80 million in net free cash flow over the past 12 months and the effect of exchange rates on cash that increased our cash balance by about 190 million. These reductions are partially offset by the changes in operating capital which negatively impacted our cash by approximately 100 million over the past 12 months. Our working capital was also negatively impacted this quarter as a result of the acceleration of the payment of certain bonuses in the U.S. to take advantage of the change in tax rates. Comparable bonus payments were made in Q2 of last year, so this was a timing item between Q1 and Q2. The net effect of these items was a reduction in working capital of approximately 275 million compared to Q1 of 2017. As for our debt ratios, they remain solid. Our total debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.1x and our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 1x. And due to the year-over-year increase in our interest expense, our interest coverage ratio decreased to 10.4x but remains quite strong. Turning to Slide 10. We continue to manage and build the company through a combination of well focused internal development initiatives and prudently price acquisitions. For the last 12 months, our return on invested capital ratio 21.3% while our return on equities 46.7%. Both are down year-over-year due to the additional tax charge we took in Q4 in connection with the passage of the Tax Act. That impact should be more than offset by the positive impact the lower tax rate will have on our results going forward. And finally on Slide 11, we track our cumulative return of cash to shareholders over the past 10 plus years. The line on the top of the chart shows our cumulative net income from 2018 to March 31st of 2018 which totaled 10.3 billion. And the bar show the cumulative return of cash to shareholders including both dividend and net share repurchases, the sum of which during the same period 10.9 billion resulting in a cumulative payout ratio 106% over the last decade. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we’ve included a number of other supplemental slides in the presentation materials for your review. But at this point, we’re going to ask the operator to open the call for questions. Thank you.