Phil Angelastro
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thank you, John and good morning. As John said, our business has once again met the financial and strategic objectives we set for them. They also performed well in meeting the objectives of their clients, as well as winning new business. For the third quarter, organic growth was 3.2%, and for the year-to-date period, it was 3.4%. FX continues to represent a headwind to our revenue, driven in large part by the weakening of the British proud year-over-year. For the third quarter, the FX impact reduced revenue 1.3% or about $50 million. Including the positive impact of 0.4% from our net acquisition activity, total revenue for the quarter was just under $3.8 billion, an increase of 2.3% versus Q3 of last year. I'll review our revenue growth in detail in a few minutes. Moving down the income statement to the items below revenue, our Q3 EBITDA increased 6.0% to $482 million. And the resulting EBITDA margin of 12.7% represents a 40 basis point increase over Q3 of last year. The increase, which exceeded by a bit our targeted 30 basis point improvement for the full year of 2016, is mainly the result of our ongoing initiatives to leverage scale and enhance efficiency on a companywide basis, as well as a change in business mix for the quarter. Operating income, or EBIT, for the quarter increased 5.8% to $453 million, with operating margin improving to 12.0%, in line with the EBITA margin improvement. Now, turning to the items below operating income. Net interest expense for the quarter was $42 million, down $2.8 million versus the second quarter of 2016 and up $6.1 million versus Q3 of 2015. Gross interest expense was down slightly compared to Q2 2016. As you know, when our $1 billion in 2016 senior notes reached maturity back in April, we issued $1.4 billion of 10-year senior notes due in 2026. We also entered into a fixed-to-floating interest rate swap on $500 million of the 2026 notes. Although we incrementally added $400 million in debt, the net effect of the reduction in rates on the new notes, combined with the rate swaps, reduced our gross interest expense. Third quarter had the benefit of this reduction for the full quarter, compared to only a partial benefit in Q2, resulting in a reduction compared to Q2 of approximately $1.5 million in interest expense. As compared to Q3 of last year, the increase in gross interest expense of $7.3 million, primarily resulted from the termination of the fixed-to-floating rate swaps on our 2022 notes. Interest income earned in Q3 of 2016 was a bit higher when compared to both Q2 of 2016 and Q3 of 2015, resulting from higher interest earned on the cash held by our international treasury centers. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter was 32.7%, which is in line with our current expectations for our annual rate. Earnings from our affiliates totaled $1.4 million for the quarter, down a little versus Q3 last year. The allocation of earnings to the minority shareholders in our less than fully owned subsidiaries decreased $3 million to $24.4 million. The decrease is the result of purchase in minority interest in certain subsidiaries over the past year, operational changes in a few agencies, and the negative affect of FX because a large portion of our less-than-fully-owned subsidiaries are located outside the U.S. As a result, net income was $253.8 million. That's an increase of $14.5 million or 6.1% versus Q3 of last year. Turning to slide three, the remaining net income available for common shareholders for the quarter after allocation of $1.2 million of net income to participating securities was $252.6 million, up $15.8 million or 6.7% when compared to last year's Q3. You can also see that our diluted share count for the quarter was $238.7 million, which is down 2.3% versus last year as a result of repurchases of shares over the past year. As a result, diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.06, up $0.09 or 9.3% versus Q3 2015. On slides four through six, we provide the summary P&L, EPS and other information on the year-to-date period. Since the year-to-date results are essentially in line with the results for the quarter, I will just give you a few highlights. While organic revenue growth was 3.4% during the first nine months of the year, the FX headwind reduced revenue by 1.9%. Factoring in the increase from acquisitions net of dispositions of 0.3%, our revenue increased on year-to-date basis by 1.8% to just under $11.2 billion. EBITA increased 4.7% to just under $1.5 billion. And consistent with our third quarter performance, both our EBITA and operating margins increased 40 basis points on a year-to-date basis compared to last year. And on slide six, you can see our six-month diluted EPS was $3.31 per share, which is up $0.25 or 8.2% versus 2015. Turning to slide seven, we shift the discussion to our revenue performance. Regarding FX, while the volatility in the foreign currency markets has declined over the past year, the continuing slide of the British pound after the Brexit vote in late June remains a notable exception. In isolation, the FX impact of the pound decline reduced our revenue by about $60 million in the third quarter. As for other notable currency moves on a reported basis, compared to Q3 of 2015, the dollar strengthened in the quarter against the Chinese yuan and the Mexican peso. And conversely, the dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, the Aussie dollar and the Brazilian real. As a result, the net impact of FX decreased our quarterly revenue by $50 million or about 1.3%. Looking ahead, if rates stay where they currently are, the negative impact of FX is expected to reduce revenue by about 1% during the fourth quarter of 2016, which would bring the full year estimated reduction to around 1.75%. Revenue from acquisitions net of dispositions increased revenue $15.3 million in the quarter or 0.4%. We expect the impact of acquisitions net of dispositions will remain roughly the same in Q4. And finally, organic growth was positive $119 million or 3.2% this quarter. For the quarter, we had positive organic growth across all of our major markets, with the exception of Germany and Singapore, as well as France and the Netherlands. The primary drivers of our growth this quarter included the continued strong performance across our media businesses, as well as certain of our advertising agencies, in the face of difficult comparisons to the growth in the same quarter in 2015. As well as our full-service healthcare businesses, which had a strong quarter with particular strength internationally. And our public relations businesses perform well across most markets, with particular strength in the U.S. On slide eight, highlighting our regional mix of business, you can see during the quarter, split was 59% for North America, 9% for the U.K., 16% for the rest of Europe, 11% for Asia-Pacific, 3% for Latin America, and a little less than 2% for Africa and the Middle East. Turning to the details of our performance by region on slide nine, in the face of difficult comparison to Q3 of last year, when organic revenue growth exceeded 6%, organic revenue growth in North America was 1.7%. In the quarter, we saw strong performances from our media and PR businesses. In Europe, the U.K. had organic growth of 5.2%, with good performances across the portfolio, especially in our media, specialty healthcare and PR businesses. The rest of Europe was up 2%. Our agencies in Italy and Spain performed well, while Germany was negative organically for the first time in several years, and the Netherlands and France continued to struggle. Growth in Europe outside the Eurozone was strong and especially notable in the Czech Republic, Russia and Sweden. The Asia-Pacific region was up 8%. Once again, most major markets in the region performed well in the quarter, including Japan and Australia, as well as Greater China, which continues to grow albeit at a slower rate than in prior years. We also saw solid organic growth from the emerging market countries in the region, including India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In Latin America, the region had an excellent quarter, with organic revenue growth of 11.9%, with Mexico leading the way. Brazil was positive in the quarter, helped some by Olympic activity. While the revenue performance in Brazil has improved each quarter this year, the questions regarding the political and economic climate remain too unsettled to confidently predict when we will see the market return to consistent growth going forward. And Africa and the Middle East, our smallest region, was up double-digits organically for the quarter, driven by the strength of our agencies in South Africa and the UAE. Slide 10 shows our mix of business by discipline. For the quarter, the split was 52% for advertising services and 48% for marketing services. As for their performance, our advertising discipline was up 3.6% compared to Q3 of 2015, which was a challenging comparison given the strong performance last year. The growth was led by the performance of our media businesses, which performed well across almost all of their offerings and in all markets, as well as good performance at certain of our advertising agencies. While CRM returned to positive organic growth, up 1.6% for the quarter, the results remain mixed across businesses and geographies. While our shopper, marketing and direct and interactive businesses had a nice quarter, our field marketing and point-of-sale businesses and our event businesses continued to struggle, as did our branding businesses. PR was up 4.4% this quarter, although this is compared to a relatively easy comp in the prior year. And specialty communications was up 6.2% organically. The solid performance was driven by Omnicom Healthcare Group, with notable performances by its agencies outside the U.S. Although we remain on track to meet the internal target we set for organic growth for the full year of 3% to 3.5%, as John said earlier, as we go through our planning process for Q4, there were several factors that result in less visibility that could have an impact on our current expectations for revenue growth for the fourth quarter. On slide 11, we present our mix of business by industry sector. In comparing the year-to-date revenue for 2016 to 2015, you can see there were some minor shifts in the distribution of our client revenue between industries, with healthcare and travel and entertainment up slightly as a percentage of revenue, and retail and tech down, but nothing particularly significant. Turning to our cash flow performance on slide 12, you can see that we generated just over $1.1 billion of free cash flow during the first nine months of the year, excluding changes in working capital. As for our primary uses of cash on slide 13, dividends paid to our common shareholders were $374 million. The 10% increase in our quarterly dividend was effective with the payments we made during Q3 of 2016. Only one of the three payments so far this year was at the higher amount. And the cash flow impact of that higher payment was partially offset by a lower share count due to repurchase activity. Dividends paid to our non-controlling interest shareholders totaled $71 million. This is down versus last year due to the purchase of additional shares from our local partners. Capital expenditures were $101 million, a reduction compared to 2015, resulting from lower spending on leasehold improvements and an increase in our equipment leasing program. Acquisitions, including earn-out payments, totaled $438 million. And stock repurchases net of the proceeds received from stock issuances under our employee share plan totaled $423 million. All in, we out-spent our free cash flow by just over $300 million in the first nine months of the year. Turning to slide 14 regarding our capital structure at the end of the quarter, our total debt at September 30th, 2016 of just over $5 billion is up about $435 million from this time last year. This increase reflects the incremental $400 million in our borrowings related to the debt issuance back in April. Along with an increase in the non-cash fair value of our debt to about $20 million, directly related to and offset by positive fair value of the respective interest rate swaps on our debt, and as required to be reported on the balance sheet under U.S. GAAP. Our net debt position at the end of the quarter, $3.06 billion, down $105 million compared to September 30th, 2015. The positive change in operating capital of approximately $440 million was partially offset by the overspend of our free cash flow by about $295 million for the 12 months ended September 30th, 2016, as well as the noncash U.S. GAAP adjustments for the carrying value of our debt. Net debt increased by $1.1 billion compared to year end as a result of the use of cash in excess of our free cash flow of approximately $300 million, the uses of working capital that typically occur through the first nine months of the year, which approximated $785 million. As for our debt ratios, they remain strong. Our total debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.2 times, and our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.3 times. And due to the year-over-year increase in our interest expense, our interest coverage ratio decreased to 11.1 times, but it remains quite solid. Turning to slide 15, we continue to manage and build the company through a combination of well-focused internal development initiatives and prudently priced acquisitions. For the last 12 months, our return on investment capital ratio improved 19.4%, while our return on equity increased to 47.1%. And finally, on slide 16, we track our cumulative return of cash to shareholders over the past 10-plus years. The line on the top of the chart shows our cumulative net income from 2006 through the third quarter of 2016, which totaled $10.4 billion. And the bars show the cumulative return of cash to shareholders, including both dividends and net share repurchases, the sum of which during the same period totaled $11.4 billion, resulting in a cumulative payout ratio of 110% over the period. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we've included a number of other supplemental slides in the presentation materials for your review. But at this point, we're going to ask the operator to open the call for questions. Thank you.