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Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 21, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Omnicom Group Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we’ll conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder this conference call is being recorded. At this time I’d like to now introduce you to the host for today’s conference call Shub Mukherjee. Please go ahead.

Shub Mukherjee

Management

Good morning. Thank you for taking the time to listen to our third quarter 2014 earnings call. On the call with me today is John Wren, President and Chief Executive Officer and Phil Angelastro, Chief Financial Officer. We hope everyone has had a chance to review our earnings release we posted on the Omnicomgroup.com website, both our press release and the presentation covering the information that we will be reviewing this morning. This call is also being simulcast and will be archived on our website. Before we start, I have been asked to remind everyone to read the forward-looking statements and other information that we have included at the end of our Investor Presentation, and to point out that certain of the statements made today may constitute forward-looking statements and that these statements are our present expectations and that actual events or results, may differ materially. I would also like to remind you that during the course of the call, we will discuss some non-GAAP measures in talking about Omnicom’s performance. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures in the presentation material. We’re going to begin this morning’s call with an overview of our business from John Wren. Then Phil Angelastro will reveal our financial performance. And then John and Phil will be happy to take questions.

John Wren

President

Thank you Sue, good morning. Before I get started, I want you to welcome Phil to the call, as Omnicom’s new Chief Financial Officer. In the last week’s, many of you have had a chance to speak or even meet with Phil. He’s been a key member of our executive management team for over 15 years, and has worked closely with Randy and me on our quarterly calls and our key financial and operational strategies. At Omnicom, we place a considerable emphasis on succession management planning. For several years Phil had been designated as Randy’s successor as CFO. Our board of directors, our senior managing team, and I, are confident this will be a seamless transition for Phil, and I’m pleased to have him by my side. Before getting to the quarter, let me emphasize that Omnicom’s operational and financial strategies remain unchanged. Turning to the quarter, we delivered good results with organic growth up 6.5% over the same quarter last year. Our growth was driven by new business wins in late 2013 and earlier this year, as well as strong performance in some of our core strategic growth areas, which I’ll touch upon in a few minutes. Year-to-date, our organic growth rate is 5.6%, so we are on track to exceed our target for the full year. On the margin front, we had a slight decrease year-over-year of one-tenth of 1%. In absolute dollars, that difference to flat margins was insignificant, less than $4 million, and the result of several factors. Phil will provide more color on the margins, in his remarks. At this point, we remain committed to maintaining flat margins year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Even in the face of ongoing challenges in the macroeconomic environment, and increased volatility in currencies. Turning to our cash flow, we…

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you John and good morning. As John said, I’ve worked closely with him and Randy and the rest of Omnicom senior management team for a long time. And although this is my first earnings call as CFO, I’ve been a part of more than 60 of these calls in my prior role as Controller. I want to start by thanking Randy for all of his guidance and support over the years. I will certainly benefit from it in my new role, and it had helped to prepare me for the transition. I’ve met many of our stakeholders over the last month. And I look forward to meeting more of you over the next several weeks and months. And now we’ll focus on our results for the quarter. As John said, we are very pleased with the performance of our operating companies. They have continued to deliver against their operating and strategic objectives, while maintaining their focus on meeting the needs of their clients. Their continued excellent performance has also helped make this an easier transition for me. As a result of the excellent performance of our agencies, revenue for the quarter came in at $3.75 billion up 7.4%. Year-over-year increase was driven by continued strong organic growth of 6.5%, with small contributions to our growth in the quarter, also coming from net acquisitions and FX net. We’ll review our revenue growth in further detail in a few minutes. A quick note before we review our operating income and the rest of our results. As a reminder we terminated our proposed merger with Publicis in the second quarter of this year. In the third quarter of ‘13 we incurred $28.1 million of cost related to the transaction. These costs are included in our reported GAAP results for 2013. In reviewing…

Operator

Operator

(Operators Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Alexia Quadrani with JP Morgan, please go ahead. Alexia Quadrani – JP Morgan: Thank you, thanks very much. Can you let us know how much momentum I think you’re in your programmatic buying business, I mean once you start circling the comps I guess, do you think there’s still going to be great growth in that business, are we just sort of, any sort of color in terms of giving us where we are in this cycle. And also on the margin front, do you think it has a negative impact on overall profitability or less than 2% of revenue’s really not making an impact at this point?

John Wren

President

Good morning Alexia, I think its early days, with respect to programmatic; we’re just developing the skills and refining them. And the technologies come up really on board in the last 12 – 13 months, which enables us to better target our audiences. If what projections we read, and we’re told by our own media people are true, more and more media will be purchased in this fashion as we get into 2015 and into the future. We don’t have, at this point, because it’s so new, because these shifts are happening at such a rapid pace, we don’t have an accurate forecast to give you over the phone, as to how fast this business, which is currently 2% of our businesses is going to grow in the fourth quarter and throughout next year. But we’re very comfortable that it’s going to be at least double-digits. And with respect to margins, I don’t believe you attribute the margin decline of a tenth of a percent, to any one particular item. Phil mentioned a few, and we continue to invest in the very bright people that become available on the marketplace, when they become available on the marketplace. Because we know that they’ll pay huge dividends to our growth in the future.

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

One thing to add Alexia, we certainly did see an increase in programmatic demand beginning in the fourth quarter of last year, late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. So we’re certainly aware of them this year, but optimistic about the growth in the future. Alexia Quadrani – JP Morgan: Again John, just one follow up, you’ve got such a great perspective on sort of the overall advertising market. I guess if you could give us your opinion or some color of how advertisers are seeing overall budgets and spending levels, it sounds from everything you’ve said here, and your great results that clearly – spending seems very healthy. But there’s a bit of nervousness among the investor community, towards the perception on advertisers are kind of abandoning TV and moving to digital. I guess in your opinion, do you think there’s a big, much more notable change this year on that front, or is it more a continuation of a trend we’ve been seeing for a while?

John Wren

President

I don’t well, First of all, marketing budgets continue to grow, clients though, especially when it comes to TV, there has been, I’d say, a shift there’s like – when you look at traditional areas, like the upfront and the scatter markets, and you went back a couple of years, there was an urgency on the part of appliance to make certain that they didn’t miss out on the programming that they wanted. With all the various choices of how to reach the audiences you need to reach today, and our ability to do it, there wasn’t that urgency going into the first – to the upfront this year. And with respect to the scatter markets, I think you’re seeing money being diverted into other areas. I believe that trend will continue, I don’t think TV’s dead, I just think that there’s going to be a shift. And oddly enough, when you look at it, or when I look at it, as an investor, some of the people from – a great number of the people that own the content that we’re going to want to be able to use to put online, is part owned by, what you would refer to as the traditional media owners. So they may not get the money out of TV, they may get it out of some other source, but I just see the complexity changing some of the rules that were easy to live by in the past. Alexia Quadrani – JP Morgan: Alright, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And next we’ll go to the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners, please go ahead. Craig Huber – Huber Research Partners: Yes, good morning, and John if you could just give us your current thoughts I know it’s early here but as you think after 2015 where your, general senses from your clients, what their marketing budgets may look like next year, I have a follow up question too, thank you?

John Wren

President

Okay, it’s a bit early for me to be giving you forecasts at the moment Craig, our companies, our agencies are in the process of doing that right now. And we’ll be reviewing it with them from; I think it’s probably next Monday, all the way probably through December. My sense is that the United States remains healthy, it’s a good market to be in and I don’t see too much in the way, that’s going to get in the way of slowing down the pace of growth in the States. Once you get outside the United States, there’s a lot of trouble in the world, we don’t have much hope for real economic growth in the Euro for next year. Again, we haven’t seen it reflected in our budgets, but because we haven’t done that budgeting yet, but the Euro is a concern, certainly after – although it’s small offers, it remains a concern. Brazil’s had some difficulties, which I think will continue and may impact just a little bit. So we’re pretty balanced and conservative in anticipation of getting the information, but I don’t know how helpful that is. I feel cautiously optimistic; I guess you’d say, it’s certainly still early for us, but the process at our operations and our agencies has begun. In addition of spending some more time with the agencies on Q4 in the next few weeks, we’ll be spending more time on the ‘15 as we go. One other thing that bodes well for us, and the year’s not over, is we’ve had fewer losses this year, just cycle against next year. So putting currency aside, there’s less headwind as we see the –, but we’re certainly confident that we’re well positioned both in terms of the disciplines we’ve been investing in, in the overall balance in the company. Craig Huber – Huber Research Partners: And also John, in North America, again revenue growth up 8.9%, it’s obviously quite an acceleration from the first half of this year, the prior three years frankly. What has changed in your mind, in your business, why was up so strong here in North America?

John Wren

President

As I said, problematic came on board for us, we really – even though we’ve been investing in it, it came on in earnest in the fourth quarter of last year, so there was a contribution from that that. Again at the end of last year, we had fewer losses than in the same period the prior years is cycled through and we’re up against. And we’ve had a pretty good run this year from a new business point of view, and securing client budgets. So I think it’s a cumulative of all that and probably one or two things I’m forgetting to mention, that has contributed to our growth. Craig Huber – Huber Research Partners: And then finally Phil, if I could just ask you for – the UK, you guys mentioned it was relatively strong I guess, in the quarters. I mean organic revenue in the UK was up say 7% to 9% versus a year ago?

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

I don’t have the number in front of me at the moment, but it was certainly – give me a second here and we’ll check it, I think that’s probably a good range. Maybe it’s a little on the high side, it’s probably more in the 5 or 6 range this quarter. Craig Huber – Huber Research Partners: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of David Bank with RBC Capital, please go ahead. David Bank – RBC Capital Markets: Hey, thank you very much guys. So I want to follow up on the first question a little bit, that Alexia asked, which is, I know we’re dealing with lot small numbers today. But at what point does that revenue contribution from programmatic need to be before you indicate that it’s moving the toggle and profitability. So the quarter, would you say 10% of our revenue is now coming from programmatic and that’s moving the toggles. Is there some movement like that? And then the second question is, when you look at the data, programmatic business mix. If you look at that kind of 200 basis point’s contribution, how much of that is coming from owned media and the sense that you’re profiting from your owned media, thanks very much?

John Wren

President

I’d be happy for it to be 10% of a growing business, I’m certain I don’t have those projections in front of me, my media people aren’t signing up for those kinds of numbers yet. I would imagine it will take that level of contribution before it starts to impact the rest of Omnicom, because the rest of Omnicom is so large. Don’t know if I’m answering your question exactly, but if not – David Bank – RBC Capital Markets: So quite a ways away before it’s a toggle on margin?

John Wren

President

Yes I think so, in any meaningful fashion, because the company is so large. We run a business on the – David Bank – RBC Capital Markets: I was just – on the owned media contribution?

John Wren

President

Yeah, I mean if you’re comparing us to say, what Xaxis claims it does, we haven’t gone out yet and looked for non-Omnicom clients, nor gone out and purchased inventory in any meaningful fashion. We’re studying what they’re doing, and when I also listen to them, and I listen as carefully as I can, they claim to have a significant business in Xaxis in Europe, much more significant than ours. I view that as a huge opportunity that we have to sort through and because there’s no reason to believe that we can’t be impact full there as well. Yeah I think we –, it’s early days, so we’ve certainly been exploring a number of different approaches, but we’re only occasional – we’ve only occasionally, opportunistically moved forward on – David Bank – RBC Capital Markets: I’d just like to –. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go to the line of William Bird with FBR. Please go ahead. William Bird – FBR: Thank you. Thanks for the additional detail on margins, Phil, when you referred to the negative impact of mix, what areas specifically are you referring to? And then on programmatic, are the margins for that business any lower than your other businesses?

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

Can you repeat the second part Bill? William Bird – FBR: Sure, how does the margin profile look like for programmatic, is it at the average or is it below?

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

I think we’ve got a limited history with Accuen at this point, it’s relatively new, it’s obviously rapidly growing. We’ve been making some significant investments over the last few years here. We expect it’s going to achieve margin levels over time, similar to the rest of our media business, so we’re taking a longer term view on the business itself. And we’re very excited about the opportunity, but we’re trying to find the right balance for our overall business and for that business in particular. We do have some fulfillment businesses that we’ve talked about in the past, certainly in those businesses that they don’t require a lot of capital, they give great returns. And our primary focus is on EBIT dollars as opposed to the absolute margin percentage. So that’s certainly at any one quarter can have an impact on our mix. William Bird – FBR: And just separately on programmatic, is there any difference in the way you account for it and recognize revenues versus your other media buying businesses?

John Wren

President

Well I think we follow GAAP and we’ve always tried to be clear and consistent and straight forward about it, but the vast majority of our media businesses, we act as an agent. So there is a difference in the model versus the Accuen model. And the Accuen model we agree to some specific advertiser performance objective’s up front, we agreed the price. And the price includes the whole package and the cost and execution risk is Accuen, so it’s not an agency model, so there is a difference there. William Bird – FBR: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Tim Nollen with Macquarie. Please go ahead. Tim Nollen – Macquarie: Hi. Thanks, a couple things please if I could just try to characterize your comments on life outside the U.S., is it fair to say that you haven’t necessarily seen any risk or pullback to spending, but you’re certainly vary of issues, not just political issues or health issues in some regions, but just the growth in the Euro zone and in some emerging markets, is that a fair characterization? And secondly I wanted to ask you about your IT and software partnerships, you mentioned Salesforce and you’ve got a couple others. Is there anything you can say in terms of what the scope of work is with these arrangements, help explain what they are, what type of revenue sharing agreements you might have, what the potential for growth from these might be? Thanks.

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

With respect to your first question, Europe, I think by all accounts, has just introduced their own version of QE. And so we’re not expecting much growth to come out of big countries in Europe as to distinguish it from the rest of the world. In other parts of the world, leaving aside wars and illness, I think what we’ve seen is, they’re still growing and god knows we still have plenty of room to gain market share. But they’re not just; they’re not growing at the same pace of growth that we were experiencing in the past. Your second question, and pardon me for not having been fast enough to write it down, could you repeat it? Tim Nollen – Macquarie: Sure, it’s about the IT and software partnerships that you’ve had, you mentioned Salesforce.com and you’ve done some others. Just, if you could explain a bit more what those are, what is the scope of work, are these like revenue share agreements, what’s the growth profile of these? Just explain a bit more what those are please.

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

Sure, the partnerships, and there’s an over a 100 of them, are designed to do different things, and I’m sure that our technology partners won access to our systems. And therefore access to our client spending. From our perspective they offer technology that we are not a technology company but we are a user of technology and we look to partner with to the person at the time or in the period that can help us achieve our goals. Our goals are really to reach the right customer at the right time when they are in the right mood with the correct message. And all these various partnerships in one fashion or another are to refine our data and to back the information that we require in order to accomplish those things. And to your other question there aren’t any specific set of revenue sharing or payment streams these are partnerships which benefit both parties in terms of the task and the scope we’re asking each party to perform.

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

And just add to that a little bit on the sales front Essentially the partnerships with CRM data sharing initiative that’s going to help us and – create more personalized communications to connect the dots between these marketing sales and customers service information, we think that agreement’s going to be a particular use for our CRM agencies, so it’s really about the data sharing. And on Facebook front, as John said it’s a partnership that’s going to provide our clients ultimately who choose to use – all the benefits of people based marketing. And being able to target and measure based on people in both online and offline measurement world, so it’s really getting access to the technology and the platform but again it isn’t the deal that has commitments on our side. Tim Nollen – Macquarie: Okay thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today comes from the line of Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Ben Swinburne – Morgan Stanley: Thank you good morning and thanks for the color on programmatic which of course I want to ask more questions on. It is a big topic so can you help us think about from an Omnicom perspective, how incremental programmatic is to your business from your clients. I guess what I’m struggling speaking about is if a client spends x amount of dollars on media buying through Omnicom traditionally, either on TV or through direct digital platforms and then shift to buy it through your Accuen platform. Is that generating incremental revenue for you and of it is, is it primarily because the accounting is different, because you’re acting or as principle as you said before programmatic. And if it is the incremental where’s that money coming from, and obviously client I wouldn’t imagine that clients are spending more money in aggregate because of programmatic but maybe that’s incorrect?

John Wren

President

I would agree, I don’t see more new money coming in to the overall spend I see a shift our objective through all of this is to improve the ROI of the money spent by our clients. And them achieving their objective of reaching customers and, technology allows you to do that when – we have traditional customers that are trading on trading desk that are embedded in our agencies. And there were just in the marketplace bidding against whoever else is out there. We also have an opt-in model where we are in a sense taking the risk of achieving objectives that the client laid out in reaching those audiences. One is more of a known to the client, one is since you don’t know who you’re bidding against at any given time. We don’t quite know what the environment’s going to be, so the accounting is pretty straight forward the accounting is defined by a bunch of people who sit behind GAAP and depending on, I’ve learned years ago simply to accept what they say, not to argue with they say. So I’m not sure if I’ve answered your question but it is an increasing area, where we can be more effective to the client’s dollars. Ben Swinburne – Morgan Stanley: Okay I think that makes sense. In another words the clients want to pay Omnicom more as a percentage of its overall spending, because the buyer is more valuable from an ROI perspective I think that’s what you’re predicting?

John Wren

President

Right and we are agnostic player in the marketplace, and as we move forward in some of our predictions come true, there are going to be couple of players, there’s always going to be Google, there’s always going to be Facebook. In all likelihood there always be WPP and then us who have the scaling and the source and we are agnostic we’re not attempting to sale inventory that we only mass. We are simply going after audiences but we know our clients’ needs to reach. Ben Swinburne – Morgan Stanley: That was actually where I wanted to go to, it’s just in relationship with Facebook particularly on Atlas because it would seem overtime you’re competing for economics Atlas, from an Accuen perspective both trying to get a fee on mobile spending for advertisers and may be there’s an analogy with Google on double click that you could point as to how that works, well over time?

John Wren

President

Right now I consider both companies friends and not enemies there isn’t that much conflict between what we are trying to do and what they are trying to do. We are cognizant every day that could change at some point in the future but right now they are big clients of ours and we are big clients of theirs and we ventured into economically sound deals with both.

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

Certainly we see them as partners and keep in mind no single media vendors sees the whole landscape quite like we do. And as John had said we are neutral third party, so we see search social display video, across all devices and we try to link the customers across all of them which not everybody can do. Ben Swinburne – Morgan Stanley: Thanks for the color.

John Wren

President

Sure. I think we have time for just one last quick question.

Operator

Operator

Okay our final question today will come from line of John Janedis from Jefferies. John Janedis – Jefferies: Thank you. I’ll make this fast. First just going back fulfillment business Phil have seen any change to the margin profile over the past year or so. Has the growth been similar to the rest of Omnicom and then secondly you talked briefly about Russia, there seems to be maybe some change on the table there that’ll impact advertising. Are you seeing any kind of early signs and further slowing in, can you remind us about its revenue contribution I’m assuming low singles?

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, in terms of size it’s definitely low singles on the low end of the low singles for Russia, back to your margin point. I think the profile hasn’t really changed we approach each of our agencies, each of our core operations and work with them to try and find margin that’s right for them. And again we’re focused on the margin dollars not just a percentage that you can’t really feel and touch. And we think great businesses, great returns and we’re happy to have them. They’ve been performing well on the whole over a period of time that they kind of perform similar to Omnicom overall I think probably little slower rate than we’ve seen in Accuen and the media business lately but we’re happy with their performance. John Janedis – Jefferies: Thanks. Just a quickly on Russia, anything in terms it’s just the tender of the business I know you mentioned its slowing a little bit but any sense that slow is more so going forward or not yet?

Phil Angelastro

Chief Financial Officer

Not yet the business has actually been doing well not just for the external environment in Russia the business has been solid, we haven’t seen any signs yet of that other than a slight slowdown and some excellent performance but it’s still performing really well. No reason to think anything is imminent. John Janedis – Jefferies: Thank you.

John Wren

President

Okay. Well thank you everyone for joining the call. And we’ll talk to you again soon.