Scott Sutton
Analyst · Alembic Global. Please go ahead
Yeah. Thanks, Steve, and good morning to everybody. The Olin team did a great job delivering the highest quarterly EBITDA in our history, and delivering the fourth quarter in a row where EBITDA was $700 million, plus or minus, even though global economic conditions declined. We did what we said we would do. We ran our model of leadership and accelerated our reduction of Olin share count without adding debt to our investment grade balance sheet. Still many imagine us all the way down in the earnings and free cash flow gutter in the imminent recession. So I will solely focus my remarks on what Olin looks like in a recession, and then on why Olin is a good investment in any event. So let's go back and revisit the recession, EBITDA and free cash flow slide from our first quarter earnings call shown here as slide number 4. Starting on the left-hand side of the slide, from our $2.8 billion EBITDA 12-month run rate, it is certainly not impossible that the CAPV business experiences lower, longer-term operating rate reductions as we focus on maintaining the value of our products through a recession. The associated percent drop in CAPV EBITDA could be like what our Epoxy business is experiencing. The combination of the two business performance reductions result in a $1 billion EBITDA drop. The right-hand side of the slide seems to be more interesting to most Olin followers. Starting from the 2020 EBITDA result of $636 million, the three line items that we don't expect to repeat in a recession under the new model are low core-in [ph] pricing, selling cash-negative EDC and Winchester operating in a significantly smaller demand structure. All three line items seem to be well accepted. The fourth upside line item called other structural change needs some clarification though. Included in that upside line item, are the materialized fixed cost reductions for the closure of 865,000 ECU tons of chlor alkali production, an updated epichlorohydrin positioning, maintaining part of the improved epoxy pricing under our new model of value, an improved VCM contract arrangement in gains from multiple alliances. In this recession scenario, Olin still generates $7 per share or more of levered free cash flow. In fact, we welcome the opportunity to further reduce our share count right through the middle of a recession. Obviously, we're bullish on Olin. Slide number 5 shows why. We're the leader in every one of our businesses, and we run a model that looks around corners so we can position for the future today. So said differently, we take difficult actions early in the cycle. Part of that positioning is to temporarily reduce participation in markets with poor future quality indicators. Our curtailments in Epoxy and associated upstreams at Freeport and Brazil, as well as an EDC and Freeport continue today. Both Epoxy and EDC represent weakness on the chlorine side of the ECU. Accordingly, we match our market participation to the weak side of the ECU. This is a fundamental change to our positioning from prior periods. Additionally, we expect to curtail epoxy and associated upstreams again stated Germany late in the third quarter, in part due to the European energy situation. Our complete company strategy changed from heavy volume to nimble value along with the currently understated equity valuation positions us to buy up to 20% of our outstanding shares in a year even in a weak economic cycle. Our new $2 billion share repurchase program reflects our Board's confidence in Olin's future earnings and cash flow generation. With our solid balance sheet and strong cash flow, the company is well positioned to execute on this attractive opportunity to invest in Olin. So, that concludes my opening remarks. And Andrew, we're now ready to take questions.