Earnings Labs

Olin Corporation (OLN)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 2, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Olin Corporation's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Larry Kromidas, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Larry P. Kromidas - Director-Investor Relations & Assistant Treasurer: Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I want to remind everyone that this presentation, along with the associated slides and the following question-and-answer session, will include statements regarding estimates of future performance. Please note that these are forward-looking statements and that results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ are described, without limitations, in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in our second quarter earnings release. Also, please note that during today's call we will reference quarter-over-quarter comparisons as the prior-year results do not reflect the contribution of the acquired chlorine products businesses. Finally, a copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Calendar of Events. The earnings press release and other financial data and information are available under Press Releases. Now I'd like to turn the call over to John Fischer, Olin's President and Chief Executive Officer. John? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Larry, and good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. In addition to Larry, with me this morning are Pat Dawson, Executive Vice President and President of Epoxy and International; John McIntosh, Executive Vice President, Chemicals and Ammunition; Jim Varilek, Executive Vice President and President, Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; and Todd Slater, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will begin with a few highlights and then review our…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Morning, gentlemen. Hey, John, you mentioned that the $70 – I'm sorry, July $20 increase in caustic soda price in the index will be realized later in Q3 and into Q4. And you also gave some guidance in terms of the time lag, so I was glad to see that it wasn't a 180 days because I think on the last conference call you guys talked about one to two quarters, so it was a kind of on the lower side there. But can you give us some greater granularity in terms of the increases in Q2 and that are going to be realized in Q3? And how much of a bump we should be expecting in your caustic soda price realizations in Q3 and Q4 based on where the indices stood in Q2 and Q3? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Frank, last week – or on July 22, when we last spoke, we talked about domestic prices increasing 5% to 7% compared to second quarter levels, over the third quarter and fourth quarter. And that export prices, we believe, will increase between 20% and 25% from second quarter levels over the third and fourth quarters.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Is the $20 July increase embedded in that 5% to 7% number? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We had baked into that what our assessment was of the price – the success of the price increases that had been announced.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

All right. And then, you outlined that EDC is kind of on a low point relative to the past 15 years. Given that so much of it is Asia related and given that the Chinese construction markets have slowed down, the expectation for a recovery there is that predicated on a recovery in the Chinese construction market? What exactly are we looking for in terms of seeing that pick up to more normal historical levels? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I don't know that we necessarily said we were expecting a recovery there because we talked about that that would be one of the reasons – that was one of the two primary reasons we had to reduce our full year 2016 guidance. I think what we were looking for overall, is the strength of construction in Asia more broadly than China, so places like Thailand, India, et cetera.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

All right. So at this point, there is not reason for optimism for the balance of 2016 there, correct? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: What we've essentially said is we expect where we are today to continue from pricing perspective for the balance of 2016.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Terrific. And then lastly, in the release, I thought I read something about the guidance for Epoxy in 2016 is still intact with prior guidance. And just to confirm, we're talking about an EBITDA level for the year in the $130 million to $140 million range, is that correct? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a fair estimate. Yes.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Freuchtel of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Hey, good morning. John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Jason.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Of the $15 million impact to second quarter earnings from higher raw material prices, how much of the impact was driven by higher net gas pricing, compared to higher ethylene pricing? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: They were about evenly split.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. And then just to clarify, in the revised guidance, did you extrapolate that one-month surge in raw material prices that negatively impacted the results over the course of the 12 months adjusted for your utilization rates? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. We did.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. And can you expand on the investments you made to improve your EDC situation? What was the CapEx commitment and how quickly will that investment improve your EDC profitability? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'd prefer not to talk about the dollar value of the investment. I would say, we expect to see benefits beginning in the fourth quarter.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. And I guess lastly, can you discuss the working capital initiatives to accelerate collection or receivables? Will that benefit be complete in 2016 or will there be continued benefit in 2017? Todd A. Slater - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: Jason, this is Todd. We would expect that to occur all in 2016, and that'd be more of a one-time permit reduction, in essence we entered into a agreement with a major financial institution to sell our receivables, in essence, accelerating the collection.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks. I guess, first off, just on the export side, I guess, I can appreciate that you had a couple of customers down in the second quarter and that's what led to your own lower domestic demand within your own system and of course a little bit more export tonnage. I just wanted to understand the 2017 situation though, is it safe to assume that you would have more exports in 2017 than you would have in 2016? Maybe you can just tell us your expectations on overall export tonnage and does that lead to overall lower price realization on an average basis? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We would not expect any significant change in 2017 versus 2016 in the mix between domestic caustic soda sales and export sales. And I'd actually think, if you look at where the pricing has moved, there has been a more dramatic move up in the export pricing. So export will actually contribute to a – we hope a higher net back in 2017.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe help us remind us some of your assumptions embedded in the $1.5 billion mid-cycle EBITDA statements, if we were to remove the $250 million of synergies that leaves us at about $1.25 billion, is that the right way to look at it, and what's kind of the caustic soda price and the Epoxy EBITDA that's embedded in that EBITDA? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, if you – if we start with caustic soda, we talked about mid-cycle. And I think if you went back and looked at 2011 through 2014, you could pick a mid-cycle point, and I would suggest that was something like $100 higher than what we've seen in the first half of 2016. In the Epoxy, if you go back to the Investors Day presentation, we showed you where the business had been, and that we expected it to get back to that level over a period – multi-year period. And then the other element of it is EDC, and all we said was mid-cycle was the average that is on the chart that we put today, the 15-year average, which is something in a neighborhood of $0.13 or $0.14.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

And just to clarify, are there any impediments structurally, whether it'd be demand given that there are some lower markets i.e. that is alumina, or pulp and paper that would impede you from getting to those levels, or costs i.e. lower oil prices or anything like that, that would prevent you from getting back to those mid-cycle levels? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I think there's always potential for market factors that could do that. I mean I don't know what global demand, what the global economies are going to look like two years from now in terms of rates of growth or whether we might be in a less favorable growth scenario. But I think – and we talked about this, I think clearly, we believe on caustic, the dynamics we're setting up for that to happen. I would say, in the short run, we're a little less certain about EDC, which is why we've made some investments to get the cost down.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Herb Hardt of Monness. Please go ahead. Herbert A. Hardt - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc.: Good morning. My question in regards competition with the various price increases that you see on the index, do you see your main competitors going along with you and not having any problems in meeting that? James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: Yeah. This is Jim Varilek. I'd just say from a competitive standpoint, I mean the indexes are representative of what's taking place in the industry and there have been a support for all the announcements that have been made out there and they are being implemented according to the index. Herbert A. Hardt - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc.: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez of UBS. Please go ahead.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Just one quick question on Epoxy, like, outside of the maintenance outages you've had like, is everything on track for you to get to your goals that you had during the Investor Day. And again, remind us again like, what are going to be like the key drivers of that growth for us. Pat D. Dawson - Executive Vice President & President, Epoxy and International: Sure. This is Pat Dawson. And yes, we are on track, we continue to take the cost out of our entire supply chain in Epoxy, improving productivity, running our assets harder and obviously continuing to use our low cost position that we have starting with chlorine to drive that low cost position and to increase our volumes and fundamentally run our plants hard. So, bottom line is, we're on track and we'll continue to improve the Epoxy business.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov of Nomura. Please go ahead.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead

Good morning, thank you. Turning to slide 13, if I look at capital investment to achieve synergies, if I add up all the sort of the last two – the last two rows in 2016 and 2017, it looks like your cost will come down by about $210 million, is it fair to assume that, all of this accrues to your free cash flow gross next year and if so, are there any offsetting factors which try to build a bridge for 2017 free cash flow? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. I think the way we were looking at it is that, the total investment to capture synergies has actually gone up a little bit, but it's frontend loaded now. So, there will be significantly lower capital outlay or cash outlays next year and 2018 to capture synergies than we have been previously forecasting.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead

And I guess that total of those would be about $210 million? Am I correct, I'm just subtracting 2017 number from 2016? Todd A. Slater - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: Yeah. John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's correct. And we had previously been forecasting something in the neighborhood of $150 million.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead

Okay. And for working capital $175 million benefit this year, how much of that would you estimate as one time in nature for non-recurring next year? Todd A. Slater - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: Yeah, that's really a onetime major – that's the majority of it and it's sort of a permanent reduction in working capital.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead

Thank you. And Todd, a final question if I may, on taxes, would you expect cash taxes to be – all else equal higher or lower or maybe in terms of cash tax interest rate for 2017 versus 2016? Todd A. Slater - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: What we've said is, we would expect – we've previously said, we think normalized cash tax rate is 25% to 30%, but with the carry-forwards now from 2016, we're going to say that that's below, I think you could potentially see $40 million to $50 million cash tax reduction half of your modeling, half of a normalized rate in 2017.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dmitry Silversteyn of Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Good morning. Can you update us or give us an idea of how big the EDC and chlor organics businesses are within the vinyls and chlor organics division? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Dmitry, we've not provided that information.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Okay. So, there is really no way for us to model that. Okay. Can you talk about what's going on in hydrochloric acid, the bleach and potassium hydroxide market, sort of your I guess legacy businesses as far as destination for the chlorine molecule is concerned? James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: Yeah. This is Jim Varilek, I'll comment on that. As you might imagine, on the bleach side of things, we're entering into bleach season. The warm weather has been good for bleach, so the demand is strong there and pulling hard. On the hydrochloric acid standpoint, we're still kind of bumping along the bottom in terms of the demand and so forth. Pricing is stable, but not where we'd like it to be. But it's moving along. KOH is pretty stable. Raw material prices have been a benefit there, but prices are relatively stable and so is demand.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Okay. So nothing in terms of hydrochloric acid market recovery that we can point to with expectations for that business to improve? James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: Not that we see at this point.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

If you look at – just I want to make sure I understand the pricing commentary. So you got a 20% – or $20 a ton price increase in July on the spot market, which you expect to get some of that in your third quarter results and then more of that in the fourth quarter. Typically your price increases have been about 50% effective versus spot, so should we be thinking about $10 a ton increase in the fourth quarter and something less than that in the third quarter? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's probably the best way to think about it, yes.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Okay. And anything going on on the chlorine pricing right now or is it just maintaining them as is basically the goal at this point? James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: The chlorine – this is Jim Varilek, chlorine has moved, the index moved $5 in July.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

(36:27) James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: I'm sorry, we didn't get that question.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Okay. So the $5 increase that you've seen in chlorine pricings here in July, we should be expecting somewhere in the $2 to $3 increase by the fourth quarter, correct? James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: That's correct.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Okay. All right. And then just final question on sort of what's going on with the Epoxy market outside of the costs of planned maintenance shutdown? What does demand and pricing and raw material environment look like both in the U.S. and outside the U.S.? Pat D. Dawson - Executive Vice President & President, Epoxy and International: Yeah. This is Pat Dawson and I would say that overall demand for Epoxy typically is about 3% market growth. We're on the low side of that this year, especially in North America where you look at the industrial production being pretty anemic and really very low growth, combined with a tough oil and gas market that we all know about. When you move to Europe, Europe grows about 4%, 5%. It's very different dynamics in the industrial coatings market in Europe. And we see Europe being very stable with some slight improvements in pricing there. We're very small in Asia Pacific. We typically play in the downstream differentiated markets of wind energy, electric laminates where epoxy's used there. And those markets in Asia are actually stable, but the overall demand in Asia is significantly down due to the slowing of the Chinese economy over the last couple years. Latin America is a very small market. It's probably as much influenced by Mexico, which is doing just fine as compared to Brazil, which has been a very tough situation this year.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you. And so in that environment, how should we think about your ability to get pricing and your ability to grow volumes on year-over-year basis? Is it a sort of basically a low-single-digit volume environment and pricing flat to slightly negative? Pat D. Dawson - Executive Vice President & President, Epoxy and International: Yeah. I would say pricing is stable. And I wouldn't look at – we're not looking at any dramatic improvements in pricing. I think as I said earlier, the overall market is about 3% growth market; it varies in different areas. And so, year-on-year growth probably in the 2% to 3% range. But again, when you look at our upstream part of the business, the upstream we will continue to grow because we have a great cost position there, so maybe little bit better than 2% to 3% growth in the upstream. The midstream, which is primarily the liquid epoxy resin market is more in this – probably on the lower end of 3%, as I said, more like 2%, 2% to 3%.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please go ahead

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Roger Spitz of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Christopher Ryan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Yes. This is Chris Ryan on for Roger. Thanks my taking my questions. The first question, the Epoxy MD&A suggested the underlying Epoxy variable margins didn't materially change in Q2 2016 versus Q1 2016, is that correct? Pat D. Dawson - Executive Vice President & President, Epoxy and International: That's correct.

Christopher Ryan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you. And did you see any change in your upstream or base Epoxy business being (39:52) the BP-A at the LER business versus the downstream specialties business, which may have offset it or were they constant? Pat D. Dawson - Executive Vice President & President, Epoxy and International: I would say that on the upstream which we really define as, our allylics or allyl chloride or epichloride (40:13) integrated aromatics with our cumene, phenol that that is an area that we've continued to make good progress in selling those asset plant and running them harder. The downstream growth has been primarily in Europe and also to a degree in Asia Pacific in the wind and electrical laminate markets. So it's pretty – it's been pretty balanced quite frankly on the margin contribution between the downstream and the upstream. Upstream growing through integrated cost position. Downstream growing mainly through our formulation know-how and adding value with our formulation expertise with specific end-use customers.

Christopher Ryan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you. And finally, Hexion is shutting down its Norco epi facility, can you say if you're picking up that business? Pat D. Dawson - Executive Vice President & President, Epoxy and International: Yeah. That was announced by Hexion here last quarter. We are picking up some of that business.

Christopher Ryan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

That's all my question. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Owen Douglas of Baird. Please, go ahead. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hi, guys thanks so much for sharing some good information earlier. I wanted to kind of dig in a little bit more on that capital investments. So to just to make sure I had it right. So the investments you're going to be made in Q2 and Q3 and cumulatively all of that spend relates to the power supply agreements? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It relates to power. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. Can you provide a little bit more color on that? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It gives us access to a greater quantity of power that allows us to more fully run our facilities at an attractive price. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): So, is this sort of investment in a new facility that's coming up? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's access. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. I see. And you said that you expect to receive some of that benefit in 2016 I believe is that Q4, is that correct? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think we've talked about that we have made an investment that was going to positively impact margins on our EDC business and we would see that in Q4. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Are those two separate things? Sorry, I'm just having a hard time really understanding? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We describe them as a separate things. Yes. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay, I see. So, as far as that power agreement, do you believe that that positive impact would be received any this year or is this really more in the future? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: The vast majority of it as Todd said, it's a 20 year agreement as well in the future. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. But there will be some agreement to – some benefit in 2016? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Some benefit in the second half of 2016. Yes. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. So as we look to that bridge to the full year EBITDA, that's really been factored in there, right? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's correct. Trelford Owen Douglas - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jason Freuchtel of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Hi, I just had a quick follow-up. Will there be any opportunities for further debt reduction in the back half of the year of 2017? Todd A. Slater - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: This time, we are committing to pay our $205 million of maturing debt that occurs in 2016.

Jason A. Freuchtel - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Don Carson of Susquehanna Financial. Please go ahead.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Please go ahead

John, I just want to go back to caustic soda, what is – for the new Olin, what's your mix between export and domestic in terms of percentage that that goes each market, and why would the index realization be so much better in offshore than it is in domestic, do you have contract limitations in the domestic market or is there more just the competitive nature of the domestic market? James A. Varilek - Executive Vice President & President, Chlor Alkali Vinyls and Services: This is Jim Varilek. From a split standpoint, exports are about 10% to 20% of our total business on the caustic side, and there are contractual differences between the domestic and the export markets, just by the nature of the dynamics.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Please go ahead

Okay. And then looking at EDC, is that really a hedge to caustic soda. I mean, obviously caustic soda market or the export markets improve because of reduced demand for chlor-vinyls into Asian construction and hence less caustic production there. So, if EDC demand gets better, does that mean you're going to see, higher chlor alkali operating rates in Asia and hence lower export pricing and demand are the two kind of offset each other? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think, Don, the way we as a producer look at it as we look at the value of EDC plus caustic to determine what we're going to do and how hard we operate.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Please go ahead

Okay. And then finally on Winchester, you've seen a renewed demand surge such that I mean you've always talked about 2016 being above 2015, but are you now more optimistic on the outlook based on some of the trends you're seeing in ammunition demand? John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Don, I don't think our story as it relates to 2016 in Winchester versus 2015 has changed.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Fischer for any closing remarks. John E. Fischer - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, all for joining us today. And we look forward to speaking to you about our third quarter earnings in October or early November. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.