Earnings Labs

Olin Corporation (OLN)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 26, 2010

$27.30

+2.02%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.77%

1 Week

-0.89%

1 Month

+3.36%

vs S&P

+2.06%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Olin’s fourth quarter 2009 earnings conference call. My name is Kiana and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator instructions). I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Joseph Rupp, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please proceed.

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. With me this morning are John Fischer, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John McIntosh, Vice President and President of our Chlor Alkali Products Business; and Larry Kromidas, our Assistant Treasurer and Director of Investor Relations. Last night, we announced that net income in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $21.8 million or $0.28 per diluted share compared to $47.2 million or $0.61 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2008. Winchester achieved the highest level of fourth quarter segment earnings in its history reflecting the continuation of the stronger-than-normal demand that began in the fourth quarter of 2008. Segment earnings more than doubled in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of 2008 driven by better military sales, which increased 22% year-over-year and improved costs. Throughout by fourth quarter of 2009 segment earnings of $5.2 million exceeded our expectation and reflected seasonally weak demand. ECU netbacks improved approximately $50 or 13% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the third quarter of 2009. While chlorine and caustic soda volumes declined 8% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the third quarter of 2009. The fourth quarter 2009 Chlor Alkali operating rate was 70%. Our fourth quarter 2009 earnings include $37 million of pretax recoveries of environmental costs incurred and expensed in prior periods and a $1.2 million pretax gain associated with the sale of a former manufacturing facility Net income in 2009 was $135.7 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, compared to $157.7 million, or $2.07 per diluted share in 2008. Earnings in 2009 included pretax recoveries of environmental costs incurred and expensed in prior periods of $82.1 million, a $4.6 million pretax reduction in selling and administration expense associated with the favorable resolution…

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Joe. First I’d like to discuss a few items on the income statement. Selling and administration expenses decreased $4 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter 2008. Legal and legal related settlement cost decreased [$1.5] million in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, due to lower activity levels resulting from the conclusion of environmental recovery activities. Legal and legal related settlement costs relate to both the recovery actions for environmental costs incurred and expensed in prior periods. Legal cost for other environmental sites both past manufacturing operations and former waste disposal sites. Fourth quarter 2009 bad debt expense decreased by $1.3 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2008 and reflects recoveries from prior bankruptcy events. Finally, fourth quarter of 2009 incentive compensation cost declined approximately $1 million reflecting the lower level of cooperation and Chlor Alkali earnings. Fourth quarter of 2009 credits to income for environmental investigatory and remedial activities were $31.2 million, which includes the $37 million of pre-tax recoveries from third parties for costs incurred and expensed in prior periods. Without these recoveries, charges to income for environmental investigatory and remedial activities were $5.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to $6.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. These charges relate primarily to remedial and investigatory activities associated with former waster disposal sites and past manufacturing operations. As we look beyond 2009, we do not believe that there will be meaningful additional recoveries of environmental cost previously incurred and expensed in prior periods. Without giving consideration to the $82.1 million of full year 2009 environmental recoveries, full year 2009 charges to income for environmental investigatory and remedial activities were $24.1 million compared to $27.7 million in 2008. We currently expect charges to…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Sabina Chatterjee BB&T Capital Markets. You may proceed. Sabina Chatterjee – BB&T Capital Markets: In your guidance for Q1, what level of ECU pricing are you factoring in, considering the $75 per ton increases probably unlikely to materialize until the second quarter?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

When you look historically at pricing, our chlorine prices dropped in the second quarter of 2009, caustic prices dropped in the fourth quarter, which is typical with caustic (Inaudible). Our ECU dropped on a combined basis in the third quarter. We did same improvement as we said in our remarks in pricing for the fourth quarter and we expect as this cost or price increase becomes fully excepted in the market place that we are going to see continued improvement throughout the first half, but we don’t expect see a significant improvement in the first quarter. Sabina Chatterjee – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay, but sequentially, probably up modestly up from Q4 level is that fair?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

Well, I don’t know what you mean by modestly, we just don’t expect to see significant improvement in pricing from the fourth quarter to the first quarter and that’s really all we can comment on. Sabina Chatterjee – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. Just with respect to the cash at the end of the quarter at record levels and Joe had briefly mentioned acquisitions to enhance the bleach business. Can you just comment on how the pipeline looking both in terms of the supply and valuations and what sort of time line should we be constructing in our own minds?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

What I’d tell you is that we think that there are some opportunities out there valuation still are an issue, but we think if there are opportunities, Sabina, and we’d be looking to try to accomplish something here in 2010.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Edward Yang of Oppenheimer. You may proceed. Edward Yang – Oppenheimer: On the Chlor Alkali side what is the latest status on the $75 caustic soda price increase. You mentioned you expect to get all of it, but it’s been a bit slow in being implemented and we’ve also heard that a lot of buyers have already accepted half of that has that been the case for you?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

Several of the players in the industry have taken a little different position on this $75 price increase. Most everyone else with the exception of (Inaudible) has really segmented it into parts with half of it being effective or something close to half of it in January 1 with the balance of it to be effective February 1. We took a more aggressive approach and we have been pushing the entire price increase from January 1 in every situation where we could and where we want price with the competitive situation. So as we continue to move we hope that our success put us in a position where we will see the full impact of the price increase in the second quarter of course. Edward Yang – Oppenheimer: Okay, John. And does the $0.10 first quarter EPS guidance, does that include any negative impacts from the force majeure and McIntosh, I would assume that there is some negative absorption that could perceptually impact the first quarter?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

We don’t expect anything of any significance any impact to be minimal. Edward Yang – Oppenheimer: Okay. On the balance sheet again, sort of embracement of riches at this point. Over funded pension, net cash 60 million, will there be any working capital issues that could affect that net cash balance fourth quarter to first quarter?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

I think one thing we always talk about Edward is that, there is a fairly strong seasonal aspect to both of our businesses and it’s not an unusual to see working capital growth from the end of the year up until the middle of the third quarter the with Winchester running at the volumes they are running at the pricing levels, they are running that could be as high as $100 million. As you know, that’s something that we always think about when we think about our cash balances. So the answer is yes, it could be quite significant as we work through the next two and half quarters. Edward Yang – Oppenheimer: Okay. And you mentioned Winchester and Joe said that the major challenge at this point is tight inventory and inventories are down 20% year-over-year. Does that mean that you expect a new round of price increases to be announce, I know on a volume side you are pretty much constrained?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

We announced prices increases and basically those are effect of April 1 and they have been followed by everybody in the industry. Edward Yang – Oppenheimer: And what was the percentage of price increase, Joe?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

It’s 2% and 5% depending upon product lines.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Butler – Sidoti & Company. Christopher Butler – Sidoti & Company: I was hoping you would be able to touch on the growth that you’ve seen in bleach. I know you are up 17%, you said, I mean are we seeing your strong demand for bleach market wide due to concerns of things like swine flu or is this the situation where you guys are grabbing share in the market place?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

We did see some isolated cases for certain customers had some increase demand associated with this infection, requirements associated with swine flu. But that was a really something that moved in our market significantly. What we have seen is that customers are continuing to comes through realization that opportunities to buy bleach, carries with it in a convince and certain other products attributes that make positive comparison with some of the other alternatives for water treatment and this infection and so we’re taking advantage of that. We’re possible and utilizing our rail delivery model as the vehicle to expand the reach beyond where historically we have reached by making truck shipments from our producing locations. Christopher Butler – Sidoti & Company: In shifting gears to the Winchester segment, you’d mentioned that military sales were strong, could you give us some color on demand looking at a little bit with some concerns that the Obama effect might vein here over the next couple of years, but military actions doesn’t seem to be doing that. What do you thinking as far as demand for Winchester?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

Chris, I think from a military perspective as we’ve mentioned, we actually have contracts from a military perspective, they’re going to take us out to the 2011 time period, but the other aspect I think that’s going on in addition to that is the fact that we’ve uncertainty here and the regulatory expressed in the economic uncertainty that underscores the economic uncertainty we believe is continuing to drive ammunition demand. Christopher Butler – Sidoti & Company: And on the raw material front, you’d mentioned that they were a bit of a tailwind in 2009, are you looking at those to be a bit of a headwind as we move into 2010 on Winchester?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

Not a huge headwind, but I would point out that commodity prices have gone up compared to 2009.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sergey Vasnetsov of Barclays Capital. You may proceed. Sergey Vasnetsov – Barclays Capital: My question is on the mercury legislation. U.S. congress has (inaudible) and also in Europe when such a low was proposed it could delayed in some limitation by at least five to seven years. Based on those to practice would it be reasonable for us to expect that’s U.S. mercury legislation impacts from U.S. (Inaudible) industry in general would be past (inaudible) in practical terms?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · Sergey Vasnetsov of Barclays Capital

To the past 2015, I don’t know of anything certain with what’s going on in Washington, but our thinking is that it’s 20, 20 in Europe and we believe that what’s we’ve talked about today hopefully it is that or beyond from an industry prospectively we’d like to see that the conversation push beyond. Sergey Vasnetsov – Barclays Capital: On the U.S. Chlor Alkali capacity, these have some expectations to some plants being shutdown of the next years may be not specifically, but accompanied but what’s your overall U.S. market to you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · Sergey Vasnetsov of Barclays Capital

I think really Sergey, as you’re speaking from an Olin perspective you know we were evaluating the seasonal capacity needs that we need to be able to expand our bleach business and the reality is that the mercury technology is something that is uncertain, we can really predict what will happen there so we have to take that into mind, so the clarity for us from a capacity perspective is something that we continue to try to study. From an industry perspective we believe that historically the industry has tried to put supply and demand in alignment and as we have talk about in the past in the last downturn you know 12% of industry capacity were shutdown and we still think that there is that opportunity for capacity to be shutdown from an industry perspective. Sergey Vasnetsov – Barclays Capital: Would you care to quantify how much past might be shutdown by the industry next year?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · Sergey Vasnetsov of Barclays Capital

I don’t know

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Don Carson of UBS. You may proceed Don Carson – UBS: I have follow up on Winchester. How big is the military components there what percentage of sales did that represent in 2009? And just trying to get a sense of whether you, I know in the past you talked about as people rush to get ammunition, you had a gun control or proceed gun control threats that’s historically been about a six quarter long phenomenon, I guess we are four quarters into that now. You think 2009 was the peak for the Winchester or just that the military tailwind and some will be product developments give you continued momentum in 2010.

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

Don, I think two points. One is that we consider military and law enforcement in one category and that’s really and about the 25% range of our revenue and as we pointed out in the past we bought use around 10% to 15% range we push that in 25% to 30% range, what we’ve said before is just correct is that the surges sometimes last six quarters, I think that the difference with this surge is in addition to regulatory uncertainty, we’ve got economic uncertainty and it’s our sense of economic uncertainty is continuing to drive ammunition demand as we speak. Don Carson – UBS: And by that you mean is to need to have an extra dear in the freezer type thing or?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

Are to be able to protect yourself personally. Don Carson – UBS: Okay, good point. So would you still regard ’09 then it's not the peak that ‘010 could be used as good as ’09 from a profitability standpoint?

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

I think it’s hard to call it but I what I say is that I think ‘010 will be a very good year. Don Carson – UBS: Okay, and then switching over to Chlor Alkali, John McIntosh on the you know you talk about weakness in chlorine, do you think chlorine could come down more than you know what you might realize in plastic and there potential for lower ECU realization in Q1 and then two follow ups to that are you starting to see a little more pressure on electrical power, I know you done some things to optimize your consumption but what about the underlying power rates then finally surprise your operating rate was so low in the quarter were 70% versus an industry rate that was closer to that 80% what in particularly was driving there?

John McIntosh

Analyst · Don Carson of UBS

Well, let me try to catch him in the same order you asked. I think the pace of recovery and demand for chlorine or lack of is going to play into how much price pressure there is on the chlorine molecule moving forward. We just don’t see any significant change in the status quo at least for the first quarter that tells us we should expect a significant change in chlorine price is going to continue to be pressure on chlorine pricing and we may see some slight erosion, but we do have headwinds on the other part of the ECU or tailwinds on the other part of the ECU and so we expect not to see any kind of significant change first quarter and as we push the caustic price increase and we expect to see favorable impact for lead in the second quarter. In terms of electricity power rates, we really haven’t seen a lot of change in underlying rates as fuel prices continue to be low, whether you are taking about coal, natural gas we’ve not seen pressure from the energy cost part of electricity rates and we’ve just not seen any pressure in the electricity base rates too. Although, we expect depending upon the kind of regulation and cap-and-trade legislation that may ultimately come from Washington that longer term that there will be some impact to electricity power rates just not in the short-term. Operating rates for Olin in the quarter will lower than the industry. What we’ve seen historically is that in a low demand environment and that’s surely what we find ourselves in the fourth quarter and in a lot of 2009. The non-integrated producer like Olin is more impacted from an operating rate standpoint and some of the producers that have some degree up to total integration in our chlorine in their systems. So we’re not surprised with that, we understand that phenomenon and especially on the show over quarters where we don’t have seasonal demand are going to be disadvantage in this kind of environment.

Operator

Operator

With no further questions in the queue, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Joseph Rupp for closing remarks. You may proceed.

Joseph Rupp

Chairman

We’d like to thank you for joining us this morning. And we hope you will join us in April when we announce our results of our first quarter of 2010. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect and have a great day.