M. Kevin McEvoy
Analyst · James Crandell with Dahlman Rose
Good morning, and thanks for joining the call. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. We are very pleased with our record EPS for the quarter, particularly in light of the slow recovery of non-drilling activity in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Our overall operations performed within expectations, and we remain on track to achieve record EPS for the year. Our third quarter results were highlighted by all-time high quarterly operating income from our ROV and Subsea Products operations. Given our year-to-date earnings and fourth quarter outlook, we are raising our 2011 EPS guidance range to $2.11 to $2.15 from $1.90 to $1.98. We were initiating 2012 annual EPS guidance with a range of $2.35 to $2.55, as we expect another record earnings year. For our services and products, we anticipate continued international demand growth and a moderate rebound in overall activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The major determinant of our guidance range spread is the amount of operating income growth we generate from Subsea Projects business. For Subsea Projects, we expect to benefit from a gradual recovery in the Gulf of Mexico during 2012 and a substantial increase in revenue and operating income as a result of an anticipated international expansion for our deepwater vessel project capabilities. I'll talk more about our 2012 guidance later, but first I'd like to review our operations for the third quarter. As we had anticipated, our ROV days on hire and fleet utilization rate improved during the quarter on an increase in demand for international drill support and vessel-based services. Our days on hire increased to an all-time high of over 19,000, and our fleet utilization was 80%, up from 76% last quarter and 73% for the third quarter of 2010. Segment operating income rose sequentially and year-over-year to a record level. During the quarter, we added 8 systems to our fleet and retired 8. Our decision to retire such a large number of systems in one quarter was based upon a comprehensive review of the future work prospects of each vehicle and our strategy of operating a modern fleet. Year-to-date, we have added 16 systems to our fleet, retired 13 and transferred the use of 1 to ADTECH for non-oilfield use for a net increase of 2 vehicles. At the end of September, we had 262 systems available for operation, up 10 from September a year ago. We now anticipate adding 4 to 6 vehicles in the fourth quarter and expect our year-end fleet size to be 266 to 268 ROVs compared to 260 at the end of 2010. We do not foresee any retirements in the fourth quarter. Our fleet mix utilization during September was 75% in drill support and 25% on vessel-based work. This compares to a 71%-29% mix a year ago and 73% and 27% mix in June of 2011. At the time of our last earnings call, in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, we were receiving full rates for 26 ROVs on 23 rigs, a partial rate for 1 ROV and 0 rate for 1 ROV. Two of these rigs subsequently left the Gulf, one to Egypt, the other to Vietnam and we retained the ROV contract to support both of them. As of yesterday, we were on full rate for 25 ROVs on 22 rigs, all of which were working at 0 rate for 1 ROV on 1 rig which is not contracted. There are presently 25 floating rigs available for use in the Gulf of Mexico and we have ROVs on 23 of them. By the middle of next year, there are 5 known additional rigs currently scheduled to come into the Gulf, and we have the ROV contracts for all of them. One is an existing rig and 4 are new builds. So by mid-2012, we anticipate that there will be at least 30 rigs available for use in the Gulf of Mexico, and we expect to have ROVs on 28 of them. By comparison, we had ROVs on 31 of the 36 rigs in the Gulf pre-Macondo. As permitting becomes more routine, we believe additional rigs will be brought into the Gulf. Just last week, there was an announcement of another new build being contracted to work in this area commencing in the fourth quarter of 2012. We are pursuing the ROV drill support contract for this rig. Now turning to Subsea Products. As I indicated earlier, we achieved record operating income for this segment during the quarter. Sequentially, operating income rose on profit increases for most of our product lines led by increased sales of valves and Installation and Workover Control Systems, or IWOCS, services. Year-over-year, the increase in operating was primarily attributable to an increase in umbilical plant throughput and higher valve and tooling sales. At the end of the quarter, our products backlog was $403 million, comparable to $405 million at the end of June and $308 million one cents year ago. The year-over-year increase is attributable to higher backlog for umbilicals, tooling and valves. For Subsea Projects, our quarterly results include, in gross profit, the $18.3 million gain on the sale of the Ocean Legend. While we appreciate the gain on the sale of the Ocean Legend as a nonrecurring item, I personally want to thank the individuals who made this happen. There are a lot of ways to exit a business line, and adding $18.3 million of operating income is one of the best ways I know. I applaud their effort and the result. Absent this gain, third quarter operating income performance was sequentially slightly higher due to additional diving demand. Year-over-year, Subsea Projects' operating income declined as a result of lower demand and pricing for deepwater vessels and shallow water diving services. And lastly, our other expenses for the quarter was primarily due to foreign currency exchange losses. In summary, our third quarter operating results were in line with our expectations, and we are looking forward to realizing another year of record EPS performance in 2011. Our focus on providing products and services for deepwater and subsea completions positions us to participate in a major secular growth trend in the oilfield services and products industry. We are pleased with our cash flow generation, as demonstrated by $148 million of EBITDA during the quarter. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled about $50 million, of which $31 million was invested in ROVs and $12 million was spent in Subsea Projects, primarily on the Ocean Patriot renovation and the third saturation diving system. We now expect our CapEx for the year to be around $280 million, of which about $54 million is related to acquisitions. During the quarter, we also purchased 500,000 shares of our common stock at a cost of approximately $17.5 million, and we paid $16.2 million in cash dividends. At the end of September, we had $166 million of cash and no debt. Now let's talk about our outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2011, we are projecting EPS in the range of $0.48 to $0.52, up from $0.44 last year. With the exception of Subsea Projects, we are expecting year-over-year quarterly operating income improvements from the rest of our business segments led by an increase from ROVs. Subsea Projects results for the fourth quarter are expected to be lower. This decline is attributable to the current weak market conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the fact that we benefited last year from unseasonably high demand for our services on projects that have been delayed from the summer due to the Macondo well incident. Sequentially, we expect quarterly operating income improvement from ROVs and operating income declines from the rest of our business segments. Part of the declines can be attributable to normal seasonality, and the Subsea Products decline is mostly due to project timing. Looking forward to 2012, we are initiating EPS guidance for the range of $2.35 to $2.55 based on an average of 109 million diluted shares and an estimated tax rate of 31.5%. We have not completed our planning process, but the big picture of the annual 2012 versus 2011 changes we envision can be summarized as follows. ROV operating income is projected to grow on the strength of an increase in days on hire as we benefit from an increase in demand off West Africa and in the Gulf of Mexico and continue to expand our fleet. We anticipate adding 15 to 20 vehicles in our fleet in 2012 and retiring 4 to 6. For West Africa, we are anticipating an increase in ROV demand for both drill support and vessel-based services in 2012 compared to 2011. For the Gulf of Mexico we are projecting an increase in ROV demand for drill support services. We are encouraged by the recent pace of new deepwater well permitting by the BOEM and anticipate this trend will continue. We are projecting that for 2012, our days on hire will increase and that our fleet utilization rate will improve to 80% or more. Subsea Products' operating income is forecasted to be higher on the strength of higher tooling sales and increase throughput at our umbilical plants. We do foresee a very challenging Gulf of Mexico umbilical market for our Panama City plant due to the aftereffect of the drilling moratorium in 2010 and '11. Subsea Projects' operating profit is expected to improve substantially on international expansion of our deepwater vessel project capabilities. We are also anticipating a gradual recovery in demand for our shallow water diving and deepwater vessel services in the Gulf of Mexico. We are in discussions to undertake a multiyear international project that will allow us to expand our deepwater vessel project capabilities outside the Gulf of Mexico. If we secure this work, an appropriate press release detailing the award will be issued after we obtain customer approval. Given our lack of visibility for 2012 projects in the Gulf of Mexico, we are forecasting a gradual recovery in demand for our services in this area. The recovery we anticipate is particularly for saturation diving projects that may require the use of our new Ocean Patriot vessel. Whether we win the international services contract or not and the degree to which the Gulf of Mexico activity recovers are major determinants of our EPS guidance range spread. Our Inspection segment profit contribution is forecast to be slightly higher on increased global service sales. Advanced Technologies' performance is expected to increase primarily due to improved operating efficiencies and profitability on U.S. Navy surface vessels overhaul work and higher demand for submarine repairs. Unallocated expenses are estimated to be slightly higher. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we would expect our overall operating margin in 2012 to be about 16%, up from what we are anticipating for 2011 and about the same as it was in 2010. Based on our preliminary numbers, we are not anticipating any big changes in our segment operating margins in 2012 compared to 2011. During 2012, we anticipate generating at least $525 million of EBITDA. Our balance sheet and projected cash flow provide us with ample resources to invest in Oceaneering's growth. Our preliminary CapEx estimate for next year, excluding acquisitions, is $200 million to $225 million. Of this amount, approximately $125 million is anticipated to be spent on vehicle upgrades and adding systems to our ROV fleet. About $75 million is for Subsea Products to support our umbilical, tooling, IWOCS and Houston manufacturing operations. Our focus in 2012, as it was this year, will be on earnings growth and investment opportunities, both organically and through acquisitions. We are not presently going to give more detailed guidance information on 2012 and are not providing quarterly earnings guidance for next year at this time. For those of you who intend to publish quarterly estimates, I'd like to remind you that historically, our first quarter is the lowest of the year due to seasonality and that we tend to have higher earnings in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. Looking forward to 2012 and beyond, we are convinced that our strategy to focus on providing services and products to facilitate deepwater exploration and production remains sound. We believe the oil and gas industry will continue to invest in deepwater as it remains one of the best frontiers for adding large hydrocarbon reserves with high production flow rates at relatively low finding and development costs. Therefore, we anticipate the demand for our deepwater services and products will continue to rise and believe our business prospects for the next several years are promising. Others must share this belief. At the end of the quarter, there were 74 new floating rigs on order. 59 of these rigs are planned to be available by the end of 2013. 37 have been contracted long term for an average of over 8 years. Three more floaters have been ordered since then with 2014 shipyard delivery dates. Of the 37 contracted floating rigs, operators have let ROV contracts on 19 and we have won 8. So that leaves 58 ROV contracting opportunities for new rigs left to be pursued, of which 18 have operator contracts and 40 do not. If all of the rigs on order are placed into service, the global floating rig fleet size will grow 28% to 349 rigs. The high-spec fleet consisting of fifth- and sixth-generation semis and dynamically positioned drill ships, which currently totals 104 rigs, will grow nearly 75%. We historically have had a high market share on the high-spec rigs and are currently on 75% of them. Looking forward, we see no reason why we will not continue to be the dominant provider of ROV services on these units. As the use of floating rigs grows, we believe it is inevitable that discoveries will eventually drive orders for subsea hardware to levels not previously experienced, and demand for ROVs to support vessel-based activities will follow. Quest Offshore's latest subsea hardware forecast for the period 2011 to 2015 includes a 33% increase in tree orders over the previous 5 years. In 2012, subsea tree orders are projected to be 561, an all-time high, eclipsing the previous record of 462 trees in 2006. While we don't make trees, orders for subsea trees do drive demand for a substantial amount of ancillary subsea production hardware that we manufacture. For example, Quest is forecasting a 52% increase in umbilical orders for the 2011 to 2015 period. Furthermore, renewed industry and regulatory emphasis on safe and reliable operations is providing us additional opportunities to demonstrate our capabilities. With our existing assets, we are well positioned to supply a wide range of the services and products required to support the safe deepwater efforts of our customers. We believe Oceaneering's business prospects for the long term remain promising. Our commanding competitive position, technology leadership and strong balance sheet and cash flow enable us to continue to grow the company, and we intend to do so. In summary, our results continue to demonstrate our ability to generate excellent earnings and cash flow. We believe our business strategy is working well for both the short and the long term. We like our competitive position in the 2011-2012 oilfield services market. Our technology gives us the ability to prosper in challenging times. We are leveraged to what we believe will be an inevitable resumption in growth of deepwater and subsea completion activity. The longer term market outlook for our deepwater and subsea service and product offering remains favorable. The renewed industry and regulatory emphasis on reliable equipment and redundant safety features of deepwater operations is causing our customers to be even more focused on risk reduction. This elevates the importance of the utility and reliability of our ROV services and related product lines and reinforces the benefit of our value sell. For 2011, we are anticipating that we will achieve another record year of EPS performance and that 2012 will be even better. We think this distinguishes Oceaneering from many other oilfield service company. We appreciate everyone's interest in Oceaneering. I'll now be happy to take any questions you may have.