OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the OGE Energy Corp. 2026 third quarter earnings and business update call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, Casey Strange, Investor Relations Senior Manager. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning everyone, and welcome to our call. With me today, I have Sean Trauschke, our Chairman, President, and CEO, and Chuck Walworth, our CFO. In terms of the call today, we will first hear from Sean, followed by an explanation from Chuck of financial results. Finally, as always, we will answer your questions. I would like to remind you that this conference is being webcast, and you may follow along at oge.com. In addition, the conference call and accompanying slides will be archived following the call on that same website. Before we begin the presentation, I would like to direct your attention to the safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. This is an SEC requirement for financial statements and simply states that we cannot guarantee forward-looking financial results, but this is our best estimate to date. I will now turn the call over to Sean for his opening remarks. Sean?

Thank you, Casey. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. This morning, we reported consolidated earnings of $1.52 per share. Before Chuck provides more detail on our third quarter results, I will highlight the team's outstanding performance during an unusually hot summer and outline the key milestones we anticipate over the coming quarters. This summer underscored the importance of a reliable, resilient electric grid. Our service area experienced more than 45 days of triple-digit temperatures compared with just one last year. Through the prolonged heat, our system performed exceptionally well, and our team safely delivered the power customers depend on. For context, we hit a new peak load four times this summer, with 15 days exceeding our 2024 peak record. At no time were there calls for the public to conserve energy. Our system's just built to withstand these extremes. A note that's important. While our residential price per kilowatt hour was actually 7% lower in August and September than a year ago, extended air conditioning use drove higher electricity consumption. Weather impacts tend to balance out over time, and this summer's elevated cooling demand followed several quarters of milder temperatures and lower weather-driven usage. Our reliability focus shapes the Oklahoma rate review. This is our first since December of 2023. The filing reflects investments to strengthen our system, support growth, and meet evolving requirements while expanding assistance and payment flexibility for our customers. The review includes the following expanded assistance and payment options to help customers manage their bills. We are expanding both the senior discount and low-income assistance program. We are launching an innovative pilot program to help customers with past due balances get back on track with payments. We are offering new Choose My Due Date prepayment options that give customers more flexibility to manage their household budgets. As the regulatory process moves forward, we remain focused on balancing reliability and affordability and considering the impacts of inflation and interest rates and creating long-term value for customers and shareholders. Looking ahead, we are advancing additional generation resources to serve growing demand and maintain reliability. We filed yesterday with the Oklahoma Corporation Commission seeking pre-approval to construct a new 755 MW combined cycle plant at our Horseshoe Lake site, and we will file in the coming weeks with the Arkansas Public Service Commission. We are finalizing evaluations and negotiations from our competitive request for proposals and expect to submit projects to both commissions as agreements are completed. We remain committed to delivering capacity customers need responsibly and cost effectively, and we anticipate submitting additional pre-approval filings before year-end. Meanwhile, that broader generation strategy is taking shape. Horseshoe Lake units 11 to 12 were completed ahead of schedule and $12 million under budget. Bringing the units online early allowed us to avoid up to $16 million in capacity purchase this winter. These units add approximately 448 MW of flexible generation capacity, bringing the total additions this year to 544 MW. Units 13 to 14 are under construction and will add another 440 MW, and the Horseshoe Lake projects build on more than a 100-year legacy at that site while supporting reliable, efficient generation for the future. As we build and invest in our system, we are also strengthening support for our communities. We refreshed our Lend a Hand bill assistance program with a broader network of trusted nonprofit partners and a financial commitment from the OGE Energy Corporation Foundation to match customer donations. We will continue to support our vulnerable customers and assist communities as we deliver reliable electricity at low cost for everyone. As we move forward, we will continue our disciplined approach to securing generation resources needed to serve growing demand, advancing projects through the regulatory process, and delivering investments that maintain our competitive low rate advantage. Our progress to date positions us for several milestones over the coming quarters. On our fourth quarter earnings call, we will provide an update on the SPP Notices to Construct that we accept. On the first quarter call, we will provide an update on the Oklahoma rate review and the Horseshoe Lake 15 pre-approval case. On our second quarter call, we will provide an update on the regulatory approval for the additional generation filings we are making in this year. Together, these regulatory generation and community initiatives position the company for long-term success while preserving the reliable, low-cost service our customers enjoy. In doing so, they established the foundation for the investments needed to meet growing demand across our service area. With that, thank you, and I'll turn the call over to Chuck. Chuck?

Thank you, Sean, and thank you, Casey. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to review 2026's third quarter results with you today. Let's start on slide five. Consolidated net income was approximately $316 million or $1.52 per diluted share compared to $231 million or $1.14 per share in the same period of 2025. In our core business, the electric company achieved net income of approximately $321 million or $1.54 per diluted share, compared to $243 million or $1.20 per share in the same period of 2025. The increase in net income was primarily driven by significantly warmer third-quarter weather, partially offset by increased income tax expense. The holding company reported a loss of approximately $5 million or $0.02 per diluted share compared to a loss of $12 million or $0.06 per share in the same period of 2025. These results were driven by higher income from energy-related investments and lower interest expense. Turning to our 2026 outlook, weather through the third quarter was significantly warmer than normal, with summer temperatures reaching levels we haven't experienced in 15 years. As a result, we are raising our 2026 consolidated earnings guidance range to $2.62-$2.68 per share. This updated range assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year and reflects opportunities to execute work planned for future years. Demand across our service area remains healthy, with both customer growth and weather-normalized load growth at approximately 1%. The variance on load is largely timing related, reflecting customer ramps as well as maintenance outages that have reduced usage among some of our larger customers. Customer commitments remain firmly in place, giving us continued confidence in the stronger, longer-term growth ahead. That growth is translating into important investment opportunities across our system. Horseshoe Lake Unit 15 is a great example. As Sean discussed, the project was selected through our 2026 all source RFP and was the highest-ranked project in that process. Unit 15 will add efficient, dispatchable generation while leveraging the existing infrastructure at Horseshoe Lake. The project represents approximately $1.75 billion of investment with an expected in-service date in 2031. Recent legislation in Oklahoma provides significant benefits for customers as we make these investments. It provides CWIP recovery, which we estimate will save customers more than $900 million over the life of the asset while smoothing the impact on customer bills during constructions. The legislation also established a timely 180-day regulatory review process for pre-approval filings, providing greater certainty as we work to bring needed resources online. With the addition of Unit 15, we have approximately 1.1 GW of remaining capacity need. As we continue to finalize solutions to meet that remaining need, you should expect to see additional pre-approval filings. The bottom line is that our growing service area is creating a clear need for additional infrastructure, and we are moving quickly to advance investments that support reliability, serve that growth, and deliver long-term value for customers. With that growth and investment need in mind, let me turn to a financing update. We are establishing an inaugural at-the-market equity program, which authorizes up to $750 million of common equity issuances. The ATM gives us a flexible and efficient way to access equity as our capital needs grow, while its forward sale feature allows us to align issuance with the timing of our investments. That flexibility supports our growing capital plan while maintaining a strong balance sheet. With the approval of Frontier and the recent NTCs, our five-year capital plan now includes an incremental $555 million of investment. This includes $395 million related to the Frontier Energy Storage Project, which received regulatory approval during the third quarter, and $160 million of transmission investments planned between 2027 and 2030. As we've consistently communicated, projects are incorporated into our capital plan once we have received the appropriate approvals, at which point we will also provide our associated financing assumptions. With these investments now reflected in the plan, we expect approximately $200 million of incremental equity over the planning horizon, which we expect to raise through the ATM program. This balanced financing approach allows us to fund these investments while supporting strong credit metrics. In closing, our momentum continues to build. We remain focused on executing with discipline, maintaining affordability and a strong balance sheet, and making investments needed to serve growing demand. That focus positions us to deliver long-term value for both customers and shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back to Sean, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. We also ask that you wait for your name and company to be announced before proceeding with your question. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question will be coming from the line of Aidan Kelly of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the time today.

Hey, good morning.

Yeah, good morning. Just maybe want to follow up on the Horseshoe Lake 15 filing, if I could. Maybe how are you thinking about the likelihood of utility ownership versus third-party procurement for the remaining 1.1 GW of capacity needs as you kind of think through that?

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Aidan. I think it is our intent to own and operate the majority of that. We think we've proven that and when we have weather extremes, we want the ball, so to speak, to kind of operate those plants and make sure we keep the lights on. So it's our intent to own and operate this. We will utilize, obviously, some short-term bridge capacity and things like that as things are going under construction. But, it's our expectation to own it.

Great. Appreciate that. Then just going to the financing side, I know you mentioned the ATM program there. So with up to $200 million of equity supporting that expanded capital plan, I guess, how should we interpret the decision to establish a larger $750 million facility? Is that a read-through to the incremental financing into the next plan update? Or how do you address the sizing of that?

Yeah, Aidan, great question. This is Chuck. Really, I would say it's not tied to future opportunities. Frankly, we're one of the few utilities that didn't have an ATM, and given the vast opportunities in front of us, we thought it was time to establish one. So we did the usual routine of benchmarking the size and just did something that we thought was appropriate for our company. So again, it's not the only way to finance projects. We'll continue to evaluate all avenues of financing in the future. But it's definitely something we wanted to have at our disposal. So I wouldn't read into the numbers any. It's just us making sure we've got all the tools available.

Great. Thanks, Chuck. I'll leave it there. See you guys soon. Bye.

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from the line of Shahriar Pourreza of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Good morning. This is Whitney Mutalemwa on for Shar.

Good morning.

Congrats on the quarter. With rate base growing at a 9.6% CAGR against the long-term earnings growth rate, could you help us bridge that gap? Specifically what I'm looking for is how many basis points of regulatory lag you're running today versus your authorized return, and then how much of that you'd expect the rate review in Oklahoma as well as the CWIP rider to close over the plan?

Hey, Whitney, good morning. Great to hear from you. I think a couple of things on that. One, historically, we've done a fairly good job through cost control and capital allocation, to really earn close to our allowed ROE. I guess that's point number one. Then in terms of the rate case impact, obviously that's a key impact there. But also remember that with plant and service accounting, and load growth, that's a pretty good bridge as well between that. I guess what I'm trying to get to is that I would expect our earned ROE to continue to be smooth into the future, rather than taking step function changes and resetting with rate cases. Hopefully that helps paint a picture for you.

Yes. I totally understand. Just as a follow-up to Aidan Kelly's question on the new ATM, I saw that there's a lower 55%-60% payout target. Is the 35%-40% equity share on today's additions a reasonable framework for Horseshoe Lake 15 and the 765 as they come in?

Whitney, we look at every project individually and not only on the project, but where other conditions are at the time that we finance and the length of it and the attributes and everything. So, you've kind of seen two announcements from us now on equity raises, so you can kind of use that as a gauge. But at the end of the day, we're solving for our credit metrics over the long term, and that's going to dictate how we finance it.

Well understood. Thank you, gentlemen. See you at EEI.

All right. Thanks, Whitney.

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of Nicholas Campanella of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hello, Sean. Hello, Chuck. Good morning.

Hey. Good morning, Nick.

Good morning .

First question is, of the 14 winning bids, how many will be owned and how many are PPA?

Are you talking about the remaining generation need we have?

Yeah.

Yeah. I think it's our intent with what we've demonstrated today to own this. We will utilize some bridge capacities, obviously, during construction and periods like that. But we've not finalized all those negotiations yet, but I want to reiterate one more time that it's our intent to own these. We think that's the better outcome for our service territory.

Okay. Thank you.

One moment for the next question, please. Our next question will be coming from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. It's Brian Russo for Julian.

Hey, good morning, Brian.

Good morning, Sean. Good morning, Chuck. Could you just talk about OGE's positioning and/or strategy with the upcoming SPP 2026 ITP? What can we expect from that board meeting I think is planned for November?

Yeah. Hey, Brian. Obviously, it is something we have been tracking and been involved in very closely. I think if you recall, the 2025 ITP kind of took a while to play out, and as we indicated in our remarks, we expect some closure on the NTCs later this year. I cannot give specific dates, but I would not think it would be unreasonable that the 2026 ITP follows kind of a similar cadence. You are right, there is a SPP board meeting in November, and then there is another one in February. I believe the one in February will likely address which lines are direct assigned due to reliability reasons. Then the process will kind of go from there. It is a little early still for the 2026 ITP, but again, the numbers that are out there publicly are pretty impressive and definitely a lot of good stuff out there.

Okay, great. Just to clarify, the $160 million you added to the base plan for transmission, that is not the Shreveport to Seminole line.

No

correct?

No, it is not. It is out of the 2025 ITP. There were a number of projects assigned to us out of the 2025 ITP, the largest being the Seminole to Shreveport, now Longwood line, but there were a couple other smaller ones, and so those are the ones that we have added today.

Okay, great. Then can you just comment on your existing cryptocurrency load and any migration or conversion towards the proposed or pending XLPL? How might that change your resource plans in the future, I guess, excluding this 1.1 GW that is remaining under the 2026 IRP RFP?

Brian, I think as we've indicated before, crypto load converting to AI is something that we continue to see an interest in. We don't have anything to announce on that other than that continues to be a theme. I think the main thing to remember as it pertains to the 1.1 GW is really the nature of the load, right, and the requirements from the SPP. To the extent that the load changes its nature and it increases our capacity needs, you're going to see that 1.1 GW go up.

Okay, great. Then just lastly, I assume you're reaffirming the top end of the 5%-7% EPS CAGR, even with now the 9.6% rate base growth versus 9% previously. When might we expect the next kind of update on the CAGR? Would it be with the Notice to Construct on the SPP line or further into 2027 after we get approval of this Horseshoe Lake 15?

Yeah. Brian, we'll definitely take a fresh look at it next year. As Sean mentioned, we've got really a pretty busy calendar of quarterly events next year. Whatever decisions we make on that, we'll do it holistically with all those events in mind.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from the line of Rue Jia of Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. This is Rue for Anthony Crowdell. Thank you for taking my question.

Good morning.

Good morning. Thank you. Just a follow-up on the Horseshoe Lake project. Following your pre-approval filing, you mentioned the 180-day review timeline. Given the history on this project, can you just walk us through what are some of the key factors for the review? Which area would you expect to see some scrutiny about? Thank you.

In terms of. So I think it will just be the normal and customary discussions. We follow the commission process in terms of going through a robust RFP. The staff initiated an independent reviewer that evaluated all of the bids, along with us. I think it is duly noted or should be duly noted that being able to utilize brownfield sites and really to capture those benefits and really further reducing the cost, in particular of Horseshoe Lake 15, it is material, and it really moves the needle. I think the last point would be our demonstrated excellence around bringing these projects in on time and on budget. We have been building gas plants for a while now. This is not a new thing for us, and so we have got the track record. Normally you would have a discussion about need. That is evident to all involved. Sometimes you would have a discussion about if you follow the process. We have done that to a T. Sometimes you would have a discussion around, can you do this? Do you have the capabilities to do this? We have demonstrated that before. The last point is it economic? Clearly, on a price per kW, it stacks up very well. I do not want to suggest there will not be discussions. There is always going to be discussions. But I think the fact pattern around Horseshoe Lake 15 is very strong.

Perfect. Super clear. Thank you so much.

Thanks.

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of Ian Rapp of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe going back to Horseshoe Lake again. As you work through the remaining RFP submissions, and obviously, we don't want to front-run those negotiations and those announcements, but looking at capacity types and technologies, I know this was kind of framed as the number one option in terms of the ranking in the RFP, both on cost and other attributes being responsive to SPP rules. Just curious how we should think about your plan around different technology types and whether this cost per kW is repeatable for the 1.1 GW remaining.

Well, as Chuck mentioned, this was the number one-rated project. We are sensitive to the cost of the projects and the value it brings to our customers. I think we've been straightforward in terms of primarily it's going to be gas. Maybe some combination of some solar and storage, but principally gas. I'll probably leave it there because we're still finalizing these negotiations and just don't want to give anything away.

Fair enough. That's helpful. Then maybe this has already been asked and answered to an extent, but just philosophically, as you guys kind of think about the EPS CAGR updates and balancing sort of the seemingly increasing number of buckets of incremental CapEx versus your preference to be conservative with guidance and making sure that it's sustainable. How are you thinking about kind of the cadence of step changes there? Is that something that you're going to kind of look at once per year or continue to look at the EPS CAGR on a project-by-project basis as they roll in?

Yeah. You came in a little choppy there, but I think I got it. Cadence of EPS CAGR updates. Kind of similar to the question earlier. We don't necessarily look at it in tiny, discrete areas, right? So like, this project is this and so on. We'll take a holistic view of it next year in light of kind of the timing of various projects and the opportunities that we see. But again, kind of keep in mind what we've done in the past, right? We have the multi-step process where we tell you about the projects we're working on, we get them approved, we add them to the plan, we tell you what that's doing in terms of rate base growth. We tell you how we're going to finance it. So there's a lot of keys to information along the way, right? And then, when we think that there's kind of a critical mass, we will give the appropriate update at the time.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. One moment for the next question, please. Our next question is coming from the line of Stephen D'Ambrisi of RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is muted. Please unmute your line. As there are no more questions in the queue, I would like to turn the call back over to Sean Trauschke. Please go ahead for closing remarks.

Oh, thank you, Lisa, and thank you everyone for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you in a few weeks, and I hope everyone has a great day.

Thank you all for joining the program today. You may now disconnect.