Corning Painter
Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Diana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. I will start today’s call by providing general comments on our performance and the industry backdrop. Our CFO, Charles Herlinger will then provide detail on our financial results and related matters for 2019. Then I’ll come back and share some closing comments. We will then be happy to take your questions. Turning to Slide 3, we saw solid performance in the second quarter, which was in line with our expectations when we issued our last release. April, as we said previously was an improvement from March. May was stronger yet. But in June, particularly in the second half, volumes weakened in many of our end markets. During the quarter, we drew down our inventory levels, which contributed to a lower overhead absorption and thus a negative impact in our P&L of $4.8 million. Despite this, our adjusted EBITDA improved $6.9 million or 10.8% from Q1. Despite Q2, looking forward now to the rest of the year, we see uncertainty and trading conditions affecting demand generally and with customers continuing to be conservative about their stocking of the more premium grades of our Specialty business as they continue to manage their own supply chains with caution. While Q2 results improved substantially over Q1, we were down on the prior year record quarter, reflecting the challenging overall market environment for the industry, particularly in the Specialty business. While we saw an increase in Specialty volumes both year-over-year and particularly versus the first quarter mix continued to be weaker than our norm for the reasons just mentioned. In contrast, our Rubber business delivered a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA both compare to the prior year as well as the first quarter, reflecting the impact of the 2019 pricing cycle coupled with excellent operational performance and stable demand. A continued healthy supply demand balance in the Rubber markets coupled with a stable replacement tire market along with improved volumes, particularly in China, contributed to this positive development. In support of these developments, we remain very focused on actions within our control such as channel management, closely managing inventory, stepping up our efforts to qualify our products with customers, progressing a number of key marketing programs and tightly controlling costs. In addition, we continued to strengthen our management team, having added new leaders to strengthen our Americas business, global operations and the HR function. Most importantly, we continue to focus on being cash positive for 2019 and beyond by managing our capital investments and working capital levels in line with the trading environment with our strong balance sheet underpinning our commitment to the dividend. To cap the quarter off in a positive note, Orion was admitted to the Russell 2000 Index on July 1, 2019, a year ahead of the originally planned date. This was the result of a lot of focused work to convert our financial statements, U.S. dollars and U.S. GAAP, and thus make Orion more accessible to a broader investor base. Looking at the regional markets, our Specialty volumes in Asia were up significantly versus the first quarter reaching levels comparable to a year ago. Although this recovery in volumes from the first quarter was concentrated in some of our lower margin products as customers continued to be cautious with stocking their supply chain with our premium grades and due to some weakness in OEM automobile markets. In EMEA, Specialty volumes held up well compared to the prior year with some local variations. Although the coatings markets continued to display softness in line with this dampened OEM demand. In the Americas trade tensions contributed to weaker volumes tested for export compared to last year and unfavorable product mix. We executed our action plan to improve certain sales channels in China and Rubber MRG related volumes rebounded well from Q1, reaching levels broadly consistent with prior year levels. Our Rubber Americas business remains strong in Q2 with volumes again above prior year levels. We continued to, however, be impacted by worsening unfavorable feedstock differentials in 2019 particularly in this market. These unfavorable feedstock impacts combined with the cost associated with compliance investments our whole industry is making in the U.S. to comply with EPA requirements means that our rubber pricing levels continued to be below those needed to earn a satisfactory cost of capital, as we have previously discussed. In Europe, we saw some softening in volumes towards the end of the quarter and we now expect these software market conditions to continue in the second half of this year. Annual Rubber contract price negotiations for 2020 and in some cases later years as well are underway with some customers underscoring the healthy supply demand dynamics in our industry, as summarize for your reference in the appendix on Slide 20. As mentioned earlier, to deal with the unfavorable feedstock impacts and supported by high levels of utilization, we are taking actions. And in July, we announced price increases of $0.08 per pound for Rubber grade carbon black and $0.07 per pound for Specialty grade carbon black in North America and an enhanced priceless for certain services. The Rubber grade price increase is structured as $0.04 base price increase and $0.04 to account for CVO differential surcharges. Despite being encouraged by the sequential improvement we have seen as the year progressed, and with our performance in the second quarter, the macroeconomic environment remains more challenging than we had anticipated at the end of last quarter, especially in the automotive markets. Therefore, for the second half of the year, we anticipate the customers will continue to be running at conservative production and inventory levels for the remainder of 2019 with the usual seasonal effects in the fourth quarter. Given this change in outlook for the second half of 2019, we are trimming our guidance for the full year adjusted EBITDA for 2019 to the range of $265 million to $285 million, from our previous guidance of $280 million to $300 million. Our revised guidance for 2019 also takes into account a continued negative effect of product mix and Specialty as well as the negative impact of feedstock differentials in both Rubber and Specialty. Please turn to Slide 4, clear measured and efficient capital allocation remains a top priority for Orion. As we continue to utilize all the levers at our disposal to deliver on our commitments to shareholders. Specifically, we continue our strong commitment to the dividend at current levels. Our consistent track record on this from our IPO to date is summarized on the table on this slide. At the same time, we will continue to invest in must do safety, maintenance and compliance projects to strengthen the foundation of our business. The U.S. EPA related investments that we and the entire U.S. carbon black industry are committed to over the next few years represent the largest portion of our compliance projects by far, with the bulk of these expenditures expected to be incurred in 2019 and 2020. While these onetime capital expenditures could make us a bit more selective regarding other value enhancing investments. We continue to be confident that the significant portion of these outlays will be reimbursed to us by Evonik under the provisions of our agreement to with them. Due to the length of arbitration, which we have commenced in the second quarter, reimbursement could well exceed two to three years. While we would rather invest in additional high value added projects, which are bound in our core business, these outlays on complex compliance projects do, in fact, continue to strengthen the moat around our business. The two main impacts being increased technical knowhow needed to efficiently compete in our market and the considerable upfront cost outlay necessary and thus sharply increased cost of capital associated with adding capacity. In summary, we remain focused on maintaining a sensible balance between competing uses of capital to underpin our dividend. In times of increased economic volatility, we will proactively manage our discretionary capital spend and working capital investments to balance the competing needs of our business. In practice, this means that during the course of the year, we will periodically review our opportunities and pace our spending accordingly. To be ample runway in our core carbon black business, I am especially pleased to have enhanced our leadership team by bringing on strong operational talent with the recent management hires. These new leaders position us well to go after the healthy backlog of value enhancement opportunities including the development of new products, exploiting new applications, improving product quality debottlenecking in-demand plants and improving our overall efficiency. As Slide 5 shows, we have a pathway to deliver strong cash performance, while continuing to service our dividend and operate within our guidance range assuming there is no reimbursement under the Evonik indemnity this year and the swings in working capital balance out over the short to medium-term. This shows the ability of our business to front EPA related compliance costs. At the same time, continue to move the business forward while navigating a relatively challenging trading environment. Please turn to Slide 6. This year-on-year EBITDA walk provides key insights into the underlying drivers of our business. Most importantly, you can see the significance of the base price increases mainly in Rubber more than offsetting negative product mix in Specialty. This analysis also shows the impact of both worsening foreign exchange translation impacts, as well as the absorption of increased negative feedstock differentials. These two factors accounted for nearly all of the overall deterioration from last year strong quarterly performance at the total group level. This slide also quantifies the year-over-year earnings impact from the inventory draw down, I mentioned earlier. While this was a headwind for the quarter, we believe it was the right decision as we proactively manage our business, while taking advantage of our improved operational reliability. Having dissected the second quarter in this manner, you can see that our overall business on an underlying basis remained healthy and developed largely consistent with our expectations. This analysis does, however, also underscore the importance of us recovering the negative impacts of worsening feedstock differentials. Our recently announced price increases and the CBO differential surcharge are step in this direction. Before I pass the call over to Charles, I would like to share that he is decided to retire at the end of this year. I would like to take a moment to thank him for the critical role in the company’s development and his many contributions. Charles will continue until the end of the year and will support the search for replacement and the transition. Speaking personally, Charles has been a tremendous guide for me, since I joined Orion. Charles, thank you for all you have done for the company and for being an exceptional colleague.