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Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 9, 2024

$15.63

+0.51%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the ODDITY's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and we have allocated time for prepared remarks and Q&A. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Maria Lycouris, Investor Relations for ODDITY. Thank you. You may begin.

Maria Lycouris

Management

Thank you, operator. I'm joined by Oran Holtzman, ODDITY's Co-Founder and CEO, and Lindsay Drucker Mann, ODDITY's Global CFO. As a reminder, management's remarks on this call that do not concern past events are forward-looking statements. These may include predictions, expectations, or estimates, including statements about ODDITY's business strategy, market opportunity, future financial performance and potential long-term success. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release issued yesterday and in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 6, 2024. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. Finally, during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful supplemental measures for understanding our business. Additional information about these non-GAAP financial measures, including their definitions, are included in our earnings press release, which we issued yesterday. I will now hand the call over to Oran.

Oran Holtzman

Management

Thanks everyone for joining us today. The beauty industry is transforming, and ODDITY is leading this transformation. The strength and resilience of our direct-to-consumer model is on full display in this market backdrop. In contrast to most of our competitors, who are experiencing slowing sales, weaker foot traffic, and excess inventory, ODDITY is constantly delivering strong and profitable growth. Our third quarter results once again demonstrate how ODDITY is leading in the most important vectors of growth in the global beauty market. First, the massive consumer shift online, where ODDITY is already dominating as the largest direct-to-consumer platform online. And second, the consumer's increasing demand for high performance products Results for this quarter show how our early investments in technology continue to pay dividends, allowing us to deliver yet another quarter of outstanding growth, profitability, and strong cash flows. It creates a positive feedback loop for our business, as we redeploy our strong excess cash flows to double down on investments in technology, science, and building new brands, all of which will strengthen our competitive position and will continue to deliver our future growth. Turning to our earnings results, we once again broke records across our P&L. For the first 9 months of this year, revenue increased 27% to $523 million. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $135 million and generated $119 million of free-cash flow, close to 90% of EBITDA converted to cash. To understand how strong those results are, this compares to mid-single digit growth for our large-cap competitors. Our numbers show once again the power of online and how strong our model is. As I have said many times before, the consumer shift online is a massive industry driver, and therefore we believe that the majority of the softness in beauty numbers for our competitors is mainly due…

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Management

Thanks, Oran. Let's turn to our Q3 results which I will refer to on an adjusted basis. You can find the full reconciliation to GAAP in our press release. ODDITY delivered another record-breaking quarter across the board. We grew net revenue by 26% in the quarter to $119 million. The strength was driven by both IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild across a range of product categories. Net revenue growth was driven primarily by an increase in orders, while average order value increased 9% year-over-year. Average order value growth was driven both by an increase in items per order and positive mix shift to higher priced products like skin, partially offset by a mix shift to repeat sales which carry lower AOV. The 26% revenue growth we delivered this quarter beat our 22% to 24% guidance. This upside stands in contrast to the concerns we hear from investors about weakening sales trends in other beauty businesses, including both wholesalers and retailers. As Oran said, our results are a testament to the strength and resilience of our direct-to-consumer model, and how we've positioned our business to win in the most important vectors of industry growth. In fact, our business is firing on all cylinders. Let me give you some examples of how. Our latest customer cohorts are our strongest cohorts ever. Frequency of repeat revenue in our latest cohorts are the best ever. Repeat continues to increase as a percent of sales. AOV continues to increase, including first order and repeat AOVs, which are our highest ever. We are scaling both brands across a wide demographic of consumers, old and young, high income and low income. Revenue growth is broad based across different categories and products. All of our product vintages are growing. From the 2018 and 2019 product vintage to the 2023…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian

Analyst

So Lindsay, A, can you give us a little more detail on that strong start in Q4, and any more info on what you're seeing in the business so far this quarter? And then also just looking ahead, can you give us an update on Brands 3 and 4, when you really expect the revenue contribution from those brands to start to ramp up and the timing of the rollout as you look towards next year, and any spending upfront ahead of that, and how you think about the spending prelaunch?

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Management

Thanks Dara. So Q4 started strong with continued good momentum from Q3. Q3 was an excellent quarter for us. Like, as I talked about, really our cohorts are performing at their best ever. As you know, Q3, Q4 are mostly repeat business for us, but we do have a lot of signals based on how we see our customers behaving and our users behaving. And the customer behavior that we saw in Q2, which was very strong, continued, and that includes repeat rates being at their best, AOV being at its highest, both first order and repeat order AOV. And that's because people are adding more items to their order. So we're increasing order size in terms of number of items. But also we're getting a nice positive mix tailwind from skin, in particular, and just general share of the higher-priced products, which is a great signal in terms of customer demand and their willingness to spend more for the value that we deliver. We're seeing growth in all of our product vintages. So our original 2018-2019 product lineup that we launched in the U.S. which continues to grow even as the newer product vintages that we released this year, last year, the year before, all of those new franchises that continue to layer on. But I guess, what I would stress is, that all of this really is according to plan. We have a lot of control over our business, as you know, and a lot of visibility and ability to predict and drive the ultimate outcome for the quarter. And so that's what we saw transpire in Q3, and that's exactly what we're seeing entering Q4 with high visibility to the strong finish that's reflected in our guidance.

Oran Holtzman

Management

Yes. As for Brand 3 and Brand 4, both brands are being developed and progress according to the plan. Both will be ready second half of next year. The most important part is, for both brands we continue to use IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild user base to create new segments -- user segments for those new brands. So once we launch them, we launch it for existing user base, which is very important. And as for the progress, I will just give more sense about Brand 3. We are actively building and scaling the teams. We completing -- we completed the branding process. We set up our telehealth infrastructure, including physician network and pharmacists to streamline our user experience, and support the delivery of personalized treatment. We continue to do very large-scale consumer studies extensively testing our new product and treatment. Just because it's super personalized and customized it requires a lot of work. Vision technology has made great progress, including intensity, localization, classification. We are working on this technology for more than 2 years, and we see great results, and this is before launch. And lastly, generative AI models are being built to show expected progression over multiple week horizon for the treatment, which is something that we added recently, and we are very bullish about the ability to create better results and to set better expectations with our users. Brand 3, we don't share much. We are also not sharing too much internally, to be honest. Brand 4, sorry. But everything is according to the plan, has its own team, has its own CEO already, and we are progressing and it will be a great brand.

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Management

Let me just add one more thing to what Oran said. We said this, but it bears repeating, because I've gotten this question before. For Brand 3 and 4, we don't expect any material contribution to our revenue for 2025, as we've talked about achieving 20% revenue. We don't need Brands 3 and 4 to achieve those targets either. As Oran said on the call, IL MAKIAGE was very strong and SpoiledChild very strong. And we believe IL MAKIAGE is on track to be a $1 billion business and same with SpoiledChild. So we still have tremendous amount of growth in our base. So the revenue contribution next year will be not material from any of our new initiatives. However, the cost structure will be material, which is why we're guiding to gross margin compression towards 20% next year.

Oran Holtzman

Management

And the reason it's not going to be material, not because the brands are not going to be strong, just because when we launch it end of next year, second half, even if it starts really like great, still the base of ODDITY is huge. So to move the needle, it requires more than just a few months of a new brand.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Boone of JMP Securities.

Andrew Boone

Analyst

Lindsay, can you help unpack the top-line growth you gave us? Can we better understand the 9% AOV increase? And then if I think about unit growth kind of that's implied with that in the mid-teens. How do we think about unit growth for '25 as we think about the 20% formula? And then Oran, a bigger picture question on generative AI. We're seeing major improvements with Meta and Google being more relevant. I'm assuming that also applies to the targeting that you guys are able to do in terms of matching consumers. Can you help us better understand what that technology has accomplished for you guys and how you're using it?

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Management

I'll start on AOV. AOV has been an ongoing tailwind for us although the primary driver of our revenue growth, both this year, each quarter and looking back has really been order driven. However, we are seeing AOV growth despite the fact that we've had this pretty big shift from being a mostly first order business to now being a majority repeat business and repeat carries a lower AOV. So we've had AOV growth despite the headwind from that shift to repeat. And the driver has been mostly people are -- we're growing order size. We're able to do that because we've expanded our product line, and our models are doing a better and better job every single day, matching people with the right products so that we can increase things like upsells and bundles, and we've been really effective at that. In addition, we've been able to increase AOV just based on mix. So a lot of the new product introductions we've had, including in skin, have higher price points associated. So it's been a lot of things, and again, it all kind of comes back to our model. We have not been big -- these are not from like straight-line price increases across products. We have taken those in the past, and we have that muscle, and we use them judiciously. But that has not been a meaningful driver for us at AOV. Going forward, as we look into the future, primary driver of our revenue growth will continue to be orders.

Oran Holtzman

Management

You're right calling out Meta and Google for GenAI. And we said multiple times, like it's not only about the models, it's about the data. And what we have is so much data in our industry, and it allows us to build models that will help us do better job in personalization and customization. We are working a lot in that regard for Brand 3 because it's a treatment, and it's so important to set expectations and to make sure that we are doing a great job in customization, personalization. But again, early for us. We believe that it's going to help us in multiple areas, and the teams are testing. And when we have more to demonstrate and to showcase, we will.

Operator

Operator

For our last question, we have Youssef Squali from Truist Securities.

Nick Cronin

Analyst

This is Nick Cronin on for Youssef. So as you think about the opportunity ahead in international expansion, how do you think about that, the size of that opportunity? And when do you think you'll start leaning into that? And then secondly, Oran, I think you mentioned skin and body issues for Brand 3. I'm just curious, does that imply you're considering offering GLP drugs? Or is it really more focused on the skin side of the house?

Oran Holtzman

Management

I will start with the second question. We don't have any plans to do now GLP, so we started with body and skin. But again, no intention for GLP at that point. What was the second question, Lindsay?

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Management

Well, just to follow up. When we refer to body issues, it includes things like eczema and other body conditions, not weight loss.

Oran Holtzman

Management

International.

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Management

Second question was on international.

Oran Holtzman

Management

Yes, international. We are already very successful and high profitable in all geographies we've officially launched, which is Canada, U.K., Germany, and Australia. International, it's a huge growth opportunity for us. Looking at our competitors, we think that international can be 50% of our business over time. And we totally localized experience in each geography based on what we know, we are either #1 or #2 in each country that we opened so far. And what we continue to do is, we are ready to go in new markets that are fully localized, large geographies that the team already set up, test live in market, in thousands of orders to make sure unit economic and satisfaction is strong. And we are waiting. We are waiting because we don't need them yet, but it doesn't mean that we are not going to use it in 2025. We have always slow played the international market expansion to when needed revenue-wise and to make sure that we are very successful in those countries that we already opened. So again, international is a huge opportunity for us. I believe that over time, it will be more than 50% of the business. But for now, we are still focused primarily on the U.S. And thank God, we don't have exposure to the Chinese consumer, which is tough now.

Operator

Operator

So there are no further questions at this time. That concludes our Q&A session. I'd like to turn the conference over to Oran Holtzman, Co-Founder and CEO. Please go ahead.

Oran Holtzman

Management

Thank you, guys, for joining. See you next quarter with another great quarter. Bye, guys.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.