Armen Panossian
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Matt. On our last call, I described the volatility in direct lending as more a period of recalibration than a systemic issue. I also walked through specific investor concerns around direct lending, including rising impairments, the use of leverage, liquidity mismatches, software exposure in an AI-driven world, and refinancing risk. On today's call, I want to provide a brief market update, take stock of how these concerns are evolving, and explain how they inform our approach at Oaktree. First, the market backdrop. The June quarter was less volatile than the March quarter. Credit and equity markets stabilized, and the general tone was less bearish, although dispersion continued to be a dominant theme. For example, the broadly syndicated loans market showed a bifurcated recovery. Spreads for single B and single B+ loans retraced most of the widening experienced during the March quarter and ended June close to December 2025 levels. New issuance in the broadly syndicated loan market also resumed, and many transactions priced at or through the tight end of initial price talk. However, the recovery has not been uniform. The spread on traded B- credits remain wider than they were in late 2025, and new issuance among lower-rated borrowers remains limited. The direct lending market was also more subdued. Spreads remain wider than 2025 levels, while direct lending deal value declined to a 2.5-year low. The decline in deal flow largely reflected the slowdown in private equity activity, with quarterly deal value also declining to a multi-year low. Sponsors continue to face a difficult exit environment amid a wide bid-ask spread between sellers and buyers, geopolitical uncertainty, a less predictable macroeconomic outlook, and the possibility of slower growth alongside persistent inflation. In this environment, the balance between private credit borrowers and lenders has improved. Competition has generally been more rational and underwriting standards have strengthened. On average, loans issued in calendar 2026 offer more attractive terms than transactions completed in 2024 and 2025. During the June quarter, new sponsor-backed first lien direct loans were pricing in the range of SOFR plus 500 to 550 basis points, consistent with the March quarter and above the 2025 tights of SOFR plus 450 to 475. However, competition for new deals, especially in middle market first lien direct lending, increased towards the end of June and compressed average spreads closer to 500 basis points. Now I'll turn to the specific concerns we highlighted last quarter, beginning with impairment risk. Across the direct lending industry, credit issues have continued to arise. While industry data for non-accruals has been mixed in recent quarters, OCSL's non-accruals are down approximately 280 basis points from its peak in March of 2025. Our work is not complete, yet our progress reflects an active, hands-on approach to challenged credits. We have successfully pursued monetizations, restructured investments, and when necessary, made difficult decisions to exit positions to avoid tying up capital and to minimize losses. The second concern is the use of leverage. The statutory debt-to-equity limit for BDCs is 2:1. And essentially all BDCs operate under that limit today. Our concern is not the level of leverage at BDCs, which by historical standards and compared to other levered vehicles is relatively modest, but how leverage is used. At Oaktree, we view leverage as an output of the investment environment, not as a way to achieve a particular earnings or dividend target. When we find compelling investments with appropriate downside protection, we are prepared to deploy capital and allow leverage to increase. When the opportunity set is less attractive, we are comfortable maintaining greater liquidity and operating at lower leverage. At quarter end, OCSL's net leverage was 1.02x, positioning us below the midpoint of our target range and preserving capacity to invest as opportunities emerge. The next risk and the source of continued headlines this quarter is liquidity or asset liability mismatches in non-traded BDCs. Redemption requests at several large non-traded vehicles remained elevated during the June quarter, in some cases reaching the mid to high teens as a percentage of equity. This highlights the potential mismatch between the liquidity expectations of investors in non-traded BDCs and the less liquid profiles of the underlying private credit assets. We expect it may take several quarters for existing redemption queues to normalize and for net flows in non-traded BDCs to inflect positive. As a reminder, OCSL is a permanent capital vehicle and does not face redemption risk. Against this backdrop, we view headwinds in the non-traded BDC market as a net positive for permanent capital public BDCs with dry powder. Net outflows from non-traded BDCs reduce competition for new investments, and it may create opportunities in the form of secondary portfolio purchases and industry consolidation, which we are positioned to evaluate. The final and perhaps most debated risk is software exposure and related refinancing risk. Investors across credit and equity markets have spent considerable time analyzing software and potential AI disruption. As investors dig in, they're beginning to discern between the riskiest businesses and those with more defensible business models. Software is not a monolithic category, and AI exposure is not evenly distributed. The greatest risk is likely concentrated where business model disruption intersects with high leverage, limited free cash flow, and a near or medium-term refinancing need. Many loans originated in 2020 and 2021 were underwritten when base rates were near 0, valuation multiples were at peak levels, and the implications of AI were not yet apparent. A meaningful portion of that cohort, especially ARR-based loans, will mature in 2027 and 2028. Refinancing those investments will be an important test for the market. The outcomes will be issuer-specific and active portfolio management will remain essential. These direct lending issues will take multiple quarters and in some cases years to play out. No one could predict precisely how they will materialize. Our focus remains on the factors we can control: disciplined underwriting, portfolio management, and balance sheet flexibility. The current risk environment does not mean that investors should avoid private credit. Rather, it means lenders should be discerning and demand greater downside protection. There are several ways the market could evolve from here. If geopolitical uncertainty diminishes or the macroeconomic outlook improves, sponsors may become more willing to transact. A recovery in M&A and private equity exits could increase demand for financing at a time when the supply of direct lending capital has become more disciplined. That would be a positive outcome for direct lending deal flow and spreads. On the other hand, if transaction activity remains limited, while capital continues to flow into private credit, even if at a slower pace, we may see further spread tightening. The outlook for interest rates has also evolved over the year. Persistent inflation has reduced confidence in the pace of future rate cuts and increased the possibility that base rates will remain higher for longer. While higher rates support higher income from floating rate loans, they also increase interest burdens for borrowers. Interest coverage continues to be a metric we monitor closely. This uncertainty is why we are focused on what we can control, especially maintaining a nimble balance sheet. It also brings us back to the importance of the broader Oaktree and Brookfield platform. In an environment where traditional sponsor-backed middle market activity remains subdued, the ability to source beyond U.S. sponsor-backed direct lending becomes increasingly valuable. Across the combined platform, we are evaluating opportunities in direct lending, asset-backed finance, liquid credit, situational lending, non-U.S. direct lending, and secondary transactions. We can compare relative value across those markets and allocate capital where we believe the risk-adjusted return is compelling. With that, I'll turn the call over to Raghav for a review of our portfolio and investment activity.