Armen Panossian
Management
We're not epidemiologists so we can't really forecast that with any level of certainty. It's a few things. First of all, some businesses were already challenged heading into COVID. COVID didn't help them. And so there's a fair part of the publicly traded market that meets that type of description. So we were cautious about it before COVID. We're even more cautious about it after COVID. With the rally in loan and bond prices in the markets it doesn't help the situation. There are other situations where if the market continues to do what it's doing, which is to focus on liquidity over solvency, we could get into a situation in the two quarters, four quarters from now where a company XYZ, that tap the public markets or even the private markets for a rescue loan levered up, but then the business model changed as a result of COVID or the business model has been delayed as a result of COVID. And therefore, in two quarters, four quarters, maybe six quarters, you look at the capital structure and you say, I don't know that this company is actually worth the debt. So even though the liquidity is fine, the solvency and valuation picture is not fine. And we're mindful of that. We're mindful. When you look at the value of companies or the value, or the trade, or the fairness of trading values are really three things you look at. One is the fundamental performance of the business. The second is valuation, or whether that's fair or not in a historical context. And the third are the technicals in the market. And I would say the technicals in the market are so strong right now that they're leading into a condition where the valuation, if you look forward 12 months, in some instances, is inappropriate. So that's why we don't want to get into a situation where we're lending, for example, pari passu with the company's existing first lien instruments. But in combination with the new loan that they're seeking to issue that the company in its new business model post COVID, whatever that may mean, in some cases, in tech or life sciences, it's been accelerated to the positive. So in most cases it's fine. But in other situations, it could be true that the company has a muted path forward in terms of its cash flow projections. And you might see yourself in a situation where the business is no longer worth the debt within a reasonable time frame. So for example, a very easy example there would be cruise lines and airlines. I'm not saying cruise lines and airlines will never come back, but it's going to take a very long time for cruise lines and airlines to return to any semblance of what they were like in 2019. And business travel is going to be lower for longer, travel on an airline or a cruise line for just vacationing is going to take some time to come back. So it's easy to say, wow, these companies have a lot of assets, let's go lend against that and provide them liquidity. But you have to think about within a reasonable time frame what are the cash flow is going to be and are they reasonable from a valuation perspective or not.