Christopher Maher
Management
Yeah. A couple of things. I mean, the -- let me say, I would draw a distinction on is what we're calling internally referred to as the iceberg issue. And the iceberg issue is this, because of the CARES Act, it was perfectly appropriate. You can restructure loans and not designate them as TDRs and all that. It makes it very difficult to understand the residual credit risk that's in any of our books. That was what kind of drove us to make sure we were disclosing that very high level, 97.1% of loans that are paying on their pre-COVID terms. So, we've not given them any concessions. They're not getting any special deals. So, we really do feel that we've got a very strong assessment of where our credit risk is. If you look at last quarter, fourth quarter -- I'm sorry -- most of the charge-offs were related to the sale of the residual forbearance residential loans. So as we finished the consumer residential forbearance periods, we identified the high-risk stuff, and we sold that off. If you take that out, the net charge-offs were actually extraordinarily low. So as we go into 2021, the other comment I'd make about kind of credit is that the forecast that we used that were put together in the fourth quarter, did not account for the change in the makeup of the Senate and the potential for additional fiscal stimulus, which could be material. So, as CECL works, those economic factors are big leverage and it's possible that that would be a tailwind going forward. And then even if you look within our reserve, we still have -- a significant amount of our reserve is qualitative, not quantitative. So, your first -- you kind of questioned about profitability metrics and where we're going. We're not -- the pandemic's not over. We still have to work through the special mention substandard books, but we feel we've got a very strong handle on them. In fact, in that book, 84% of that book is paid current. So these are not people that are having a payment issues. I think that's the first component, what is going to overshadow profitability in terms of provision requirements as we go forward. So, we're feeling like that's not going to be an overhang. It's going to hold us back. The set -- the real second component is what happens with the yield curve as we deploy this cash. And initially this is not unusual. Even though we saw the yield curve start at the long end, start to move up, loan rates had not really budged, right? So competitive loan rates of the markets were not moving. We think that the glide path that we're talking about in margin is it could be accomplished in the current interest rate environment. If you get any significant movement in the yield curve, it could be far better. So, in that environment, we think we can build our earnings back to more than a one ROA, and given our leverage position, we think that's -- there'll be a pretty good return on equity.