Matt McGraner
Analyst · Truist Securities
Thank you, Brian. Let me start by going over our fourth quarter same-store operational results. Q4 same-store NOI margin improved to 61.6%. That's up 46 basis points over the prior year period. Effective rents showed 11.5% or greater growth in all markets, while same-store average effective rent growth reached 11.5%. Raleigh, Charlotte, Las Vegas and Atlanta showed somewhat more modest rent growth in the 11.6% to 13.2% range, while we saw stronger year-over-year growth in Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville and our Florida markets with average effective rent growth in these markets achieving a combined 19.7%. Tampa was our effective rent growth leader for the quarter at 23.3%. Fourth quarter same-store NOI growth was again outstanding, with the portfolio averaging 14.4%, driven by 13.8% growth in rental revenue and 13.5% growth in total revenues, even though we experienced expense inflation across the board. Operationally, leasing activity and revenue growth showed sustained momentum in the fourth quarter, with 9 out of our 10 same-store markets achieving revenue growth of 8.2% or better. The top 5 being Tampa at 18.8%, South Florida at 17.6%, Atlanta, 16.2%; Phoenix, 14.9% and Nashville, 14.4%. Renewal conversions were 47% for the quarter, 49.6% for the year, with 7 out of 11 markets executing renewal rate growth of at least 5% and no markets were under 2. The leaders were Tampa at 10.1, Orlando at 9.9, South Florida 8.8. DFW 8.3 and Raleigh derm at 7.6. On the occupancy front, we're pleased to report that Q4 same-store occupancy remained over 94%, positioning us well for 2023. And as of this morning, the portfolio is 96.3% leased with a healthy 60-day trend of 92%. For the full year, same-store NOI margin improved by 112 basis points to 60%. Same-store average effective rents and revenues each increased by 17.9% and 14%, respectively and NOI held strong across most of the portfolio in '22, with 8 out of our 9 same-store markets growing by at least 11.2%. Notable same-store NOI growth markets were South Florida, Nashville and Tampa at 23.8%, 21.2% and 20.4%, respectively. Operationally, the portfolio experienced exceptional revenue growth in '22, with all our markets achieving growth of at least 8% or better. The top 5 were Tampa at 18.4%; South Florida, 16.8%; Nashville at 15.9%; Phoenix at 15 4%; and Orlando at 14.7%. Turning to our acquisition activity for 2022. On the buy-side, we acquired 2 assets in April last year, the Idera and Sandy Springs, Georgia and estates on Maryland and Phoenix, Arizona. These purchases added 562 units to our portfolio for a total purchase price of $143.4 million and provided a further opportunity for our rehab pipeline in 2 of our best-performing markets, further enhancing our next 4 years of growth and earnings profile. On the disposition front, as Brian said, we sold Hollister on December 30 of last year, generating a 13.5% levered IRR, a 2x multiple on investment and approximately $21 million of net proceeds used to pay down the balance on the credit facility. And as previously reported as Brian just mentioned, we're under contract to sold Old Farm and Stone Creek for $135 million. These sales will generate a 24.8% levered IRR, a 2.9% multiple on investment and proceeds of $63.4 million to pay the remaining balance on this credit facility down to zero. Turning to 2023 guidance. As Brian said, we're excited to guide to 9% to 13% in same-store with a midpoint of 11%. Across our same-store properties, we're forecasting a 10.5% to 12.6% rental income growth comprised of the following components: a 93.5% to 95.1% physical occupancy, with peak occupancy model for Q3 and Q4; a 5.9% earn-in benefit from the outstanding growth in trade-outs we achieved in 2022; a 4% to 5% market rent growth in 2023 with 2.3% realized this year; and an additional 1.4% top line growth attributable to value-add CapEx spending. This equates to 9.9% to 11.9% total revenue growth. On the expense side, we're forecasting a 7.5% increase in controllable expenses comprised of a 3.8% increase in R&M and turnover costs, a 10.7% increase in labor, a 3.9% increase in advertising, a 4.9% increase in G&A. And for non-controllables, we're forecasting an increase of 10.3% to 11.2%, comprised of a 3.2% increase in utilities, a 17.7% increase in insurance and a 12.1% increase in real estate taxes. From a geographical perspective, we're experiencing -- we're expecting particular strength across the following markets: notwithstanding real estate tax headwinds in most of them. We expect Raleigh to grow same-store NOI by 16.5% to 18.5% due to 13% to 15% budgeted revenue growth and an interior renovation plan for 132 units, targeting $240 rent premiums and a low 20s ROI. We expect South Florida to grow same-store NOI by roughly 16% to 18%, driven by 12% to 14% budgeted revenue growth and a continued value-add execution with 242 full interior unit upgrades planned targeting $260 rent premiums and a mid- to high teens ROI. We expect Tampa to grow same-store NOI by roughly 15.5% to 17.5%, driven by 13% to 15% budgeted revenue growth, a continued value-add execution with 112 full and partial interior unit upgrades planned targeting $62 rent premiums here in the low 30s ROI on predominantly lower spin partial rental. We expect Orlando to grow same-store NOI by roughly 15% to 17%, driven by 13% to 15% budgeted revenue growth and a continued value-add execution with 107 upgrades planned average, $215 average rent premium and a 20% ROI. And finally, we expect Las Vegas to grow same-store NOI by roughly 14% to 16%, driven by 11% to 13% budgeted revenue growth, a continued value-add execution on 162 unit upgrades planned, generating $140 average rent premium in the high-teen ROI. All of our other markets are expected to see NOI growth between 7.5% to 11.5% and we see the same economic tailwinds described in our top-performing markets. As you know, we continue to be an internal growth business at our core. And to that end, our guidance includes the following assumptions regarding our value-add programs. We expect to complete 1,370 full interior upgrades at an average cost of $13,150 per unit, generating $214 average monthly premium or approximately a 19.5% return on investment. We expect to complete 871 partial and 2-year upgrades at an average cost of $5,250 per unit, generating a $91 average monthly premium or 18.6% ROI. We expect to complete 844 washer dryer installs at an average cost of $1,030 per unit, generating a $51 average monthly premium or 47% return on investment. We expect to complete 3,150 additional Smart Home Technology packages generating a $40 to $45 average monthly premium and a 48.8% return on investment. Now for a brief overview of our 2023 acquisition and disposition guidance. We're assuming 0 to over $250 million in acquisitions. Obviously, is widely reported with institutional capital largely remaining on the sidelines. There's not been many attractive buying opportunities. Plus given our cost of capital, we've prioritized balance sheet cleanup, stock repurchases and internal growth over external growth pursuits. On the disposition front, that we said a few times here, with the Houston market exit well on its way. again, we expect to complete the disposition of Old Farm and Stone Creek for $135 million of gross proceeds in early Q2. Disposition activity could reach the higher end of our range later in the year, if we're able to identify assets that can be accretively added via a tax-efficient capital recycling strategy that you guys have seen us do over the past few years. As Brian mentioned, we remain transparent on our NAV. We have adjusted NAV downward to a midpoint of $72.83 per share. That's using a 5.15% cap rate on 2023 NOI at the midpoint. So in closing, so far in 2023, we're off to a good start. We are expecting to see continued strength and resilience in the middle market rental housing. And as we enter this year, we're optimistic that 2023 will be another year of strong performance. We feel we're positioned to both withstand a downturn and yet still poised to grow. That's all I have for prepared remarks. I appreciate our team to work here at NexPoint and BH for the execution.