Susan Panuccio
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Robert. Before I review the results, I wanted to highlight a few things from this quarter. We continue to take steps to stabilize News and Information Services. We are seeing strong growth in digital paid sales while balancing that with ongoing cost efficiencies, including industry solutions. There's still plenty of work to do, but I'm pleased with our progress in the start to the fiscal year. Our revenue mix within the segment is also improving with advertising now making up less than 50% of revenue. In Digital Real Estate Services, we completed the acquisition of Opcity to Move last month for approximately $210 million, including certain deferred payments and stock bonds. As Robert mentioned, this is a leading best-in-breed real estate tech platform that expands realtor.com's offerings to include a success-based concierge model for prequalified transaction-ready leads. Realtor has made significant progress and remains an area we continue to believe is important to both capital reinvestment and to value creation. We are making progress at Foxtel. The team is working hard on the launch of its sports-only OTT product while making significant improvements to our core broadcast offerings. We have restructured the management team, adding key expertise and that team is now heavily focused on further improvements to reinvigorate the new Foxtel. The performance of HarperCollins this quarter again underscores the value of premium content and global scale, posting another quarter of robust EBITDA growth despite more challenging prior year comparables. With that, I would now like to discuss our financial results in more detail. We reported fiscal 2019 first quarter total revenues of over $2.5 billion, up 23% versus the prior year, which reflects the impact of the consolidation of Foxtel. On an adjusted basis, which excludes the impact of the Foxtel consolidation, unfavorable currency impact and the other items disclosed in our release, revenues grew 4%. Reported total segment EBITDA was $358 million, up 44% versus the prior year. As a reminder, last year included a benefit of $46 million from the reversal of accrued net liabilities relating to certain employment taxes in the U.K. Whilst this year, our results include the consolidation of Foxtel and a $48 million benefit from Tabcorp related to the exit of the partnership for Sun Bets in the U.K. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, which excludes the Foxtel impact and other items as disclosed in the press release, rose 37%. For the quarter, earnings per share were $0.17 as compared to $0.12 in the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share were also $0.17 in the quarter versus $0.07 in the prior year. Turning now to the individual operating segments. In News and Information Services, revenues for the quarter were $1.2 billion, up 1% versus the prior year. The quarter included the settlement payment to Sun Bets but also a $28 million negative impact related to currency. Within the segment, reported revenues at Dow Jones rose 3%; News UK rose 12%; News Australia declined 7%; and News America Marketing fell 6%. More details will be disclosed in the 10-Q tomorrow. Moving on to the segment highlights. Advertising revenues accounted for 46% of segment revenues and were down 7% versus the prior year with approximately $15 million or 1/3 of the decline due to currency fluctuations. Across our portfolio, advertising trends were mixed. While print advertising trends remain under pressure, we saw improvements at Dow Jones combined with continued healthy digital advertising growth in Australia and the U.K. At Dow Jones, advertising revenues were relatively flat with the prior year, excluding the impact of the closure of the Wall Street International print editions in the second quarter of fiscal 2018. It is worth highlighting that this was the best advertising performance by Dow Jones in recent quarters. At News Australia, advertising declined 11% or down just 4% in local currency, a slight improvement versus the fourth quarter rate. The decrease was due to ongoing weakness in the print advertising market, which was partially offset by digital advertising growth notably at news.com.au. News UK was weaker this quarter with advertising down 10% versus the prior year in both reported and local currency due mostly to softer print trends at The Sun. News America Marketing fell 6% due to weak home-delivered revenues, which include free-standing inserts, partially offset by modest domestic in-store revenue growth and improving digital revenues. This quarter, domestic in-store was the biggest contributor to revenues within News America Marketing. Turning now to circulation and subscription revenues, which accounted for 42% of segment revenues. We saw an increase of 2%, with foreign currency negatively impacting these revenues by $10 million or 1%. We are continuing to see healthy digital subscriber growth, which is helping to underpin our improved performance. At Dow Jones, circulation revenues grew 7%. And at The Wall Street Journal they grew 9%, benefiting from strong growth in its digital-only subscribers, which were up 20% year-over-year. We raised subscription prices this quarter ranging from $2 to $6 per month, which will be phased in to existing members throughout the year. In addition, we again saw healthy year-over-year digital subscription growth at The Times and The Sunday Times, up 24% to 263,000 and also at News Australia up 18% to over 442,000. In the U.K. and Australia, cover price increases and rising digital sales mostly offset print volume decline. The segment is continuing to transition to digital with total digital revenues up to 33% of revenues from 27% in the prior year, partially due to the payment related to Sun Bets in the U.K. For Dow Jones and our mastheads, digital revenues were 37%. Turning to segment EBITDA. News and Information Services segment EBITDA was $116 million, up 57%, which included higher contributions from Dow Jones and News Australia, along with the onetime impact at News UK. At Book Publishing, we posted another very solid quarter, driven by strong frontlist and backlist performances, as Robert mentioned, notably in the U.S., which exceeded our expectations. Revenues for the quarter increased approximately 4% to $418 million and segment EBITDA increased 42% to $68 million. Overall, the backlist contributed approximately 55% of consumer revenues in the quarter. Total digital revenues for the quarter grew 12%, consistent with the previous quarter and represented 22% of consumer revenues, up from 21% last year. Digital audio continues to drive robust results, up over 50% and accounting for over 30% of digital revenues. At the Digital Real Estate Services segment, revenues increased 8% to $293 million, partially impacted by unfavorable foreign exchange. REA Group revenues grew 9% or 18% in local currency due to strong residential debt revenue growth in Australia, including high penetration for premier or an increased yield, the expansion of financial services and modest contribution from the Home Track acquisition. Revenue growth was partially impacted by a 3% decline in listing volume. Please refer to REA's earnings release and their conference call, which just concluded, for additional detail. Move revenues rose 10% to $118 million versus the prior year, driven by the continued growth of its Connections for Buyers product. As Robert noted, real estate revenues, which include listing and lead-based product and accounts for approximately 75% of revenues, grew 19% this quarter. This was partially offset by reduced display advertising as part of a broader initiative to enhance the user experience and drive engagement and listing. Early results have been promising with Connections for Buyers' lead volume growth rates improving versus the fourth quarter while continuing to maintain higher yield per customer. Average monthly unique users at realtor.com were approximately 60 million for the quarter, rising 9% versus the prior year. Reported segment EBITDA was up 11% to $105 million. And on an adjusted basis, EBITDA grew 16%. The team at realtor are focused on the integration and operation of Opcity, which closed on the 11th of October. Expanding broker and agent adoption, improving lead volume and using data machine learning to improve conversion rates will be a key focus. We will be managing the transition of leads from Connections for Buyers to Opcity, pending customer demand. Finally, it is important to note that Opcity is a referral model and we recognize revenues on transaction closing. Turning to the Subscription Video Services segment, which as you may recall, includes new Foxtel and Sky News. Revenues were $565 million versus the reported $145 million a year ago. Segment EBITDA in the quarter was $113 million versus $27 million in the prior year. On a pro forma basis, reflecting the Foxtel transaction, revenues in the quarter declined 17% compared to revenues of $680 million in the prior year, with foreign currency impacting revenues by $45 million or 7% of the decline. Operationally, the revenue decline was driven by lower subscription revenues; including a mix shift to lower-priced packages; lower advertising revenue; and a difficult year-on-year comparison in pay-per-view, which last year included the Macgregor-Mayweather fight. In addition, the adoption of the new revenue recognition standard reduced revenues by $4 million. It is also worth noting that the revenue trends for TV subscriptions, which make up the bulk of the revenues, were relatively stable with the fourth quarter. On a pro forma basis, segment EBITDA declined 27% compared to the $154 million in the prior year. The year-over-year decline reflects the lower revenues, partially offset by a 19% decrease in operating expenses, which includes lower nonsports programming costs and a $6 million benefit related to the adoption of the new revenue recognition standard. On operating metrics, Foxtel's total closing subscribers were over 2.9 million as of September 30, which is up versus the prior year, driven by Foxtel Now subscriptions and the inclusion of commercial subscribers from Fox Sports Australia, offset by lower broadcast subscribers and the closure and wind-down of T-Box and Optus subscription. In the first quarter, broadcast churn was 12.9% versus 12.7% in the prior year. ARPU was AUD 76, down about 6%. However, excluding the new revenue standard, ARPU would have been about AUD 2 higher per month and down about 4% versus the prior year, similar to recent trends. The next 12 months will see the new Foxtel business focusing on three key priorities: firstly to stabilize and revitalize the poor broadcast business, which today accounts for the majority of the revenues and EBITDA. This will be done by improving the content offering and the great marketing presence. Product improvements introduced include the new iQ4 set-top box, Foxtel 4K, Fox Cricket, Foxtel Go, Fox Flicks and Fox Showcase. We believe premium sports is a large competitive advantage and having the recently acquired domestic cricket rights and a dedicated network should help improve churn, significantly enhance our spring and summer schedule and drive subscription growth. The team will also focus on: expanding our penetration of next-generation boxes, which is a much better user experience and accounted over 10% increase in build ARPU per month; double the pay-per-view buy rates; and higher retention. Currently about 35% of customers have either the iQ3 or iQ4. So far, the reaction in the market to the iQ4 has been very positive, and upgrades are trending above initial expectations, delivering over 47,000 upgrades in the first quarter. Finally, the Foxtel team has been upgrading the customer service function, and this team will be focused on improving save rates and better optimizing offers. The second key priority within the segment is to launch multiple OTT offerings in order to provide new revenue streams for the company aimed at maximizing reach and leveraging our rights over a large base. We are building state-of-the-art customer-centric platforms with selling, streaming and billing to provide a seamless customer experience. The first product launch on the new platform will be the sports-only product. We expect, as Robert mentioned, a soft beta launch for web-only access imminently and plan to expand to iOS and Android and other connected devices soon thereafter. The third key priority will be focused on cost initiative to create room for growth, which include the migration of cable onto a pure satellite IP network and a wider focus on overhead costs. I would now like to mention a few things for the fiscal second quarter. At News and Information Services, we remain focused on digital subscriber growth and seeking cost efficiencies as the advertising market remains challenged. I'll also remind you that News UK received a onetime benefit relating to Sun Bets in the first quarter. In Subscription Video services, we will launch our sports OTT product and begin to amortize the Cricket Australia rights. Rights and production costs related to Cricket should be around $25 million to $30 million for the second quarter. In Book Publishing, overall trends remain favorable with digital contribution rising modestly. As Robert mentioned, we're very excited by the upcoming release of Joanna Gaines' Homebody in November. We also have Mitch Albom's The Next Person You Meet in Heaven; and Justin Timberlake's Hindsight & All The Things I Can't See in Front of Me, in addition to strong backlist sales. At Digital Real Estate Services, we will begin reporting the Opcity acquisition, which should drive higher revenue growth, although we will have about $3 million per quarter in costs relating to the deferred payments and equity grant. With that, let me hand it over to the operator for Q&A.