Earnings Labs

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 4, 2008

$53.03

-0.52%

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Transcript

David H. Anderson

Management

As reported last quarter, and for the first time in many years, we have been experiencing gas cost losses from our PGA incentive sharing mechanism here in Oregon. Weather for the winter months, or for the first part of the second quarter, was colder than average. Colder weather depletes our storage inventories at rates faster than planned. In addition, prices for natural gas, like oil, were high and above amounts set in last year’s PGA until later in the third quarter. Over the past nearly 20 years that the Oregon PGA incentive sharing mechanism has been in place, our hedge positions have fluctuated. Over the past couple of years our total hedge position averages approximately 75% of expected purchases in a normal weather year. Over the life of the mechanism, hedge positions have been as high as 90%. Our year-to-date results reflect commodity cost losses of $7.5 million, or $0.17 per share, of which $1.8 million, or approximately $0.04 per share was reported in the third quarter. This compares to record gains of $10.8 million, or $0.24 per share last year in the year-to-date period. In Washington, all gas costs are passed through to customers. Mark mentioned earlier that the Oregon Commission issued an order modifying the PGA cost sharing mechanism for gas utilities that operate in Oregon. I would like to provide some additional color around those changes. Under the prior mechanism, we collected an amount for purchase gas costs based on estimates included in rates. If the actual purchase gas costs differed from the estimated amounts included in rates, then the company was required to defer that difference and pass it on to customers as an adjustment to future rates. As part of an incentive mechanism, the company historically deferred 67% of the difference such that the impact…

Mark S. Dodson

Management

Thanks, David. To say the end of the quarter was busy is an understatement. As you have just heard, we completed several important regulatory initiatives, maintained our focus on cost control, and continued to see steady customer growth and solid results in our storage business, and we continue to move forward on our new business development efforts. In late July, we filed a permit application with the California Public Utility Commission for the Gill Ranch storage project planned near Fresno, California that we are developing with Pacific Gas & Electric. Our plan is to have all the necessary permits for the 20 billion-cubic foot gas storage project by the end of 2009 and to start storage operations before the end of 2010. We are also moving ahead with the first phase of the Palomar pipeline and partnership with GTM. We continue to gather route information and to complete our FERC application and expect to submit it by the end of this year. We also continue to educate local governments and communities on their need for Palomar and provide education about the safety and environmental regulations to be followed. As you may have heard, NorthernStar natural Gas recently received their FERC certificate for the Bradwood Landing LNG terminal site located on the Columbia River. Though it is too early to tell whether or not Bradwood or one of the other proposed LNG terminals will be built in Oregon, we continue to participate in ongoing public discussions. A statewide poll conducted over the summer by Moore Information showed 54% favored building liquid natural gas terminals in Oregon. In this same poll it appears there is even greater support for natural gas pipelines, with 60% in favor of building a pipeline across Oregon to supply the state and the region with natural gas.…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions.) Our first question comes from Daniel Fidell of Brean Murray. Mr. Fidell? Daniel Fidell – Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: Good morning, guys.

Mark S. Dodson

Management

Good morning, Dan.

David H. Anderson

Management

Good morning. Daniel Fidell – Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: First, Mark, congratulations on just an outstanding run as CEO. You definitely moved NWN into the upper tier of gas utilities and we certainly appreciate all of your help over the years.

Mark S. Dodson

Management

Thanks, Dan. That is very kind of you. Daniel Fidell – Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: Maybe just a quick question on the quarter, specifically on the gas costs. Thanks for going into the level of detail, David, on this. I just want to understand, you said that this new gas cost change improves the functionality, and I just want to understand. This essentially reduces the earnings swings; is that correct? Not $0.17 down or $0.24 up in a given year but more normalized, say $0.05 or $0.10 in either direction; is that – am I thinking about this right?

David H. Anderson

Management

You are. I mean, obviously there is two things to factor in when you look at the volatility of earnings from this mechanism. One is what the hedge position the company is going into the year, and then secondarily, what the sharing mechanism does on top of that. And as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we are probably going to stay in the 75% overall hedge level of the company, but you have 25% of your purchases out there that are technically at risk, and when you apply this 80/20 factor that we have chosen this year, or even in a future year that might be 90/10/. There is a very small number of volumes; probably less than 5 million decatherms per year that you would consider that would have opportunity for gains or risks of loss, and so I would translate that into what you concluded, is that I would – that I believe that earnings volatility will be much less than what it has been in the previous years. And that was, quite frankly, our main focus in this proceeding, and I think it was also the focus of the Oregon PUC Commissioners, is to better balance the risk/reward relationship between the customer and shareholder. And I think what they proposed, and we have all agreed to, accomplishes that fact. It was a long-winded answer to say yes. Daniel Fidell – Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: Okay, I appreciate that. I guess I know you guys have not given 2009 earnings guidance, but just directionally, if this is a narrowed level of volatility then we can assume a base level of earnings, somewhere above the $2.48 to $2.63 guidance that you have given for ’08; is that correct?

David H. Anderson

Management

Yes, we are not ready to give guidance yet, but I mean obviously we are still – both Gregg and I are very focused on trying to produce 5% or greater earnings per share per year, and obviously this year I am very pleased that we are still within the guidance range after reporting $7 million of losses. I am real proud of this management team and what they have done to manage costs to make that happen. With that out, we will come out with guidance early next year, but I do think obviously some macro issues that everybody needs to take into account is obviously customer growth is slower. We will take that into account, but I also think with where gas prices are right now, and I think by us selecting 80/20, I think we are – assuming things do not change there, which they obviously do, that should be a positive impact on next year’s results. Daniel Fidell – Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: Great. And then maybe one last question on this and I will let someone else ask a question. On the (inaudible) case settlement in Washington State, you talk about the potential for participating in the decoupling in the future following the Avistas pilot. Can you give us a little bit of a timeframe of when that pilot will be reviewed and how you would have to ask for that? Would that have to be a general rate case filing or could that be just a one-off filing?

David H. Anderson

Management

Let me – Alex Miller is sitting right next to me so he will reign me in if I am wrong, but I the Avista in March; is that correct? And then we have got the rate case behind us right now so we do not have to have our numbers scrubbed or anything else. I think we can come in and file for decoupling in Washington, but I think it is a good idea to kind of let the concept prove itself. I have a lot of confidence in Avista and Scott Morris and his team, and I think ultimately they will see in Washington the benefits of decoupling just as we have seen it here in Oregon. Am I correct?

Alex Miller

Analyst · Brean Murray

Absolutely. Daniel Fidell – Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: Thanks for your comments today, guys, and congrats again, Mark, on a great run.

Mark S. Dodson

Management

Thanks, Dan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg McGowan at Sidoti & Company. Gregory McGowan – Sidoti & Company, LLC: Hi, good morning, everybody.

Mark S. Dodson

Management

Good morning. Gregory McGowan – Sidoti & Company, LLC: Can you give some comments around Senate Bill 408, the effect of that on a year-to-date basis and how that affects you going into 2009?

David H. Anderson

Management

Yes, this is David. I mean, when we implemented Senate Bill 408 last year, obviously it took into account the full-year effect last year and then also the previous year, so when we were over $6 million that we booked in terms of Senate Bill 408 gains, that was directly tied to the results of the previous period. I think on a normalized basis, and I think if you were to look where normalized this year would have been, you are probably, for this company, going to be between a million and $2 million of gains. I am excluding things like what happens with WACOG, whether it is up or down. Gregory McGowan – Sidoti & Company, LLC: Right.

David H. Anderson

Management

In terms of where we are, in terms of where our margin from customer growth is, and making the assumption that this management team can continue to control costs, which I do believe that they can. So I think on a run basis, I do not think you are ever going to see huge numbers out of Senate Bill 408, but our intent is to put plans together to hopefully produce those numbers. Obviously if you have WACOG gains that are – if you have WACOG gains, that would increase the Senate Bill 408 effect. If you have losses then it decreases the overall Senate Bill 408 effect. So is that where you are going? Gregory McGowan – Sidoti & Company, LLC: Yes. Yes, it was. And I guess the other question would be if you are keeping the guidance between $2.40 to $2.63, but given the third quarter results, assuming the fourth quarter has no effect from weather and no effect from the WACOG, it looks to me that earnings would probably come in at the lower end of that range; is that kind of accurate?

David H. Anderson

Management

Yes, I typically do not comment on where we are going to be at the range. I do – you know, some of the material that Bob does give you in the earnings packet includes the 12-month ended information, which I think is a good proxy to kind of forecast where the company is going to be for the year, obviously this late. And as you see in the 12-month ended material, we are about $2.48 per share, which is at the lower end of the range. I think you then have to factor in what happened in the fourth quarter last year and what is going to happen in the fourth quarter this year. And I will remind you, fourth quarter last year had a tremendous amount of strategic spends in it that will not reoccur this year, and then I think also with where gas prices are right now compared to where gas prices are set in our PGA, I would hope that we would be able to book some gains in the November and December time period. So I am cautiously optimistic we will do better than what you are assuming. Gregory McGowan – Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay, so we could probably – O&M will probably be – O&M was kind of inflated in last year’s fourth quarter.

David H. Anderson

Management

If you look at the year-to-date numbers last year, Greg, through September, we had about $1.1 million of that strategic spend that was unique for the period, and we spent about $5 million for the total year, so you can see the impacts in the fourth quarter from that delta. Gregory McGowan – Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions.)

Mark S. Dodson

Management

It sounds like a busy day today. We really appreciate you joining us and we look forward to a new team, and I do not think we are going to miss a beat. Thanks again.

David H. Anderson

Management

Get out and vote.

Mark S. Dodson

Management

Thank you, everybody.

David H. Anderson

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Alright, that concludes today’s conference. Thank you for attending.