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Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 29, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please stand by. Good morning, and welcome to the Newell Rubbermaid Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After a brief discussion by management, we will open up the call for questions. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. A live webcast of this call is available at newellrubbermaid.com on the Investor Relations home page under Events and Presentations. A slide presentation is also available for download. I will now turn the call over to Nancy O'Donnell, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. O'Donnell, you may begin.

Nancy O'Donnell - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining Newell's Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. Before we begin, please take note of Newell's cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements and our most recent SEC filings and in the 8-K that we filed with our press release this morning. Such forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, and actual results could differ materially from management's predictions. Newell undertakes no obligation to update any statements made today. Let me also remind you that on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please note that Newell has provided reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, in our current 8-K and on our website. Our presenters today are Mike Polk, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stipancich, our Chief Financial Officer. And I'll now turn the call over to Mike. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Nancy. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. We delivered another strong quarter of results and have terrific momentum on our business. In that context, this morning, we reaffirmed the 2016 full year guidance we provided on our last earnings call. Before we get into the results, let me comment on three strategic initiatives. First, in late October, we completed the acquisition of Elmer's Products. Elmer's, Krazy Glue and X-ACTO represent terrific additions to our great portfolio, and will provide dry period synergies at back to school, great cross-sell potential across our channels, and together with our very fast growing Prismacolor, Paper Mate Flair and Mr. Sketch brands, strengthen our position in drawing and crafts. Elmer's sales will not contribute to core sales until the first anniversary of the completion of the acquisition. This morning, we shared our decision to deconsolidate Venezuela. We took this…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from Chris Ferrara with Wells Fargo.

Christopher Ferrara - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Chris.

Christopher Ferrara - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey. Mike, I guess on the top line, right, obviously, the 4.4% pace you guys did this quarter, excluding Venezuela is strong, right, and it's in a tough environment. Your guide – and you talked a little bit about it, but your guide is 4% to 5% for next year. But if the comps get a little bit tougher – obviously, we talked about Brazil and China a little bit, but can you just go through your confidence for maintaining that growth rate in a tougher environment on tougher comps? And I know part of it is the increase in A&P, but if you can go through that a little bit and express it, that would be great. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, well, it's the combination of the increase in spending, Chris, but also we've got the strongest innovation plan we've had since I've been here. If you remember, we changed our whole model back in the middle of 2013, and I've said that the gestation period on new ideas that were coming through our brand development organization was 18 months to 24 months. And the way these projects work is they sort of layer into the market. And so as we progress through 2016 and into 2017, we've got some of the strongest innovation ideas we've really ever had hitting the marketplace. An example of that is in the first quarter, we'll launch new PaperMate InkJoy Gels with three times faster drying ink versus the leading gel pen for an advantaged performance. Less smearing. We'll launch Rubbermaid FRESHWORKS, which leverages our food storage business but applies a filtration, a membrane, to prevent oxidation from occurring on fresh fruits and vegetables, which should extend the produce life by – we expect to extend the produce life by nearly 80%. So you've got a whole series of innovations. John mentioned the SharpIN knives where Calphalon's got these ceramic sharpeners in the butcher block. So every time you withdraw the knife, you have the perfectly honed blade. And so these are the examples of the kind of innovation that has started to filter into our business in late 2015 and really hits its stride in 2016. So you've got the combination of increased spending. We've really sequentially increased spending since we've been here. We've tripled the amount of advertising we're spending on these brands. If you look at the number of GRPs we're delivering, we've actually increased it by five times since we started because we've gotten so much efficiency in buying by going to one buying agency. So we've got all of these things converging in the marketplace, which gives us the confidence that when coupled with what's a building selling system with respect to commercial execution and strengthened selling execution, those things all converge to give us confidence that 4% to 5% is deliverable, and Q4 is good evidence of that at 4.4% growth excluding Venezuela.

Christopher Ferrara - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

And then just I guess two quick ones. Number one, does the Jarden acquisition at all affect the timing of the planned Writing launch in China? And then you talked about financing. Do you still think that 4% is a decent way to look at financing rates or has that crept up, you think? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, let me answer the first question. The answer simply is no. But we didn't have a lot built into our plans in 2016 for China. Remember, we'll launch late in Q4 to get to market in maybe one or two big cities. The team is presenting their final plans to me shortly. But one or two big cities for back to school 2017, which is in February-ish in China. So we don't get a lot of benefit in the revenue line from China this year, but we will get some nice growth in Writing in 2017. But, no, it should not impact anything we're doing on Newell Rubbermaid. In fact, one of the most important things that both companies can do in the transition is to execute their 2016 plans flawlessly. And while there will be a lot of work going on in the center to organize the delivery of the synergies, it's really critical that each set of operating unit stays focused on the plans they've built for 2016. So I wouldn't envision really anything materially changing for either company in terms of their core plans. On financing, yeah, credit spreads have widened since we announced the deal in December. But there's all kinds of levers we can pull to mitigate that issue. And quite frankly, the interest rate sensitivity in the overall deal is the least meaningful variable as we've looked at sensitivities.…

Christopher Ferrara - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Bill Chappell with SunTrust.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust.

Thanks. Good morning. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Bill.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust.

Morning. Just the first question on SG&A in the quarter. Just trying to understand how that came in versus expectations. And when I say that, I mean typically, in the past few years, you've kind of stepped up advertising promotion in the fourth quarter just to kind of get a head start on the next year. I didn't know if that happened again. And also if there were some kind of step-up of incentive comp since you look like you outperformed kind of your core projections. John K. Stipancich - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Bill. It's John. You're absolutely correct. We did step up A&P. We made also some step-ups in strategic SG&A investment as well. So, for example, e-commerce, which has been a fantastic result for us, we're plowing more resources into. And you're right on the incentive comp. That also drove up the SG&A number in light of the strengthened performance and the good finish to the year. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Also, John, just to build on that, we also placed a marker in Q4 on shopper insights. Well, we've made a lot of progress. We've doubled the amount of insight work we've done. And actually, the size of the team's up by 50% since we started in 2011. But where we haven't done as much research is in the area of shopper insights, and – because we wanted to get the fundamental consumer insight work done to support the innovation and brand agenda. In Q4, we made the first in a series of investments we'll make in shopper insights to ensure that we're driving leading levels of category management. Joe Arcuri and his team are really focused on taking our selling capabilities sort of to the next level, bringing the best of what fast-moving consumer goods have in category management capabilities to the consumer durables space. And part of putting the fundamentals in place is establishing a good foundation of shopper insights. So we made an investment in Q4 in that as well. We had the flexibility to do that. And as you know, with the – on the Q3 call, I mentioned that if we had the room to do more, we would invest more. And that's, in fact, what we did. It's strategic investment in A&P. It's strategic investment in structural cost and e-comm and insights, coupled with, as John said, we had a really terrific year from a performance standpoint in truing up a bonus.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust.

That's – no, thanks for the color. And then just second on the Jarden transaction, is there any way you could kind of give us an idea or a rough guess on – not a guess – on how fourth quarter numbers kind of came in for them? And there's a – seems to be a bit of consternation about their organic growth, I'm assuming it was the 2% to 3% rate just with the weather being warm, but maybe some color there. And then also, Mike, as you look forward, any kind of idea of how this works in terms of number of divisions? I mean, Jarden has three divisions but kind of 25 different key divisions, and you have five. I didn't know if you have that kind of architecture of how it would break out and how you see it splitting up. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Let me first comment on your question regarding Q4. Obviously, I – we don't own Jarden, and I actually don't have access to their performance data as they – they are the ones that have to communicate that. All I would say, though, is if you looked at their numbers through the middle – through the third quarter, their organic growth year to date was 5.9%. So they have terrific momentum in their business. They have an incredibly strong year ago performance in Q4 that they need to lap, and I know – I'm sure you all know this, but their organic growth in Q4 of 2014 was 11.4%. So a big hurdle to cross. No matter what way you cut it, with 5.9% banked through the end of Q3, they're going to have a very good year. And if you look at the combination…

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust.

Perfect. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from John Faucher with JPMorgan.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Thanks. Good morning. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, John.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Good morning, Mike. Can you talk a little bit about, aside from Brazil, maybe how some of your more economically sensitive categories are doing right now? Obviously, there are some concerns in terms of discretionary exposure particularly as we look at the combination of the two businesses. So any thoughts just in terms of economic sensitivity and how that's impacting things right now? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, it's really interesting. I read a lot about it. I see – I hear a lot about it. I quoted some numbers on our U.S. POS as measured by IRI. Ten of 13 categories, increasing market share, sell-out up over 8% in nine of those 13 categories. So I've always had this point of view that ideas trump the macros, that it's our responsibility as a consumer brand company to bring ideas to market and leverage our brands with the right kind of support behind them to trump whatever environment we're in. And our growth of 4.1% in the U.S. and 8.8% in the U.S. including acquisitions should be good testimony to that. I don't see any impact in – from a consumer perspective, in the growth of our categories, where we can measure that through IRI. I just don't see an impact at this point. The only business in our portfolio that had been sensitive to this has been the industrial products and services business, where, as I said, we went from high single digit growth in 2014 to essentially slight growth in 2015. And I previously commented that, that trend began in about October of 2014. And so we see, that's probably the only piece of our portfolio that is cyclical as our businesses evolved over the last number of years. We are far less cyclical than we were when we started, and we're more consumer-driven than we were then. And we have way more brand support behind our brands such that they can absorb the macro cycles a lot better than they could in the past. But at the moment, I don't see the slowdown in markets or in the macros, and I don't see our customers really behaving in a particularly defensive way like they did in 2009 during the recession. So you don't hear us talking about the – a macro issue with the exception of Brazil where it's a combination of GDP slowdown and the currency impact on the business, and the need for us to price to protect margins, and cover the transaction forex effect and the intersection of that with a slower economy, creating pressure on volumes. So that's most important to our Tools business. It's certainly a factor that's influenced our Tools performance in 2015, and the most sensitive portion of our Tools business to that type of environment is the industrial products and services segment of that business.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. And then just a quick follow-up. You guys tweaked the language a little bit on synergies, but it doesn't appear that you're adding in, like you said, you're not adding in the revenue synergies, et cetera. So just any color in terms of the little tweak in language in terms of saying at least $500 million? And that's it for me. Thanks. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I mean, the way I'd answer that is when we look at Project Renewal and what's that – what that will generate by the end of 2017, we'll be somewhere around $700 million of annualized savings from Project Renewal. We've delivered those savings on a base revenue stream that started at $5.5 billion. So, do the math on $700 million divided by $5.5 billion, and then ask yourself whether $500 million on the base of $10 billion, which is the pro forma size of Jarden, is conservative or not conservative. So we've made a commitment to $500 million. We believe there probably is more. If we find more, which I expect we will likely do over time, as we did with Project Renewal. Remember, it was a sequential series of unpacking of the cost structure at Newell Rubbermaid. But if we do find more, a portion of that money will be invested back into the business for accelerated performance either in capabilities or in brand support on the Jarden businesses, and some will flow to margin beyond the $500 million committed to as part of the deal. The first $500 million is going to flow to margin. What happens after that, we will leverage any cost savings beyond that, that we can find to put the work to set up a different strategic future for the company, while also passing some back to investors so that you come along for the ride.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies.

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Kevin.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies.

Good morning. First, if I could just start with a housekeeping question. On the Project Renewal, the $350 million, can you give us an update where we are with that and then what's sort of the expectation for fiscal 2016 in terms of how much flexibility you have? That's the first part. And then the second part, on the Jarden transaction, Mike, it sounds like you see very little risk with respect to regulatory approval, shareholder approval, financing. I want to know if that was a fair sort of characterization. And then just the second part on the Jarden question. Have your conversations with retailers begun to change now given the added scale, particularly that's really a U.S. mass retailer sort of comment? Have those conversations already started to change? Do you feel like you're going to see some sort of benefit there from the added scale? Thanks. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, on your first question regarding Project Renewal, cumulatively, so the annualized savings through the end of 2015 is $360 million. So that's banked, and that's in the bank. We have articulated a range of $625 million to $675 million in cumulative savings, but I just sort of shared with you my ambition and hope is that we get closer to $700 million when it's all said and done at the end of 2017 or into early 2018. 2016 is a big year of renewal savings delivery. We've got a lot of work that was initiated last year that flows into the P&L in 2016. We set up the transformation office in order to really establish a set of very disciplined project management capabilities. We've got teams organized along and across many different work streams. So we expect 2016 to be a…

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies.

That's helpful color. Thanks, guys. Good luck. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Bill Schmitz with Deutsche Bank.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Bill.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Can you just first talk about January sell-in and sell-through trends? And then usually, you give us sort of like some color on the quarterly cadence of earnings. Is there anything funky to pay attention to this year? And then I have a follow-up on the deal. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I gave you some color on quarterly flow in Q1 and that I gave you the Venezuelan impact. If we had not deconsolidated Venezuela in 2016, would have been worth $0.03 to $0.04 in Q1. So that's some color on flow. I didn't give you the numbers for year ago, but that's slightly more than what Venezuela contributed in the year-ago period. So there's a little bit of color. We're pretty bullish on what the first half of the year has to offer because a lot of our new items ship in the first half of the year. So Rubbermaid FRESHWORKS goes, InkJoy Gels go in the first quarter. We had good performance last year; very, very good sellout performance. So we don't enter the year – you can see it in our receivables numbers. You didn't see tremendous movement in our receivables numbers year-over-year. So that's a good sign that inventories have come down in the fourth quarter, retail inventories have come down in the fourth quarter. That's true in a number of places, I suspect. And the kind of POS and sellout that we've got going on is really encouraging. We should have very good – with good sell-through comes good sell-in, and that's set up well. We will spend more in Q1 than we did year-ago from an A&P perspective with stronger innovation, and so we're set up for a good first quarter, I think. And obviously, the proof of the pudding is in the eating and it's not even really the end of January yet, but the green light's in the engine room. So there are always things that you've got challenges that you've got to overcome, and undoubtedly we will have those to deal with this year.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Great. Thanks. And then just on the Jarden deal, can you just – just housekeeping items like what your assumption is on the interest rate on the debt. I think before you said it was plus or minus 3.5%. And then would you ever consider doing like an incremental equity deal to sort of accelerate the deleveraging? How long you think it's going to take to get to 3.5 turns of leverage? Maybe like the broader macro assumptions as you kind of did your deal math. And then lastly – I know there's a lot of questions here, but what the tax rate we should use for the pro forma company? John K. Stipancich - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Bill. It's John. So with respect to the debt, there's a couple of moving pieces, but overall, the term loan is locked. And that rate's roughly, for your modeling, 2% to 2.2%, it's a variable rate instrument. The public debt that Mike was talking about earlier, right now, we originally said yes where we modeled 4%. Credit spreads have moved, but there's still a lot of moving pieces. So we don't know where the tenor will be or how much will go with variable rate debt overall. So there's still a lot of work to do. But we're not too worried about the creep off of the 4% on the public portion of the debt. So that part is, again, work in process. And there is, as you know, a lot of market volatility between now and the time that we ultimately go to market.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Great. And then how about like the timing to get to the 3.5 leverage ratio and the macro assumptions underlying the deal, and then just the pro forma tax rate, if you have it? John K. Stipancich - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, so we can – we get to that ratio, we're committed. So part of the reason why we structured the deal we did is a term loan's a three-year instrument that we have to pay down, the $1.5 billion that I mentioned earlier in my script. And so part of that is a commitment. So we get down to that 3 times to 3.5 times, two years to three years. Right now, we've modeled in a number of sensitivities. So we're very comfortable that 2.5 years from now, we'll be back in that range, give or take, absent some massive change in the underlying economic culture of the world overall. So we have good shape in terms of that. With respect to tax right now, obviously, I think the easiest thing to do is model just the blended tax rate between the two companies, but there is opportunity. Now none of that's reflected, as Mike said, in the synergy numbers that he's talked about and so forth, and we're excited about bringing Jarden in together with us in terms of what we can do with some of our tax structures and so forth. So we definitely see upside on that. But it will take some time obviously to get the two companies together and into one tax system. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So we're going to push to get to delever as quickly as we can. If you look at our numbers, and you probably haven't had time…

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. And then just on the equity raise, would you maybe think about raising equity if it'd accelerate the deleveraging process? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's not in our line of sight right now. And doing an equity deal, not in our line of sight right now. We're going to be really focused on executing both companies' plans. Obviously, there's – if we get good momentum in the core of the business, we can think of different options as we come into 2017. But our focus right now will be on execution. For the deal execution of the individual business plans, delivery of the EBITDA progression that's built into those two plans and it's in the deal economics and playing for more EBITDA if we can find it, either through acceleration of the synergies or through accelerated growth in the businesses, or through other means of influencing gross margin development which are also available to us.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Great. Thanks so much, guys.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Jason Gere with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just a couple of questions. One, just in the six weeks since you've announced the deal, Mike, maybe can you talk a little bit about what has surprised you more on the upside of this deal? Obviously, I know it came together over the fall kind of quickly. But – and within that, what should we anticipate when you guys talk at CAGNY? Will some of the – maybe the integration team members be with you just to get a better sense of the deal and investors getting more comfortable with it? That's the first question. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I don't think you should expect us to go deep into the integration at CAGNY because again, we will not be combined at that point, the two companies. We will lay out where we see the opportunities, and those opportunities will be articulated based on the thinking that went on in the fall and conversations that have happened with senior management since that time. But the planning stages are early on. It's a little premature for us to be doing a deep dive on exactly what we're going to do when in a couple of weeks. That said, I'll lay it out. I'll visually present what I just described to you in the earnings call in a little bit more detail to give you some evidence of where the opportunities are and talk about the ambition we have for the business. But I would expect the more detailed discussion to happen after the shareholder votes and after the transaction is consummated. That's when we'll get into some far more detail. Our focus, though, will be on engaging both sides of the house in understanding where their business opportunities are, learning the Jarden businesses, and then after a period of work and thinking about those, bringing that back together into an integrated approach and strategy for the company.

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Of course, we'd provide guidance for 2016, revised guidance for 2016, and we will provide perspective on the out years, once the transaction's completed.

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. That's fair enough. And then, I guess, the other question. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the competitive landscape maybe in the U.S. Yeah, especially as I think the economy is a little bit more skid-ish, you're seeing a little bit of commodity deflation coming through. I know it may not affect you directly as it does other staple companies, but I'm just wondering if you could talk about any categories where you might be seeing a little bit more pressure or competitors trying to this thwart the innovation that you're bringing out. And within that point, I know you kind of gave us the outlook for Tools for 2016, but I was just wondering if maybe you can kind of give us a framework for core sales in the other segments too. Thanks. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, we typically don't guide core sales by segment, but I think you should expect Writing to have another very good year albeit without the benefit of Venezuela. You should expect Baby to have a very good year as well. We've got terrific momentum there, with great innovation coming. Commercial products, I think you should expect another year of good progress. And you'll see probably the most change in Home Solutions, where Rubbermaid has a whole series of innovations that are coming to market like, FRESHWORKS, like Fasten+Go, which is effectively taking our LunchBlox concept and executing an adult version of a lunchbox for work. And so that'll come. And then in the back half of the year, we've got another exciting food storage innovation that I won't disclose now that, really, will be very, very cool and fun to see how consumers respond to. So, we've got three…

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Joe Altobello with Raymond James. Joseph Nicholas Altobello - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Thanks. Hey, guys. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Joe. Joseph Nicholas Altobello - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Hey. Good morning. Just a couple of quick ones. I guess, first, and, Mike, you sort of touched on this earlier. In terms of the need to invest behind the Jarden brand, it sounds like you don't see a big catch-up period here, given that the first $500 million of cost save will drop to the bottom line effectively. But how do you think about your need to invest behind the Jarden brands? And secondly, how does the acquisition impact your goal of getting to A&P spend of about 7% of sales? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, yeah, let me take the second part of the question first. The acquisition will not impact our drive to get the Newell Rubbermaid portfolio to 7% of sales. As I said in 2016, we'll get that ratio up to 5% – probably around 5.5%. And so, we continue on that journey to the 7% threshold. And we think that happens in 2018, maybe a little bit of a bleed over into 2019, depending on how the renewal cost savings flow through to the P&L. So we don't see any interruption in that drive. On the Jarden businesses, we're just getting to know these businesses. I will tell you, all you have to do to understand the Jarden businesses and whether they have the algorithm right is look at 5.9% core sales growth through the nine-month period in 2015. That would suggest that there are a lot of things going right in these…

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Wendy Nicholson with Citi. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Wendy.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. So, could you talk a little bit about Writing and the operating margins there? I know you talked about both foreign exchange and a higher investment spending pressuring the op margin in the fourth quarter. But it's been a while since we've seen op margins go down to the tune of 200 bps, so, – and I know it's only one quarter and, still, for the year, they were up, but I'm just wondering kind of where we are with your commitment to higher spending going forward, with the China launch, and all that kind of good stuff. Just on that business, specifically, do you think 25% is kind of the right/peak operating margin, or do you still think there's room for margin expansion ahead? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look, in any given quarter, the margin will flow depending on how much investment we've put in. Yeah, we said we spent more money in A&P than we were planning on spending in the quarter, and Writing was the beneficiary of that which should almost always is. The – but we don't have a target margin for businesses. I mean, anything over 20%, in my experience, is a really exciting place to be, because if you grow, you really create a ton of value. So I don't – but I don't envision us drifting down to that level. But I also don't want to target and peg 25% operating income margin as a target margin for the Writing business, because I feel like we might constrain the opportunities for growth. As we move Writing into new geographies, there's sort of an SG&A bubble you have to accept in front of the – ahead of the revenue stream. And our ambition is to deploy this portfolio as broadly as it is relevant to deploy it over the next five to ten years. So, there will be periods where there's a cost of growth associated with that choice that'll be covered by some other business, just like you saw some of the businesses cover Tools investment in 2014. You see other businesses covered Baby investment at the beginning of this year. We'll now see Baby margins come back to fund other investments in Home Solutions. And so we manage this money very dynamically, and we don't let it get trapped in any particular segment. The leadership team allocates resource, and in any given period, operating – you should expect the operating income margins to flex up and down, depending on what investment plans we're making.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Got it. And to the point of sort of your ability to, I don't know, reallocate resources and manage it all, I think you've talked in the past how SAP has helped to a certain extent, and how you expect SAP will help more going forward. But, specifically, to the Jarden transaction, I think one of the concerns that I've heard from investors is just the complexity of that business and the scope, and the breadth, and all of that. So can you tell us, are they on SAP? How quickly do you think it will take to bring them onto your systems, so that you can preserve that great sense of management of the numbers and management of the business? And then just the last thing on that transaction, specifically, obviously, investors have kind of shown that there's a fair amount of concern about the transaction and all of that. Can you address, internally, within Newell, what the response among the employees has been to the transaction? Obviously, Tarchetti's excited about it, but what about everybody else? Do they feel like you're going down a different path than they thought you were? Thanks. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. That's a great question. Let me answer that one last, then maybe John can provide some perspectives, so that it's not biased by me, because I'm obviously very excited about it too. I think people are really energized by this, because they've seen what's happened here and they now, – most people are probably thinking, gosh, there's all kinds of opportunity for me personally to go work in different types of businesses over time. And I get the sense there's a lot of excitement about this. The group's been through a ton of…

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Steph Wissink with Piper Jaffray. Lauren M. Wolff - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hi. This is Lauren Wolff. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Steph. Lauren M. Wolff - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hi. This is actually Lauren Wolff calling in for Steph. Switching gears a little bit, we've seen some significant momentum over the past year within the Baby business in particular. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yup. Lauren M. Wolff - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Do you think this level of growth is sustainable into 2016 and beyond? And would you be able to provide any additional color about the innovations that you mentioned earlier? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I wouldn't count on the 10% type of growth levels as being something that's sustainable every quarter, but we've got a lot of innovation coming in Baby. We're excited about Baby. The combination actually potentially brings together some really exciting opportunities, particularly, with NUK and Baby Jogger. And there are a couple of European soothing businesses, as well, that Jarden has. So, we've got some tremendous opportunity here. We love our Baby business. It's a different business than the rest, in that, on our side of the family, we've outsourced the manufacturing to a strategic partner. So, our gross margins are dilutive to the total company performance. But because we don't own the assets, our return on invested capital is quite high. It's just next to Writing in terms of its value-creation potential if we grow. So when you grow Writing – when you grow Baby, you create a ton of value for investors, to the ROIC and RONA, return on net assets,…

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Linda Bolton Weiser with B. Riley. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Linda. Linda B. Weiser - B. Riley & Co. LLC: Hi. Can you just comment? You named a few things about why operating cash flow was down year-over-year? Can you remind us, how did the $566 million do relative to your original guidance range? And then do you have some guidance on that for 2016, excluding Jarden? And to meet those leverage ratio targets, do you think you're going to have to step up initiatives like on working capital? Or do you think you can just get to those leverage ratios kind of status, just kind of operating cash flow without any special efforts in the working capital area? John K. Stipancich - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. Good morning, Linda. So, we generally don't guide with respect to operating cash flow overall. So, we won't give you any guidance numbers for 2016 or 2015. I will give you an explanation where we landed for 2015 versus 2014. Essentially, we were up about 2% if you take out the $70 million pension payment that we made in 2015 to get our pension plan up to about a 93% funded status. And then we had a little more cash spend on Project Renewal and some other restructuring costs overall. In terms of focus on cash going forward, the model was built without any working capital improvements, but there are plenty of working capital improvements for the transaction as well as on our side. As we've talked about before, our inventories, we can do a little better job on. Overall, we've built some inventories this year for growth and so forth, but we know we can…

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Steve Powers with UBS. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Steve.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey. Great. Thanks. Maybe just carry on the cash theme. Can you talk a little bit about how the deconsolidation of Venezuela impacts the operating cash flow sources and uses outlook that you'd communicated back in September? I mean, obviously, FX has shifted as well, but you had said about $5 billion between 2016 and 2020, with about $2.4 billion sort of uncommitted after CapEx and dividends and base-level repurchases. I'm just curious, obviously, before considering Jarden, if the outlook is materially different now with Venezuela carved out? John K. Stipancich - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So, with respect to the cash generation, the sources and uses, the cash flow write-off for us going forward, the difference will be about $50 million on an annual basis. So, it doesn't materially change the numbers that we've put together in terms of the sources and uses of cash overall. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And the other thing I'd say is that all the modeling we did with the rating agencies, all the modeling we did on the geoeconomics assumed Venezuela out. So, everything that we've articulated externally excludes Venezuela.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. That's great. Thank you very much. And then just, I guess, one clean-up on Writing, if I could. So, I think growth in the segment was about 6% this quarter ex Venezuela, you can correct me if that's wrong, and I think you said high single digits in North America, which implies that growth kind of internationally ex Venezuela was very modest. And just any commentary on that, and how you expect sort of North America versus international to trend in 2016, that'd be helpful. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, so we have three different Writing businesses. We have a Fine Writing business, we have the DYMO business, which gets consolidated in our Writing segment, and then what we call Writing & Creative Expression. Writing & Creative Expression is growing very, very well. This is where Sharpie and Paper Mate and Expo and Prismacolor, they all live in that cluster. Fine Writing has been less positive, the growth rate. And your observation is accurate. Growth in Europe was not as strong as we believe it can be over time, in part, because WACE growth, or Writing & Creative Expression growth, was offset by Fine Writing declines. And so we're in the midst of repositioning our Fine Writing portfolio in Europe, pulling back on some of the low-end portions of that portfolio, so that we focus brands like Parker and Waterman on the high-end portions of that portfolio. So, that is what contributed to Europe's sort of modest Writing results. Terrific growth on Writing & Creative Expression in markets like the UK and in France offset by Fine Writing contraction in the same geographies. Over time, you should expect our Writing business to become more dominant and present in the core, which is Writing & Creative Expression. We've got a terrific plan in place for our Writing business in 2016. I think you should plan for like performance in your models for 2016 as we delivered in 2015, ex Venezuela. And while we haven't quoted a specific number for Writing ex Venezuela, and you shouldn't expect us to, you're in the general ballpark with your analysis.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you very much. Helpful.

Operator

Operator

And your final question comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Rupesh. Rupesh D. Parikh - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Good morning. Thanks for fitting me in. So, my first question, Mike, has to do with innovation. Throughout the call, you made a lot of commentary about all the innovation you expect this year. Is there any way to quantify the impact of innovation this year maybe versus a prior year? And a follow-up question, as consumers continue to migrate more online to buy their products, how does your delivery of innovation change with that dynamic of consumers buying more online? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, great questions. I'll give you some perspective on innovation. So, when we evaluate the impact that innovation's having in our business, we look at what we call the vitality rate or the innovation rate and we measure innovation rate as the percentage of our revenue that's been touched by innovation launched in the last three years. And when we started in 2013 with the new model, our innovation rates were quite low, in the low teens type of level. And as we enter 2016, we're getting very close to what we have as our long-term objective for the innovation rate, which is 30%. And so this is a vitality rate or an innovation rate that the best consumer goods companies would consider the gold standard. And we're well on our way to getting there. We will get there in 2016 with the pipeline of ideas that are coming to market. Rupesh D. Parikh - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. Great. And then maybe just one housekeeping question. Is it possible to get the 2015 gross margin rate and SG&A margin rate, excluding Venezuela? Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We don't typically communicate that, but I'll let Nancy – and you guys try to triangulate around what that would be. But the way you should think about it, it's not that big of a deal, with respect to its impact on overall margins. It may be slightly – it may hurt us a bit on operating margin but not at gross margin. So, I think it actually may help us with VZ out of gross and hurt us with the operating income margin, because we don't spend a ton of money in A&P there. But just modestly, not as much as you might think. Rupesh D. Parikh - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Polk for closing remarks. Michael B. Polk - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, thanks very much, LeeAnn, and thank you to all on the call for your interest in our company. And most important thank – importantly, thank you to all the Newell people who work tirelessly to make these results happen. And to our future colleagues at Jarden, who have worked tirelessly as well over the last few months with our team to pull this transaction together, I think together we're going to make a great team. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

A replay of today's call will be available later today on our website, newellrubbermaid.com. This concludes our conference. You may now disconnect.