Sara Zawoyski
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you, Beth. Let's turn to Slide 8 to review first quarter 2020 results. Sales of $520 million were down 3% relative to last year on a reported basis and declined approximately 8% organically. The acquisitions of Eldon and WBT added five points to growth and performed well overall against our expectations. As we looked at trends during the quarter, average daily orders declined low single digits for most of the quarter, however, quickly deteriorated in the last several weeks of March, ending the quarter down roughly 5%. First quarter free cash flow was better than prior year despite lower profits as our working capital initiatives began to take hold. We saw good improvements in inventory during the quarter, specifically, EFS made some early progress reducing finished goods inventory. We continue to target 100% cash conversion for the full year. Now please turn to Slide 9 for a discussion of our first quarter segment performance. Starting with Enclosures. Sales of $259 million grew 1% with the addition of Eldon and declined 8% organically. As we expected, the industrial vertical was slow during the quarter with additional weakness from COVID-19. Eldon had a strong quarter, growing 3% and expanding return on sales over 300 basis points as we continued to execute on our integration plan. Enclosures segment income declined 10%, mainly due to lower volumes and the impact from COVID-19, resulting in return on sales declining 200 basis points. We did initiate cost actions during the quarter that should begin to read out in the second quarter and balance of the year. Moving to Thermal Management. Sales of $121 million declined 16% organically. There were two main factors impacting Thermal Management sales this quarter. First, we saw pressure in the oil and gas vertical due to lower oil prices, which immediately impacted MRO spend. Second, commercial revenue was lower due to a warmer winter as well as a difficult comparative quarter. And COVID-19 simply amplified the negative impact on demand. Orders trended generally in line with sales, reflecting the MRO and commercial weakness with projects performing a bit better. Importantly, backlog continued to be up double digits year-over-year, reflecting a continued belief that the funnel can translate into sales growth over time. For background, I wanted to provide some detail on our oil and gas mix as it relates to Thermal Management. Today, oil and gas represents approximately 30% of Thermal Management's overall sales, down from 40% in 2016. For nVent overall, approximately 15% of sales are attributed to oil and gas. Within thermal, downstream represents approximately 60% of the oil and gas sales, while midstream and upstream make up the balance and split roughly equally. We are seeing significant deterioration in the upstream. But again, this is only roughly 1% of total nVent sales. In midstream, we are seeing some pockets of resiliency around transport and storage while the global supply demand dynamics, along with COVID-19 are certainly impacting downstream and refinery spend levels. Return on sales declined 680 basis points due to lower-than-expected volume in industrial MRO and commercial, which both tend to have a higher-margin mix component. In thermal, we have taken incremental actions to reduce fixed cost structure and realign our business that will begin to read out in the second quarter and back half of the year. Now on to EFS. Overall, we had a very strong quarter. Sales of $142 million grew 3% organically, with positive contributions from both price and volume. This, combined with productivity gains, translated into strong return on sales expansion of 90 basis points. We also closed on the WBT transaction during the quarter. This unique and labor-saving cable trade product line is a great complement to our nVent CADDY and nVent HOFFMAN portfolio, allowing us to offer customers a one-stop solution for cable management and pathways for data and networking solutions as well as commercial and industrial applications. Turning to slide 10, titled Healthy Liquidity Position. We have a strong liquidity position. Our net leverage ratio at the end of the first quarter was 2.3 times. We had $188 million in cash, an additional $315 million available on our revolver and limited maturities until 2023. We proactively drew $150 million from our credit facility in March to bolster our cash position. We have received a number of questions around debt covenants. Specifically, EBITDA would need to decline over 40% for four consecutive quarters to reach our maximum net leverage ratio covenant of 3.75 times. So from where we stand today, we remain confident in our liquidity position in addition to our cash generation activities this year. On slide 11, titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. The first quarter is typically a cash-usage quarter for us, and this remains true this quarter. Importantly, we ended the quarter in a better free cash flow position versus last year, mainly due to our focus on improving working capital. We believe this is a trend that can continue as we progress through the year and is another example of how we expect to emerge as a stronger nVent. We decreased our full year CapEx spend to the lower end of our original estimate, targeting $40 million, which prioritizes strategic investments. Moving to slide 12. As we evaluated the current environment, we believe it is prudent to withdraw our 2020 guidance given the amount of uncertainty in the market today. We expect to evaluate providing some type of guidance later this year. In lieu of guidance, we have prepared a number of scenarios to map what actions we would take to help manage decrementals while preserving growth investments and driving cash. Specifically, we looked at mild, moderate and severe scenarios that factor in a range of revenue declines over a 12-month period and what actions we would take to ensure we continue operations, manage decrementals, continue to pay our dividend and importantly, strengthen our ability to recover fast. We are driving cost actions through a combination of restructuring activities and temporary reductions. Acquisitions and changes in mix can have an impact in these scenarios. I thought it would be helpful to walk you through these scenarios and provide additional detail. Let me start with a mild scenario, where revenue is down low double digits. In this scenario, we would target margin decrementals before any impact from acquisitions to be in the 30% range. We expect free cash flow to be down low double digits or in line with sales, with assumptions, such as improvements in working capital, a reduction in CapEx spend, offset in part by a cash component to some of the cost actions. In a moderate scenario, which I would characterize as a similar scenario to the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis. We modeled sales down roughly 20% for a full year. Our current expectations for full year 2020 are between the mild and this moderate scenario. We've identified additional cost actions to keep margin decrementals near 35% range, including further discretionary spend reductions, extensions of the temporary cost reductions, lower incentives, along with some targeted footprint changes. We'd expect free cash flow to be down 25% to 30%. Looking at the more severe scenario, this assumes revenue down 30% or more. We could also call a cash breakeven analysis, meaning how far sales would have to decline before we risk having negative free cash flow after paying dividends. Post cost actions, we would assume margin decrementals would be closer to 40% and free cash flow down over 40%. Again, these scenarios that we have modeled at enterprise, the segment level and in each of the plants to help ensure we have the plans in place and we are ready to execute. Our goal is to manage decrementals, preserve strategic growth investments and drive cash to help us recover fast and return to growth. While we are not providing guidance for the second quarter, I thought I would share how we were thinking about it as we close April. Looking at current daily sales rates and trends throughout the business, it seems logical to think that organic sales in the second quarter could be down 20% to 30% year-over-year. Based on the timing of our cost actions, we would expect the drop-through on margin decrementals to be closer to 40% in the second quarter with sequential improvement. We do expect the second quarter to be the weakest quarter based on current economic forecasts. As this situation evolves, this can certainly change. Hhowever, this viewpoint is based on what we are seeing today. As we progress throughout the year, we are not expecting a quick or a V-shaped recovery. We expect a longer duration of the current environment. And while the rate of decline may moderate throughout the year with the second quarter being the most challenged, we expect to continue to align our costs with what we are seeing in the market. A couple of other points as guideposts for full year 2020. We continue to expect interest in the $40 million to $43 million range and a tax rate between 18% and 19%. On shares, if we do not buy back any more this year, our diluted share count would be closer to $171 million, but still lower versus prior year. Our focus is on actively managing decrementals, preserving cash and recovering fast. I am confident that we are taking the appropriate actions to create a stronger nVent when we emerge. This concludes my comments on the first quarter, and I will now turn the call back over to Beth.