Amir Aghdaei
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Of course, sir. So what we saw in Q4, China sales increased by almost 15%. And that's as you mentioned, that's a good indication of cost played a really important role in it. But if I take a look at the entire year, China was flat. And, normally, about 10% of our business have had been going double digit for years. And so in 2024, what we see in here, Q1, because of easier comp, we expect a strong growth. As we go through Q2 to Q4, we're going to have a more difficult comp in here. VBP of implant comes in place, so we know exactly what that look like, but it's more of a moderate thing. Our assumption is that the ortho VBP is going to be in place in second half, and that's how we have planned for. If it doesn't happen, then, okay, we will have a different model to discuss. We expect some volatility in China and the reason for it is purely because of the consumer spending and sentiment. What we hear from our team, what you hear, I'm sure, the housing crisis, the slower growth and government intervention in some of the areas, we are considering all of that to be an issue and that we need to deal with, but we have not taken our eyes out of China. We think China is going to be a growth driver for Envista. It's underpenetrated. We've got a great reputation in brass. Our specialty business is really well positioned. We just need to deal with these short term issues and find the new model, transform our business as we did with our implant, do that on ortho, get ourself in a better place on equipment and consumable, and we expect this to stabilize as we go forward. The patient demand in China, based on the latest information that we have, seems to be resilient as it stabilized. We're not getting any major feedback that we are seeing a major change as you can imagine. February 9, Chinese New Year 2016, we're going to have a little bit of a breaking year. Our hope is after they come back, we're going to see that momentum to continue.