David Butters
Analyst · Donald McLee from Berenberg. Your line is now. Please ask your question
Thank you for that question. Right now, we’re not seeing much in the way of pushback at all from that particular terminal. The question is -- the fundamental question that you raised is, what is the ultimate demand for U.S. ethylene out of the United States, particularly contracted on the long-term basis. Currently, any barrels that we could possibly get, will be sold, because there is an enormous, usually strong spread between U.S. ethylene pricing and international pricing. And that’s of course, as I’ve said in the opening remarks is -- totally is a result of very cheap hydrocarbons. The spread is so great that it’s probably non-sustainable and it always -- for the last five to six years, it has been quite good, but it’s enormous right now. I think, if I could quote current numbers, you can buy a ton of ethylene today in the United States for approximately $300 a ton. International markets are anywhere between $1,200 and $1,400 a ton. This is quite an incredible spread, considering the cost of transportation terminalling and so on is probably in the area depending on where it’s going, $300, $350 a ton. So, you would say on the face of it, you could sell every molecule; you could get sell every molecule, you could get your hand on. But, really, the fundamental reason or issue will be how long a contract, and that’s what we are after, long-term contracts, how long can you get contracts for to sustain the coverage on your plans. Right now, we’re making good progress. I think, it will accelerate once we can finalize some decisions we have to make on our own terminal which are about ready to be completed. We have not -- in spite of some decisions not being finalized, we are not stopping whatsoever in the design and planning of that facility. So, that as I mentioned in the opening remarks, we are actually moving it quicker. We hope to get up and run this operation in Texas by the end of the fourth quarter -- in the fourth quarter of 2019. But to answer your question more directly, we’re not running into any resistance or any competitive backlash from the Nova/ETP. But of course they haven’t made a final decision. They just announced that they were investigating it. Again, it reflects strong interest, these wide margins and the outlook that U.S. ethane and U.S. ethylene will be under-priced throughout the world and have strong competitive features to it.