John Trizzino
Analyst · Jefferies. You may now go ahead
Thanks John. Please turn to slide six. Novavax's COVID vaccine is authorized for use in over 40 countries around the globe. Leading into the 2023, 2024 fall vaccination season, many of these countries are still purchasing COVID vaccines under advanced purchase agreements, APAs, while in the US moves to traditional vaccine purchasing and commercial operations. Today, I will be discussing specific activities and readiness for each region. Please turn to slide seven. The US, as planned, is exiting the pandemic phase and entering a more traditional seasonal vaccine market with many similarities to seasonal annual influenza vaccine distribution. We have been preparing for commercialization in the US throughout the pandemic phase, and we are ready organization-wide for availability of product as soon as September, of course, dependent on our FDA strain-specific authorization and ACIP recommendations for use. As you would expect, there has been significant collaboration across many US agencies and within HHS to ensure that this transition is executed smoothly and there is vaccine available for anyone interested in receiving a COVID vaccine. Critical updates and prioritization of public health objectives over the past few months have provided greater clarity for the upcoming vaccination season and focused our preparation. Let me highlight some of the most important and significant items. Based on the evaluation and recommendation from VRBPAC, the FDA selected the XBB.1.5 as the monovalent strain for the 2023-2024 COVID season. Novavax has been manufacturing this new variance train at commercial scale based on the final strain recommendations in June. Our updated XBB.1.5 COVID vaccine is on track to be in our US facility in September and immediately available for distribution and use upon authorization. Two, HHS Secretary Becerra, outlined four priorities for the transition to traditional commercial access of COVID vaccines. Novavax is working to support these priorities by producing sufficient supply of vaccine; ensuring low income and underserved populations have ready access to the vaccine whereby we will be participating in the Bridge Access Program with leading retailers to provide free vaccine to those without insurance coverage; providing a competitively priced vaccine that removes pricing as a barrier to access and working with the US government to share distribution and vaccination data for our XBB COVID vaccine. Three, the CDC plays a critical role on multiple fronts for the success of this first season. And I am pleased to report that Novavax has contracts and negotiated pricing in place with the CDC and other entities, including that for the vaccine for children's program funding that has made vaccine available for low-income children since 1994. Four, Novavax believes based on its own analysis and consensus across multiple sources that the US market demand for COVID vaccine this fall will range from 80 million to 100 million doses. Of course, market demand and the number of doses needed across all channels and populations in the US can only be estimated, and we will only know for sure as the respiratory disease season unfolds. What we do know with more certainty is that COVID vaccine strains continue to circulate and there is great value in a safe and effective vaccine to help prevent and to reduce the most severe complications of COVID disease and that Novavax is on track to be ready this fall with the ample COVID vaccine supply in support of US public health needs. With these imperatives in mind, we have put forth tremendous effort to ensure that we are organization-wide ready for the 2023-2024 COVID season. Please turn to slide eight and allow me to detail specific activity. A core focus for us is manufacturing readiness. We have been manufacturing our updated XBB-COVID vaccine at commercial scale, which will enable us to supply tens of millions of doses of our vaccine in line with our planned demand for the fall season. We expect to have doses in our US warehouse in advance of FDA's authorization and ACIP's policy recommendations to ensure that we can quickly ship initial stocking orders to customers in September. We are also keenly focused on our commercial readiness, central to our fall initiatives has been the execution of our targeted commercial contracting strategy. We continue to believe that the COVID vaccine market dynamics and the channels of distribution will be comparable to the annual seasonal influenza vaccine market. This market intelligence drives our strategy to make our vaccine available to the commercial, government and public health affiliated network of vaccine program stakeholders that are responsible for administering the majority of vaccinations. This target group consistently offers and administers greater than 150 million flu vaccinations across the country every fall and winter respiratory virus season. Execution of this strategy means we will make our COVID vaccine available via three key health care provider channels and buying groups. This would include, but may not be limited to the following: retail pharmacy across all national, regional and independent pharmacies, integrated delivery networks and physician buying groups and public health access via the CDC, VFC, Department of Defense, and Indian Health Services. This strategy is also dependent on and requires the utilization of a network of well-known and highly experienced vaccine distribution partners to deliver our product to the various points of service across the country. To that end, once authorized any vaccinating health care provider or vaccinating organization interested in acquiring our vaccine will have a familiar selection of participating distributors that should provide for easy access to our vaccine. Having spent time in my career in the vaccine distribution space, I truly understand and value what our distribution partners bring to Novavax, our customers, and to the consumers who will receive our vaccine. To-date, we have established critical relationships with key provider and retail buying groups, and executed distribution contracts that ensure national widespread availability to HCPs and ensure consumer choice in their COVID vaccine selection. Our recent progress includes the following; distributors contracts signed or in process that covers 100% of three priority health care provider channels. Pharmacy contracts signed or in progress, representing approximately 80% of vaccines administered in pharmacies. CDC and other government services such as VA, DoD and Indian Health Service contracts are signed and coordination is in process for dose availability per the respective agreements. GPO and PPG contracts, physician buying group contracts signed or in final stages will provide access to office-based providers associated with the top integrated delivery networks and major medical groups that drive 90% of the vaccinations within these organizations. These relationships will ensure we have availability and broad access to key providers and pharmacies to support patient choice of their COVID vaccine. We feel confident that our overall strategy will create convenient nationwide access to our vaccine for any consumer seeking it as well as any health care provider who would like to acquire our vaccine for their COVID vaccination program this fall. And finally, we have implemented a commercial pricing strategy that will reflect the overall value that our vaccine delivers, allowing us to achieve broad access to competitively position our vaccine. We continue to see a significant market opportunity in the US based upon our commercial readiness efforts. We remain confident in our ability to capture meaningful market share during the upcoming fall season and beyond. Please turn to slide nine. Ex-US, we expect total revenue of approximately $700 million from APA orders for 2023 based on committed dose delivery schedules, subject to updated variant manufacturing and regulatory approvals, and I'd like to share some details about how this breaks down. In the EU, we will be completing our COVID vaccine shipments against the original APAs before the end of this year when we expect to deliver the remaining 17 million committed doses. The relationships established during the pandemic remains strong across the EU and our commercial organization deployed against key EU markets, including Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and Switzerland. We look forward to 2024 and the shift to traditional commercial vaccine distribution, both in the private and tender markets. We expect to continue to grow share in these key markets based upon the expressed need for the non-mRNA option and Nuvaxovid's position as a safe and effective protein-based vaccine approved for use in the EU. In Canada, we amended our APA, which provided for payment of forfeited doses in 2023, reinforced our commitment to establish in-country manufacturing in 2024 and 2025 and also extended dose purchasing commitments into 2024 and 2025. We are excited to have strengthened our partnership with Canada and establish a foundation for continued vaccine supply. Finally, in Asia-Pacific, we have similarly created strong relationships with our country partners in this region. We continue to supply against existing APAs to Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, and Israel. While some APAs continue into 2023 and 2024, we are beginning to execute against traditional vaccine tender purchasing policy. Interest in vaccine Choice remains high with specific focus on the need for a non-mRNA choice of a protein-based vaccine. Regarding ongoing label expansion and policy recommendations, across all of our priority markets, we are engaged with regulatory authorities and policymaking bodies to expand our label and advance policy recommendations that will enable broad market access. We are generating data from our Phase IIb/III global clinical trial to support expansions to our label in younger children six years of age to 11, which Filip will discuss in more detail shortly. And we are making important progress towards ensuring access to our product through supportive policies. As an example, Germany's policy body, the Robert Koch Institute, recently expanded their recommendation for vaccines this fall to include all licensed and variant adaptive vaccines regardless of technology platform. This increasing policy support further drives our confidence that our updated XBB-COVID vaccine will be accessible this fall. We are also pursuing full approvals in key markets, which will establish the foundation for future regulatory approvals of our updated vaccine. Last month, we received our first full marketing authorization in the EU as a primary series for ages 12 and older and as a booster dose in adults. We are also preparing to file for full approval in other key markets. In the US, we have initiated the rolling submission of our BLA filing and we intend to submit the remainder of our data over the coming months. While full approval via the BLA process will be an important milestone for us early next year we will be able to sell and market our updated XBB COVID vaccine for the upcoming 2023 full vaccination season under emergency use authorization. Regarding competitive product profiling and positioning, in the majority of countries where we have APAs and in the US, our vaccine, if authorized, would be the only non-mRNA-XBB protein-based COVID vaccine option, allowing our vaccine to serve as an important alternative to consumers and health care professionals. As we prepare to deliver our updated vaccine for the fall, we remain confident in the competitive product profile of our vaccine. With that said, I'd like to hand it over to Filip to discuss updates for our clinical development and pipeline.