Stanley Erck
Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open
Thanks, Erika. Welcome to our second quarter 2018 earnings call. It will come as no surprise that we're looking forward to seeing data from our prepared Phase III trial and our NanoFlu Phase II clinical trial, both of which put us on a path towards BLA submissions over the next 2 years. In addition, discussing our clinical progress and plans, I'd also like to talk about our activities related to regularly updates, manufacturing progress and then pre-commercialization efforts. So my agenda will be first, I'll remind you of the recent clinical data around ResVax our RSV vaccine for infants via maternal immunization and NanoFlu or influence of vaccine in older adults. Next, I'll talk about what to expect from clinical trial execution for both programs over the next 6 months. Following that, we'll talk about our recent regulatory interactions, which are increasingly important as we approach the finish line for both of these programs. I will then touch on some of these parallel activities I mentioned that are critical to address in advance of product launches. And finally, I will remind you of the market opportunities for ResVax and NanoFlu. So let's start with clinical data. There's nothing that we haven't already reported, but I think that the data are so significant that they are worth repeating. In the 60-plus years that the vaccine industry has been working on an RSV vaccine, there have never been positive efficacy data in a Phase III efficacy trial. Earlier this year, we reported that following consultation with the FDA, we were allowed to conduct an informational analysis, whereby, our independent analysts indicated that we had exceeded a predetermined efficacy threshold in roughly the first third of the prepared trial participants. We were then, and remain still, blinded to the Prepare trial data. This analysis allowed us to calculate for this first third of this trial and observe vaccine-efficacy point estimate that falls in the range from at least 45% up to 100% at that time. This is an historic observation. With NanoFlu, as you all know, we performed a head-to-head comparison against the market-leading vaccine in older adults, Fluzone High-Dose. And we demonstrated significantly improved immune responses particularly against the circulate H3N2 strain. And as you are likely aware, H3N2 has been associated with 61% of the U.S.-based flu-related hospitalizations in the 2017, '18 flu season. Based on these positive top line results from our Phase I/II clinical trial, we believe that we have a better, differentiated flu-vaccine candidate that has the potential to address one of the world's largest unmet medical needs. We reported these positive top line results in February, and the results were recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Now let me take you through the next stages of clinical trial execution for both of these programs. For ResVax, we reported that we had achieved a critical milestone in the Prepare trial in May by enrolling 4,636 women, at least 3,000 of whom received ResVax. We met the FDA's threshold for safety. Also, now that the last child has been born, we have a known date for completion of follow-up in these infants. Our protocol requires us to monitor them for 180 days for efficacy, and that date will come at the end of this calendar year. Data cleaning and database lock -- time line should be allowed to report pivotal results from the Prepare trial during the first quarter of 2019. We have already started BLA-related activities which will obviously, escalate with a target BLA filing date in the first quarter of 2020. Switching over to NanoFlu. Based on last season's successful Phase I/II trial, we will initiate a Phase II clinical trial to explore 2 important issues. The first is the effect of our Matrix-M adjuvant by comparing immune responses of adjuvant, adjuvanted and unadjuvanted formulations. Second, we are examining the effect of adding a fourth strain to create a competitive, quadrivalent formulation. We expect to announce top line data from this Phase II clinical trial also during the first quarter of next year. So that summarizes our clinical trial activities planned for the rest of the year. Let me move on to regulatory activities. Both our RSV and flu programs are conducted in manner that complies with regulatory agency guidelines in the U.S. and Europe. Our expectation is that once pivotal data are reported for each program, we will prepare and file marketing applications, virtually simultaneously with the FDA and European Medicines Authority. We have been actively engaged with both of these regulatory agencies in the U.S. and Europe. For ResVax, we recently reached agreement with the FDA that the upcoming, planned efficacy analysis, which we expect to conduct in the first quarter of 2019 will now be the final analysis used to support our future BLA submission. This will no longer be our plan to interim analysis, but our final analysis. The current aggregate number of blinded, primary endpoint cases, along with projected cases, gives us confidence that the Prepare trial is powered to make a statistically sound efficacy conclusion. Assuming successful results from the final analysis, we expect to file a BLA with the FDA and a marketing authorization application or MAA with the EMA by the first quarter of 2020. Let me remind you that the FDA granted ResVax a fast-track designation, which means that we could potentially be eligible for priority review of our BLA, which can reduce the standard FDA review time by 4 months. With respect to NanoFlu, following our successful Phase I/II trial, we met with the FDA to discuss our data and the trial design for upcoming Phase II clinical trial expected to begin in the third quarter of this year. We expect to announce top line data from this Phase II clinical trial during the first quarter of next year. We will then schedule an end of Phase II meeting with the FDA to discuss our plans for a Phase III clinical trial, and we would hope to initiate and complete that pivotal trial in the second half of 2019. In July, the FDA acknowledged and agreed that the accelerated approval pathway for seasonal influenza vaccines could be available for NanoFlu. Accelerated approval require specific criteria to be met, but in short, is available for a product demonstrating meaningful benefit over existing treatments and when there are available circuit -- and when they are available surrogate markets of efficacy. For NanoFlu, this means we could conduct an immunogenicity trial only Phase III clinical trial against a licensed competitor, accompanied by a commitment to conduct a post-licensure efficacy trial. So now let me turn to other activities that are moving in parallel that will support our product launch and commercialization efforts. In manufacturing, ResVax and NanoFlu are both made using a series of complex manufacturing processes. Product yields, product purity and stability are critical for defining our product as well as for meeting future market demands. Although, we usually don't focus publicly on the status of these efforts, our progress over the last couple of years has been significant and deserves highlighting. With RSV, prior to Phase III trials, we have developed a manufacturing processes, which is sufficient for product launch in terms of product yields and stability. As we entered Phase III, we then focused on increasing yields, while keeping all other aspects of the product the same, allowing for us to supply global market projections, at least during the first several years of product introduction. We're very pleased to report that product yields have increased several fold and will support our needs and our current manufacturing facility in Gaithersburg for that period. With our NanoFlu platform, we have increased yields as much as 10 to 20 fold relative to our prior influenza program. This is a major breakthrough. So let's move to commercial launch and partnering. Our products are targeted for global markets, our core commercial team has been laying the groundwork prior to launch with government policymakers, provider, payers, associations, advocates and kye opinion leaders in advance of regulatory approval. This core team is addressing all relevant components of a U.S. commercial launch, and we expect to receive important recommendations from CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices or ACIP shortly after FDA approval, an important step in the commercialization process of a new vaccine. We recognize that we could also benefit from larger partners to fully access global market opportunities with the world's first RSV vaccine and a differentiated first-in-class influenza vaccine, one or more partners can help us leverage their current infrastructure and accelerate the process of setting up global manufacturing, distribution, sales and marketing. The vaccine industry is comprised of a small number of large players who we know well, and we continue to evaluate partnering opportunities that may provide benefit to each program. Finally, the market opportunity. I would like to take a couple of minutes to highlight the significant global need for an RSV vaccine for infants and for our current competitive -- and our current -- competitive position in this market. RSV remains the leading cause of infant hospitalization in United States, which is exacerbated by the absence of any vaccine to prevent the disease or any widely used treatment other than supportive care once an infant becomes adult. In the U.S. alone, there are approximately 4 million infants born every year, for which 70% -- of which 70% are infected with RSV during their first year of life. Based on the large untreated market and the severity of RSV disease, we believe that there is at least a $1.5 billion market for ResVax in higher-income countries and obviously, the market opportunity gets much bigger when we consider infants in all geographies. We also expect high uptake of ResVax similar to pediatric vaccine uptake, given the disease burden is high. For pediatric vaccines, compliance, which translates to market penetration, typically reaches in the 90% range. ResVax remains on track to be first-in-class, and we expect this exclusivity to continue for the foreseeable future. The market for flu vaccines has long been established and growing. It exceeds $3 billion annually. It is generally characterized by several vaccines that historically, were not differentiated from one another. There has been a push in recent years to develop differentiated vaccines. One such vaccine is Fluzone High-Dose. This vaccine has been targeted toward the older-adult population and carries with it a premium price. It has been very successful in capturing the majority of the older-adult market. Our goal is to differentiate our NanoFlu vaccine from Fluzone High-Dose by demonstrating higher and broader-immune responses to a wider range of flu strains. We have demonstrated just that in our Phase I/II trial and expect to repeat that in this year's Phase II trial and next year in the Phase II trial. We believe NanoFlu can capture significant share of this multi-billion influenza market. I will now turn the call over to John Trizzino to present a financial overview of the quarter.