Jason Newton - Agrium, Inc.
Analyst
Hey. Good morning, Oliver. Yeah, we saw the Indian tender get cancelled yesterday, and that is really almost similar timing to what happened a year ago. But as far as market conditions are concerned, we see it a bit different now versus what the case was a year ago. If you look at the supply/demand in India, overall production and imports so far this year are down about 2.2 million tonnes, while the domestic deliveries are only down about 0.3 million tonnes. So, year-over-year, there is close to 2 million tonnes difference in the supply/demand balance. A year ago, we were adding inventories in India. And this year, we've been tightening them in the range of about 1.5 million tonnes year-over-year. So, the Indian market's in a lot different situation and we think they will have to continue to tender between now and early next year to add new supply to avoid going into a deficit situation. You're right that new supplies are coming on stream. The big AOA plant in Algeria has added one train, is expected to add another. And there is some small production coming on stream in Ukraine and in Central Europe, although the magnitude of that is relatively small. But the other thing to consider is, as we move into the first half of the calendar year, you get into a seasonally strong demand period. And as we look at the – in particular the North American supply/demand balance, we think there will have to be imports moving into the market in the new year, and prices still are not attractive to import volumes moving in. And essentially, the market has been net balance between imports and exports in the third quarter of the year. So, as we as we look at demand, over the next few months, we think that growth will offset the supply coming on stream. The other thing to watch will be what happens in China. And at current prices, it looks like the Chinese production should be getting somewhat more profitable, but we haven't seen production rates go up and in fact they've been moving down over the last few weeks. And as we get into the first quarter of next year, it's the Chinese high demand period. And we know a year ago, they drew down inventories to meet domestic demand and those inventories aren't in place at this time. And so, the Chinese demand situation in the first part of next year will also be important to watch.