Duston Williams
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets
Thank you, Dheeraj. Before we get into the review of our strong Q4 and fiscal 2018 results, I thought it would be helpful for me to summarize where we are in our overall software transition and more importantly, where we're headed in FY 2019. In fiscal 2018, we embarked on a business and consumption model transition, the likes of which few, if any companies, have accomplished, focusing on the elimination of the pass-through hardware revenue associated with the sales of our turnkey NX appliances. During our Q1 earnings call, just nine -- Q1 2018 earnings call, just nine months ago, we committed to a bold plan to eliminate a majority of our pass-through hardware revenue. Today, I'm extremely pleased to say that we have eliminated our hardware pass-through revenue exactly according to this plan. It's important to note that all of our non-portable software transactions associated with the past appliance sales were not perpetual licenses but rather, licenses valid for the life of the device. Therefore, we expect a large portion of these historical non-portable software licenses to renew over time. Beginning in Q2 2019 and ramping through the second half of the fiscal year, we will make changes to how our software solutions will be packaged for our non-portable software sales, directly associated with the Nutanix appliance or NX. For instance, we will begin a phased-in approach for software licensing connection with the new Nutanix NX sale that will transition the business to a term-based subscription licensing model. This will replace today's licensing structure, which is based on life of the hardware, giving customers greater choice and flexibility around their software procurement strategies and provide portability of the software. Over the last few quarters, we've also been focused on selling more term-based subscription software associated with our current offerings. In other words, deals without any associated hardware. These term-based subscription software deals typically one, three or five-year terms, have not only been increasing in number but also in deal size. And finally our recent introduction of Beam, Frame and soon, Xi, as well as other future offerings allow us to begin selling cloud-based subscription software. In association with these changes, beginning Q1 fiscal 2019, we will disclose our software and entitlement details in a manner that is consistent with many other software companies. We will go from providing breakouts for pass-through hardware, software, entitlements, and support as we have done this year, to providing the following four category breakups: One, pass-through hardware. This category will affect the cost of any hardware remaining that we transact on our books, and this will reflect no change to how we currently report hardware. Two, non-portable software. Non-portable software will represent sales of our software operating system when delivered on an appliance by us, one of our contract manufacturers or one of our OEM partners. The software licenses associated with these sales are typically non-portable and tied to the life of the appliance it is delivered on. Three, subscription. The category of subscription sales will be generated from the sales of renewable software such as term-based licenses and cloud-based software-as-a-service or SaaS offerings as well as include renewable software entitlement and support subscriptions. And finally, professional services. The professional services sales category will include sales of professional services relating to our products. We believe this new breakout will give greater transparency into our business, particularly as it relates to the details around the true recurring nature of our business. And beginning next quarter, like the approach we took with providing our estimated hardware reduction, we will provide a multiple quarter outlook on how we see our subscription business trending as a percentage of the total business. Now, we move on to an overview of fiscal 2018 and the fourth quarter performance. I'll first touch on a few key fiscal 2018 highlights. As you've heard in fiscal 2018, software and support revenue increased 47% while software and support billings grew 54%. Our bill-to-revenue ratio increased to 1.23 in fiscal 2018 versus 1.17 in fiscal 2017, driving the deferral of an incremental $55 million of high margin revenue during the quarter. The increase in this revenue is directly correlated to a surge in non-portable software and subscription sold during the year. Gross margins improved to 68% in fiscal 2018 versus 63% in fiscal 2017. And we were also pleased that we self-funded our rapid, at-scale growth this year while generating $30 million in free cash flow. And our Rule of 40 score in fiscal 2018 was 51, a level very few companies achieve. Now, a few of the Q4 highlights. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $304 million, growing 20% from the year ago and up 5% from the previous quarter ahead of our guidance of $295 million to $300 million. In Q4, we targeted to eliminate $95 million of pass-through hardware revenue, and we eliminated exactly $95 million. Software and support revenue, which most accurately reflects the growth of our business, was $268 million in Q4, up 49% from the year ago quarter and up 18% from the prior quarter. Total billings were $395 million in the quarter, representing a 37% increase from the year ago quarter and a 12% increase from Q3. And once again, and consistent with last quarter, this billings performance far exceeded our implied guidance in the current Street estimates of $372 million. Software and support billings were $359 million, growing 66% from the year ago quarter and up 23% from the prior quarter. At the start of fiscal 2018, we committed to have our pass-through hardware revenue represent only 9% of our total billings by Q4 and we delivered on this target exactly in the quarter. On a billings basis, our product mix for Q4 was 91% software and support and 9% pass-through hardware. Although our forecast are always comprised of a mix of small deals and large deals and various associated probabilities, the reference greater than $20 million deal did result in the U.S. public sector of our business exceeding its plan to some degree, which partially contributed to the Q4 billing's outperformance. The bill-to-revenue ratio in Q4 was 1.3, exceeding our previous estimate of 1.25 and driving the deferral of an additional $12 million more in revenue that would have been reflected in both revenue and gross profit. It's important to note that at a bill-to-revenue ratio of 1.25 to 1.3, Nutanix is on a net basis, deferring a greater percentage of billings than most SaaS companies, including Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow, VMware, Splunk, and Tableau. Our Q4 deferred revenue increased by $91 million from Q3, up 71% from a year ago and up 17% from the previous quarter, ending the quarter at $631 million. New customer bookings represented 30% of total bookings in the quarter, up from 26% in Q3. In Q4, our software and support-related bookings from our international regions were 40% of total software and support bookings versus 38% in Q4 2017. Our non-GAAP gross margin grew strongly in Q4 to 77.7%, up from 62.6% in the year ago quarter, 68.4% in the prior quarter, and better than our guidance of 73% to 74%. Operating expenses were $256 million and within our guidance range of $250 million to $260 million. On a non-GAAP basis, net loss was $19 million for the quarter, a loss of $0.11 per basic share. Now, a few balance sheet highlights here and some other metrics. We closed the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $934 million, and it was up from $923 million in Q3. DSO is on a straight average with 78 days compared to 60 days this quarter. Month three represented less than 50% of our total bookings. However, billings were a bit more back-end loaded. The weighted average DSO was 23 days in Q4. We generated $23 million of cash from operations in the quarter, which was positively impacted by $14 million of ESPP inflow and we generated a positive $6 million of free cash flow during the quarter. This performance was also positively impacted by the same $14 million of ESPP. Now, I'll turn to the guidance for the first quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, we expect the following for Q1; billings between $370 million and $390 million versus current consensus of $374 million, a bill-to-revenue ratio of approximately 1.26, revenue between $295 million and $310 million, gross margin between 78% and 79%, operating expenses between $280 million and $290 million, and a per share loss of between $0.26 and $0.28, using weighted average shares outstanding of 176 million. Now, let me just share a little bit more color regarding the Q1 guidance. Our billings guidance assumes pass-through hardware to be 5% to 6% of total billings versus our previous estimate of 7%. This one to two percentage point reduction negatively impacts total billings and revenue by $4 million to $8 million, that otherwise would have been reflected as additional pass-through hardware billings and revenue. The offset to the slightly reduced billings and revenue expectation is that we now expect higher gross margins, which will continue to run significantly ahead of our prior expectations. We provided a bit wider guidance range this quarter to accommodate some potential fluctuation in the ultimate pass-through hardware percentage. And it's also very important to note that the difference in the estimated bill-to-revenue ratio of 1.26 versus the current Street consensus of 1.21 results in upwards of $12 million more deferred revenue than otherwise, which would have been reflected in both revenue and gross profit. Our billings guidance also implies that software and support billings will grow between 50% and 55% from Q1 2018. And one final comment on our Q1 guidance. Q4 was another strong quarter, which provided us with further conviction that our Q2s, the January quarter, and our Q4s, the July quarter, continue to get stronger while our Q1s, the October quarter and our Q3s, the April quarter are exhibiting a bit softer seasonal trend. We expect this pattern to continue into fiscal 2019 and this is reflected in our Q1 guidance. And before we open up the call for questions, I'd like to touch on a few additional thoughts around fiscal 2019. First, it will be another exciting year of transition for Nutanix as we continue our business model and consumption model transition. With a focus on expanding our current market-leading position while at the same time remaining within our Rule of 40 commitment, we expect to significantly increase spending in fiscal 2019. The spending will continue to be directed towards our core products as well as a substantial increased allocation to our growing new product portfolio, including, but not limited to, Xi, Beam, Epoch, Era, Flow, Sherlock, and our newest offering, Frame, many of which are cloud-based subscription offerings. We believe these investments will provide strong leverage based on their ability to drive significantly increased shareholder value over time. As a point of reference, one very recent analyst report estimated that our Beam acquisition could be worth an incremental $1.2 billion of enterprise value in four years. As Dheeraj mentioned in his narrative, we are clearly not taking a myopic approach with our investments. And although these new investments are not yet generating any significant revenue, they will certainly play a major role in driving superior growth through fiscal 2021 and beyond. At our next Investor Day, we will provide some clarity into our projections for our new product portfolio. When we sit back and analyze our spending plans, we take note of the following: our strong growth in spending will be completely self-funded by our free cash flow; our ramped rep sales productivity has increased sequentially for the last three six-month periods ending Q4 2017, Q2 2018, and Q4 2018 and our customer repeat purchase multiples continue to increase. Based on what we believe to be a very compelling ROI on our investments, fiscal 2019 will clearly be a year that we trade off free cash flow and profitability in favor of extending our market leading position in superior growth at scale. Under the Rule of 40 framework, our guiding principle has been and will continue to be to deliver self-funding, superior growth. Even with our planned increase in spending, we expect to remain within our committed Rule of 40 score of 40% with most and more likely all of the score coming from annual software and support revenue growth. These incremental investments in our core offerings as well as our growing new product portfolio strengthens our conviction that we remain on track to deliver at least $3 billion in billings in FY 2021. And with that, operator, if you could open up the call for questions, that would be great.