Paul Sarvadi
Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Your line is now live. Go ahead, please
Thank you, Doug and thank you all for joining us. Today, I'll provide comments on three topics, starting with some thoughts on our significant outperformance in the recent quarter. I will then discuss how the primary drivers to our business model reacted to the pandemic resulting in the opportunity implied by the guidance we are providing today to attain double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA this year. I'll finish with some comments on our view of these factors going forward, which will ultimately drive our outlook for 2021. We are certainly pleased with our execution in the third quarter, which resulted in a variety of factors contributing to better than expected results. The resiliency of our client base supported by our dedicated service providers, combined with solid sales and retention to drive a nice rebound and sequential growth in our key metric paid worksite employees. Net gain in worksite employees from within our client base exceeded our expectation as client hiring of furloughed and new employees occurred sooner and at a faster pace. As Doug mentioned, the client retention continued at historical levels of 99%, despite the economic pressure on small businesses in the current environment. In addition, our booked sales since the pandemic have been approximately 70% of our pre-pandemic sales budget, which we believe is solid performance in a virtual selling environment. In the third quarter paid worksite employees from previously booked sales was 92% compared to the same period last year, demonstrating continued demand for our services and strong execution in enrolling new clients. Another highlight of the quarter was our strong pricing of both new and renewing accounts in service fees and allocations for direct costs, including our benefit programs. The matching of price and direct costs is critical to our model and exceeding our targets and this area is important as direct costs affected by the pandemic normalized. We've also been able to continue to grow and develop our BPA team through this quarter. During this period, we virtually trained over 350 BPAs in our level one, two and three, and our certified Business Performance Advisor programs. Our trained BPA count increased 10% over the same period last year, positioning us well for our fall selling season. This quarter, we were also able to divert some operating expense savings to develop client testimonial videos and increase advertising to support our fall selling season and our retention campaign. These videos captured the emotion we were hoping for demonstrating the value of a sophisticated HR function in a crisis. We were also able to continue important technology development beyond responding to the many compliance needs that emerged earlier this year. We are extending our people analytics platform, which has been very well received by our mid-market and enterprise clients to our emerging growth segment just in time for our critical renewal period. We are continuing to make strides improving Insperity Premier, our proprietary human capital management system, rolling out a new time and attendance user interface and using new behavioral analytics tool to guide roadmaps making Premiere easier and more efficient for clients. The bottom line for the third quarter was that we experienced the ideal combination of higher volume and pricing and lower direct and operating costs. Each of these elements contributed to our strong outperformance in the quarter. So, we have responded quickly and effectively to the unusual events we've experienced in 2020, meeting client needs and achieving better than expected growth and profitability. We've also kept our eye on the long-term making progress on many important initiatives. Now that we have three quarters under our belt and our estimate for Q4, we can evaluate how our business model has reacted during the pandemic. When the pandemic hit, we did not expect our business model would have the potential to generate double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA that we have within the guidance we're providing today. The effects for the pandemic on our business model ran the full gamut from obvious expected negative to completely unexpected positive. It's worth taking a moment to summarize these factors that drive the model since as we all know too well, this pandemic is not over and it appears the effects will carry into 2021. For example, one would think a pandemic a health issue would increase health costs. However, what we've seen is that rising COVID cases created the need to protect hospital capacity and limit elective procedures, which combined with people's behavioral tendency to avoid hospitals as much as possible. Healthcare expenses have actually declined significantly in the short-term. Longer term healthcare costs may be elevated due to the deferral of care or cost associated with treatment of COVID or vaccines. So, this point we have not seen these costs increases and actually increase the overall trend as other offsets like telemedicine and some level of deferrals care continues. In addition, many experts, including the CDC are anticipating that the precautions currently being taken to reduce the spread of COVID could substantially reduce the incident of flu this year. An obvious negative factor we experienced from the pandemic related to lockdown was the economic effect on small and medium sized businesses, which affects us in the form of layoffs in our client base. We saw a drop in paid worksite employees of approximately 6% in two months, followed by a steady rebound over the following four months supported by fiscal stimulus and easing restrictions. In retrospect, the CARES Act is specifically the Paycheck Protection Program was effective in mitigating some level of layoffs. Further, we believe our quick and effective support of our clients to take advantage of these programs played a role in fewer layoffs occurring and a faster rebound. The effects of the shutdown also highlighted one specific advantage in our business model, which is our client selection strategy. Due to our risk-based client selection process we have a very small percentage of our client base in industries most affected by the pandemic and shutdown such as entertainment, hospitality, travel, and restaurants. Another surprise somewhat due to our client selection strategy has been the nominal business closings we have experienced in our client base. Although, we expected to see an increase our strategy of targeting the best, small and mid sized businesses across a wide range of industries proved to provide some insulation from this factor as we saw no significant increase in business failures. Another dramatic effect we experienced was the increased workload as many issues arising from the pandemic landed in the HR department. As I mentioned, last quarter, client interactions increased 300% and the average length of time of these interactions doubled. This five fold increase in workload has diminished somewhat, but remains elevated. On the flip side, lockdowns led to working from home. In our case, this resulted in improved productivity and our dedicated staff performed heroically in response to the increased demand for our services. Our experience leads us to believe working from home is effective for ongoing routine activities. However, innovation and collaboration may suffer in the longer term. A hybrid scenario of working from home and coming into the office may provide optimal productivity, efficiency, and innovation going forward. Another upside in our model from the lockdowns and work-from-home environment across our client base is a substantial decrease in the incident rate of workers' compensation claims. This impact is yet to be reflected in our costs, but -- and should benefit future periods to some degree. However, these lower costs maybe offset by COVID-related claims that may be covered by workers' compensation in some states. An additional upside surprise to me has been our effectiveness continuing to sell in a virtual environment, with a service offering as comprehensive and complex as ours. We now know the range of sales efficiency under these conditions. And as we integrate face-to-face meetings back into the mix, we could see a longer term efficiency gain. One final observation is the success we've had during the pandemic in retaining clients, even as financial considerations could prevailed on our client base. Our services simply were invaluable and clients have continued our premium services despite the need to tighten their belts. So now that we have a better understanding of the factors driving our business model during a pandemic, what does that mean as we look ahead to 2021? Well, first, it means planning will be independent -- will be dependent on these factors and drivers that are likely to ebb and flow based upon the state of the pandemic. We will be monitoring these new inputs very closely and we'll finalize a budget later than usual to include the most recent information. Making estimates at an early stage makes little sense in view of the number and range of possibilities, especially when considering the timing and degree of severity of the pandemic or the actions that may occur to mitigate its effects. For example, COVID cases are on the rise now, but one or more vaccines may be available by 2021 or an anticipated economic downturn from additional lockdowns may occur. Additionally, small businesses may be bolstered by additional fiscal stimulus. What we have learned is there are many moving parts and offsets in our business model in this environment. If the pandemic intensifies, our direct cost may be below our historical trends as we experienced this year, but growth may suffer. Conversely, if the pandemic is mitigated or under control, direct cost may be elevated, but growth may accelerate as an offset. What I do know with a degree of certainty today is we have an amazing organization, with the necessary curiosity and brainpower to provide the agility and capability to manage through a crisis and come out with impressive results for shareholders, clients, and other stakeholders. This year, we have demonstrated the depth and breadth of our competence and level of care for our clients to execute on matters within our control, along with an inspiring ingenuity and resourcefulness to respond to unexpected events. We are certainly pleased with our 2020 results today, and our outlook for the balance of the year. And we look ahead with confidence in the future, whatever we face next year. This time, I'd like to pass the call back to Doug.