David Cramer
Analyst · UBS. Please proceed.
Yeah, great. Thanks for joining. Good question. I think 2024, I think we said, according to, you're already looking at our statistics and so forth, I think we said certainly we were right around 3.5% for 2024. I think as you go into 2025 and as we're heading to 2027, I think you see about 50 base point to 100 base point improvement, '25 to '26, so maybe if '24 is 3.5%, maybe '25 is 3%, and then you're down to maybe 2%, 2.5% in '26, and then down to 2% in 2027 is how we're thinking about it. Certainly time is what has to happen here around absorption of what's already been delivered and what will be delivered. We talk a lot about markets like Phoenix and Atlanta, which have been very tough markets for us recently, and even the west coast of Florida. The new supply deliveries are coming down, which is a good thing, but it will take time to absorb what was built, and I think that's as we look at it, as we look at how we want to operate in those markets and how aggressive we want to be in those markets, it's just a pure fact that until this new supply gets absorbed and that takes time to absorb, material movements in those markets are going to be challenging. The good news is new supply is coming down, but we just have to absorb what is already out there today. A good example of that would be, if you look back at our history, Portland is a market we talked about for a number of years. A lot of supply brought in in '18, '19, and '20, and now that the new supply has really gone down to almost not very much being delivered at all, the strength of Portland and the stability of Portland around rates and around occupancy, and we've gone through the worst of it is starting to come back on the other side. I think that's a good reference point as you think about what supply can do to a market and then just working your way out of it.