David W. Crane
Analyst · UBS
Thank you, Chad, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined here by Mauricio Gutierrez, our Chief Operating Officer; and Kirk Andrews, our Chief Financial Officer. They will both be giving part to the presentation as usual. I'm also joined by Chris Moser, who runs Commercial Operations for the company; and Elizabeth Killinger, who's responsible for our Retail business for all of our brands, and both of them will be available to answer any questions that you might have. I'd like to start on Slide 3 by giving a quick -- my quick take on our second quarter performance. I'm going to be quick about it because both Kirk and Mauricio will be discussing these results in more detail, but also because I want to spend a little more of my allotted time than usual on the strategic positioning of NRG going forward. I'm choosing this opportunity to talk about strategy because some of our most recent developments in our business provide a good context for how we think about the plentiful value-creating growth opportunities that we see in front of us and what is sometimes loosely called the alternative energy sector at a time when we see weakening long-term fundamentals in our traditional, conventional generation grid-based business. But first, let me start by focusing on our performance year-to-date. Never before in my 11 years at NRG do I recall a first half of the year where we were so whipsawed by the weather. A severely cold winter followed by a summer, which, to date, through the second quarter and so far into the third quarter, has been completely devoid of extreme weather in any of our core markets. Fortunately, to some degree, our diversification away from being exclusively a wholesale generator, first, into retail and then into clean energy, has increased the resilience of our earnings in the face of mild weather and tepid wholesale electricity demand. Under these circumstances, I am very pleased with the $671 million of adjusted EBITDA that we are reporting for the second quarter and the $1.487 billion of EBITDA year-to-date. As this summer has so far failed to materialize in the forward commodity prices affecting our wholesale generation business have weakened, NRG share price in recent weeks has dropped 20%, reflecting the continued strong correlation between NRG share price and natural gas prices. At the same time that NRG's stock prices dropped under the pressure of weakening commodity prices, NRG Yield has stood strong with the share price well more than 100% above the price that it IPO-ed at just 12 months ago. As NRG stock has dropped, NRG Yield, in just the past 2 weeks, has gone to market with 2 vastly oversubscribed capital market issues, a 10-year green bond that priced at 5 3/8% and upsize due to market demand and a secondary equity issue that priced at $54 a share, even though the stock had closed at under $52 a share at the beginning of the day of announcement. NRG Yield, of course, consists of contracted and regulated assets not subject to commodity price risk. But for this purpose, what interests me is that many of the assets of NRG Yield had existed within NRG for many years. Before Yield, the value of our contracted assets has never been recognized by the Street as they were buried under the weight of close to 50,000 megawatts of wholesale generation assets that were subject to merchant price exposure. Now as we look at the exciting opportunities that present themselves to us outside of the merchant generation space, we are intent on taking the first step to duplicating the success of NRG Yield with the other high-growth segments of our business. If you would turn to Slide 4, you will see how we are thinking about NRG and our businesses going forward with, from the shareholder's perspective, as many as 6 distinct value propositions, each with exciting growth opportunities of its own, each with a focused management team dedicated to win in its own competitive environment and each, ultimately and down the road a bit, a candidate for value recognition on Wall Street in the same manner as NRG Yield. We call this new structure the NRG Group of Companies, and in shorthand, the 3 plus 2 plus 1 structure, to reflect the fact that we are organizing into 3 main businesses called NRG Business, NRG Home and NRG Renew, which are differentiated from each other principally by the nature of the energy consumer that they each serve. The way energy is procured at the office is obviously quite different from the way it is procured at the home. The 2 and the 3 plus 2 plus 1 represents the 2 special purpose companies, Petra Nova and eVgo, that have very distinct businesses, capital structures and technological bases, but also have symbiotic connections to our 3 core businesses. In the case of Petra Nova, through turning our coal plants' greatest liability, their carbon emissions, into a highly profitable revenue-generating asset, and in the case of eVgo, by creating a legion of forward-leaning, clean transportation enthusiasts into end-use energy consumers aware of, and hopefully, loyal to NRG. The 1 and the 3 plus 2 plus 1, obviously, is NRG Yield, which already has its distinct identity and value proposition on Wall Street. NRG Yield going forward is a critical member of the group in enabling and enhancing the value of all the 5 companies by providing a highly competitive source of capital for their contracted assets. Today, that means NRG Yield acquires from NRG contracted, combined cycle assets, opportunities in our new structure, which will arise through NRG Business, and also utility scale renewable projects, opportunities in the new structure that would arise through NRG Renew. But as we go forward, we expect to offer NRG Yield an even broader range of assets benefiting from long-term contracts and arising, not only out of NRG Business and NRG Renew, but also possibly out of NRG Home or even NRG Petra Nova. This, of course, would be in addition to NRG Yield having continued success in its own third-party acquisitions, which has the advantage of providing enhanced cash distributions back to NRG. There is more about this new structure that can be illustrated on this Slide 4 or installed in the time I have available, so I'm going to concentrate my remaining time today with a brief explanation of NRG Home and NRG Petra Nova. As to the other 4 companies and the full rationale behind the totality of this reorganization, we will lay that out for you in considerable detail over the coming months. Let's start with NRG Home on Slide 5. At NRG, our Retail businesses have been working for some time to differentiate themselves, first, through offering renewable energy at Green Mountain, through offering affinity programs at NRG Plus. And most recently, our focus has been on becoming a key player inside the smart interconnected home of the future. And with the formation of NRG Home, we aim to focus on this objective all that much harder. NRG Home, in short, is going to combine under one roof the almost 3 million retail customers currently served through all of NRG's retail brand, with our much smaller but fast-growing residential solar company, NRG Home Solar, in order to realize the obvious synergistic benefits that each can bring to the other and to capture the sustained double-digit growth that we believe will be realized by the top tier companies in the residential solar space, as the American public increasingly embraces the idea that they can make a difference in the race to the clean energy economy with their individual energy decision-making. Even though as depicted by the name, the initial focus of NRG Home will be on bringing seamless energy solutions, both systemwide solutions and distributed solutions, into the stationary environment of the home. NRG Home will also be focused, as Reliant already has begun to do, on bringing mobile and clean energy solutions to the end-use energy consumer with the ultimate goal for us being wherever you are, whatever you are doing, for however how long you are doing it. And without regard to whether you are able to tether yourself to an electric outlet through an electric cord, we want to be your energy supplier. You should expect to hear a lot more about this aspect of NRG Home in the weeks and months to come. Now turning to Slide 6 and shifting gears, let me turn your attention from the end-use energy consumer end of our growth opportunity spectrum back to the other end of the spectrum, wholesale generation, and specifically, the future of big, solid fuel-fired power station that represent the backbone of both NRG and of the status quo grid-centric hub-and-spoke power system that Americans have relied on since the 1930s. When it comes to conventional utility scale generation, a lot of the trends are not good. Since electricity remains the only commodity that cannot be stored, wholesale generation is, at its core, a primitively basic business completely ruled by supply and demand fundamentals. Rebecca Smith recently reported a front-page story in the Wall Street Journal about the rupturing of the historic correlation in the United States between GDP growth and electricity demand growth, quoting the CEO of AEP as referring to this as the lost decade of electricity demand growth. Her article focuses on the fact that the utility business model is under strain because it is entirely dependent on more or less continuous demand growth in order to cover the ever-rising cost of operating and maintaining the grid. What her article did not mention, but is obviously also true, is that while the long-term supply-demand wholesale fundamentals and trends paint a bleak picture for vertically integrated utilities, the same future is bleaker still for the purer wholesale IPPs, which face the same weak fundamentals but lack the iron dome of rate-based regulation protection that covers the investor-owned utilities. On top of the challenge of weak long-term supply-demand trends, there is the particular challenge to coal plants raised by potential environmental regulation. While it is early days yet in the promulgation of greenhouse gas regulations by the EPA from stationary sources, the long-term trend towards a carbon-constrained world is clear. And to state the obvious, that trend is commonly perceived as not being good for coal plants, and to be equally obvious, at NRG, we own a lot of coal plants. However, if we can turn carbon emissions from a long-term liability into a high-margin, free cash flow generative, commodity risk-mitigating, long-term assets, then we will have accomplished quite a bit in terms of enhancing the longevity and the value of our coal-fired fleet. This is exactly why we are investing $300 million of NRG cash and in-kind equity in the WA Parish carbon capture to enhance oil recovery project. The Parish project, first and foremost, is a carbon monetization play. In this case, we monetize through oil. Our economic return will be a function of the increased productivity of the carbon-flooded field times the realizable price of the oil produced. NRG, which currently has minimal commodity price exposure to crude oil, gets paid through the oil sales with the current forward price curve, providing sufficient cushion against an oil price downdraft, as depicted in the bottom right of this Slide 6. The secondary benefit of the Parish project, obviously, is that it is a highly effective carbon hedge and the way we think about that is shown on the upper right portion of Slide 6. If and when a carbon price is imposed, the impact on Parish will be to reduce the oil price necessary for NRG to earn its minimally acceptable equity return on the project. But in light of the problems and costs -- turn to Slide 7. In light of the problems and cost overruns at other carbon capture projects, we are being asked, what about the risk? The key features of the Petra Nova project, as depicted on Slide 7, that distinguish it from the 2 other high-profile CCS projects built in recent years in Indiana and Mississippi is that the Parish project involves more established post-combustion carbon capture technology rather than precombustion IGCC technology. And the Parish project makes no attempt to alter the steam balance of the existing coal plant to provide energy for the carbon separation process. Instead, at Parish, steam for the process will be provided by a dedicated gas-fired steam generator. And that is why Parish is actually a gas-to-oil price arbitrage play rather than a coal-to-oil project. Finally, what distinguishes Parish from the projects in Indiana and Mississippi, which were both built by rate-based utilities, is that Parish is structured on classic project finance terms, with the various risks of the project warned by the partner best able to mitigate them. The technology and EPC risk of the project, in particular, is borne by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries under a fixed price, fixed schedule guaranteed performance contract. We have a very high degree of confidence in MHI and their technology, which underpins our investment in this project. In short, our Wholesale and our EPC group are very focused on making the Parish project a success, not only because it represents a sizable investment for NRG, but also because harnessing the potential of this technology is likely to be the key to the long-term longevity of our coal plants in a world where electric demand is tepid and carbon constraints, in the form of carbon pricing, are an ever-growing risk. So let me conclude my part of the presentation on Slide 8 with a few bullet points. First, our core businesses have executed superbly in the first half of the year, with solid first half financial results to show for effort. But in this, the commodity end of our business, we remain subject to the vicissitudes of the weather. Second, as we have said repeatedly over the past few years, ever since the Great Recession in fact, we see the potential for value creation in our space swinging from the wholesale side to serving the end-use energy customer, and today, NRG is taking the next big step in organizing ourselves in a manner that gives us the best chance to capture that opportunity to the maximum of our potential. Third, our sector, which is already modestly carbon constrained on the regional level, is certain -- eventually to become more carbon-constrained, and we are taking affirmative steps now not only to prepare for it, but to profit from it. And fourth, and while I did not have the time to discuss this in my comments today, the leading corporations of our time, like Unilever, all have made major commitments to sustainable behavior, including mass adoption of clean energy, and NRG is very well positioned to assist these companies in achieving their global sustainability goals. And fifth and finally, we applaud the success of NRG Yield, which continues to serve as a critical cost of capital competitive advantage for the NRG Group, and we will continue to act to ensure that NRG Yield remains the premium company in the emerging class of publicly traded yield vehicles. The future indeed is bright for NRG. So with that, I'll turn it over to Mauricio.