David W. Crane
Analyst · Keith Stanley, representing Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Chad, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined on this call, as usual, by Mauricio Gutierrez, our Chief Operating Officer; and Kirk Andrews, our Chief Financial Officer, and both of them will be giving part of the presentation. We're also joined in Princeton by Chris Moser who runs our commercial operations; Elizabeth Killinger, who's responsible for our Texas Retail Business; and Jim Steffes, who runs our Northeast Retail Business. And Chris, Elizabeth and Jim will all be available to answer any specific questions that you have about their areas of our business. And so let me get right into this topic at hand and if you're following along with the presentation, this would be on Slide 3. Based on our financial performance through the first 6 months of 2013 and the mild weather and subdued wholesale prices that have gripped Texas in the critical weeks of mid-summer that have ensued since the end of the second quarter, we are compelled today to reduce our financial guidance for full year 2013 adjusted EBITDA by 3% at the bottom end of the range and 4% at the top end of the range. This is, of course, very disappointing to me because it raises a real possibility that for the first time since we started giving guidance as a range several years ago, we may end the year below the range of our original expectations. Before explaining the negative drivers which have gotten us to this point, let me emphasize on behalf of all NRG management that finishing the year within our original guidance range is a streak that none of us want to see broken. And I want to assure that we are doing everything we can prudently do between now and the end of the year to get our financial performance back within the original range. In fact, this is a uniquely unusual earnings call for me. In fact, it's my 39th quarterly earnings call before -- as CEO of NRG. Twice before, in the second quarter of 2005 and the third quarter of 2011, to be specific, we have announced financial results which disappointed me, and in both cases, the poor financial results were driven by mediocre-to-bad operational performance. For this, the second quarter of 2013, the situation is different. While our financial performance has not met expectations, either yours or mine, to be candid, I can't say that, overall, I am displeased with the company's operational performance. Certainly, there have been specific operational disappointments that have contributed to our year-to-date shortfall: the extended forced outage at STP2 this spring, the losses attributed to our commercial optimization activities discussed last quarter, the projected delay in the completion of one of our construction projects. But overall, I'm quite proud of our people's performance across the entirety of the company in the first 6 months of 2013. In terms of what we can control, we have had many more wins so far this year than we have had losses. The main culprit driving 2013 soft year-to-date financial results has been a factor beyond our control, which obviously is the Texas summer weather. The weather, which, until this week at least, had been unusually mild by Texas standards, has impacted our volumetric sales at both our Wholesale and Retail businesses, leading to disappointing overall results year-to-date. Plus the mild weather effectively has eliminated the short-term risk of scarcity pricing, which has in turn led to a decline in the forward curve, which obviously has had a negative impact on our assessment of the earnings power of our Texas fleet over the balance of the year. Just as we finally did get some heat in Texas, in fact, Wednesday was the third-highest load demand day on record in Texas and that's only by a few days in August of 2011. But one day does not a season make and the heat will have to occur on a more consistent basis if we are to see more goals [ph] in the market driving up the prices in the foreign market. I will say this, though: The conditions that we experienced this week, high load and low wholesale prices, explain why we are pleased to have a robust wholesale business in Texas -- I mean, I'm sorry, robust retail business in Texas. Anyway, this is enough from me, at least about the weather. It is what it is and we are doing our best to achieve the best financial performance possible in the current commodity price environment. If there is any silver lining in this situation, it is that in 2014, we will be in a much better position to reap the benefit of our long-term strategic plan to diversify our financial performance away from 100% dependence on cyclical commodity risk into a broader and more resilient set of revenue streams, cost savings and cost savings on operational improvements. The EBITDA and free cash flow synergy benefits arising out of the GenOn transaction will be realized on a full year basis in 2014. The timely completion during 2013 of virtually the entirety of our current construction program, including both the conventional and the large-scale solar projects, means that our new builds will contribute in 2014 on a full year basis as well. The additional marketing and customer acquisition spending in the Retail end of our business in 2013 is resulting in an expanded retail customer base that should benefit us financially in 2014 and beyond. These actions and more, I believe, enhance NRG's competitive positioning and our earnings power going forward. So turning to Slide 4, a slide you have come to be familiar with. I'd like to report on the current status of the GenOn integration, which currently is in full tilt. Of course, you are very focused on the financial impact of the integration, which I have a report on here, and I'm pleased to report in that regard that we have identified and secured another $50 million of annual cost synergies, raising that number from $200 million to $250 million per year. And as with all the cost synergies arising out of the GenOn transaction, it will be achieved and have a full year effect by January 1, 2014. The integration numbers are important. They are gratifying in that they have exceeded all of our expectations financially. But I want to make sure that our focus on them does not obscure the fact that achieving this result represents an enormous amount of hard work very capably done by professionals throughout our organization, including all aspects of our plant operations group, as well as by our IT group, HR, accounting, tax, treasury, supply chain management and other key functional and corporate support teams. It also obscures the fact that our second joint objective for our GenOn integration, beyond achieving cost savings, was to create an operation that was not only bigger but also better in every aspect of our processes, practices and technology. I want to let you know that we were well on our way to achieving this joint objective, and I want to thank Anne Cleary, our Chief Integration Officer, and the hundreds of employees that are focused and continue to do so diligently, executing the integration activities and synergy recognition that we have committed to you. We are on track to finish the integration strong in 2013, so as I've said before, we can recognize the fruits of our labor in 2014 and beyond. Another area of intense focus for our company in 2013 is the completion of our $5 billion construction program; it is reported on Slide 5. As you can readily see from the abundance of green checks and green circles on the slide, we are almost done and the record of an on-time, on-budget completion achieved by our EPC group, led by Ben Trammell, is exemplary. Almost all of our new units, whether fossil or conventional, are now in commercial operation and operating well in the early going. Even our 2 giant solar PV projects, CVSR and Agua Caliente, which are listed here as still in construction, are, for the most part, actually in commercial operation since those 2 plants are divided into blocks that are handed over into commercial operation when they are ready. Indeed, over 265 megawatts of the aggregate 398 megawatts of those 2 units are already fully operational. Our one project that has slid in respect of its completion date is Ivanpah where 2 of the 3 units have slid by roughly 1 quarter into the fourth quarter this year. At this point, all 3 units of Ivanpah are at or very near physically complete and the multistage commissioning process has begun. Together with our partners and our contractors, we are moving through the commissioning process deliberately and thoroughly to ensure that it is done right. We are increasingly confident that this groundbreaking solar thermal project is going to be a big success when it achieves commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2013. Before I conclude, I want to touch upon the topic of NRG Yield as the importance of NRG Yield and its successful reception by the market is just too important to NRG financially and strategically to be overlooked. As depicted on Slide 6, NRG Yield significantly enhances our strategic competitiveness in 2 of our 3 critical business areas. And within those 2 areas, NRG Yield benefits both our intrinsic green and brownfield development efforts and our ability to grow extrinsically by improving our ability to acquire suitable assets at value. This is a very important development in terms of our growth aspirations for our renewable business because at long last, there are signs that the big strategic players in our industry are awakening from their long slumber and finally recognizing both the opportunity and the risk to them that solar represents. And some of them are trying to get active with their lower cost of capital in acquiring contracted solar assets. NRG Yield goes a long way to reducing or eliminating our cost of capital disadvantage to them, making it possible for us to continue to win projects and opportunities based on our greater nimbleness and understanding of the renewable space and particularly, the solar business. Actually, I'm sure everyone on the call recognizes the importance of NRG Yield to our renewable business, which has always been a business driven by renewable portfolio standards and long-term offtake agreements with load-serving entities. What is a little bit less obvious is the importance of NRG Yield to our growth aspirations for our conventional generation business. In the low gas price environment that exists, it's nearly impossible to justify the construction of new capacity on a merchant basis. As the governors of various states consider how they're going to replace the wave of generation capacity that will be retired over the next few years as a result of either economic stress or environmental obsolescence, they are increasingly reaching the conclusion that they need to offer some sort of state-sponsored long-term offtake agreement even for conventional new builds. NRG has the best brownfield sites and the best locations on the grid with the technical expertise and commercial savvy to get these projects filled. But what we lack before NRG Yield was a competitive cost of capital for assets that do not bear commodity price risk. And now we have that. So in summary. If you consider the message contained within my previous 3 slides: the successful integration of GenOn that has outstripped everyone's financials expectations in terms of synergy factor; a massive construction program that has been close to perfectly executed and is now almost completed; and an effective execution of NRG Yield vehicle IPO that has effectively addressed or at least mitigated both our cost of capital issue and our tax benefit optimization issue in respect of our renewable progress. On the progress that's been made by my colleagues at NRG on all of these 3 fronts in the second quarter of 2013, hopefully, you can understand how my disappointment in our financial performance year-to-date has been tempered by my gratitude to my colleagues for advancing the longer-term interest of our company on the 3 integration, construction and optimization initiatives described above. Let me conclude, actually, on a personal note. As I alluded to earlier, I'm now approaching the 10th anniversary of my tenure at NRG, which is not particularly significant to any of you other than it means that the initial sign-on grant of NRG stock options that I received in 2003 expire this year. As such, I want to alert you that over the next few months, in the rare instance when we are not in a closed period for trading purposes, I plan to take steps to convert a modest portion of my overall holdings in NRG stock to other investments, which only will be the second time I have taken such an action in my 10 years at NRG. Even after that partial divestment, I will hold NRG stock well in excess of 10x my paid salary, which exceeds the 6x requirement imposed by the NRG Board of Directors, and I will continue to hold an amount far in excess of the required amount for the full extent of my duration in NRG. I tell you this now for 2 reasons: first, to assure you that there are no surprises with respect to my personal investment decision-making that might raise questions in your mind about my commitment to the success of NRG; and two, to reassure you that in no way does my partial sell-down indicate a pessimistic point of view on my part about the prospects for NRG stock price appreciation. Notwithstanding the challenges of the present commodity environment, I remain very bullish on NRG's prospects to flourish over the short to medium term. Given the relative strength of NRG's financial performance, even now, 4 full years into the commodity price downcycle, I can only imagine how strong we will be when the cycle turns around as it inevitably will do. And when it does, I expect to be there to benefit from it as a major individual shareholder in NRG. So now, I'd like to turn it over to Mauricio.