David W. Crane
Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co
Thank you, Chad, and good morning to everyone. I'm joined here today by Mauricio Gutierrez, the company's Chief Operating Officer; and Kirk Andrews, the company's Chief Financial Officer. They will both be giving part of this presentation and be available for questions thereafter. Also joining us, some other NRG executives who will be available to answer your questions: Anne Cleary, the company's Chief Integration Officer; Chris Moser, who runs the company's Commercial Operations, including our Trading; and Elizabeth Killinger, who runs Retail for us in Texas; and Jim Steffes, who runs Retail for us in the Northeast United States. So let me begin by recognizing that certain dichotomies exist between what we typically focus on during this earnings call and what we, NRG management, concentrate on while conducting the company's day-to-day business. Chief of these dichotomies is the one that exists around personal safety. While safety is not the focus of the financial community, it's very much our focus. Indeed, for NRG management, it is our primary focus. As such, I'm pleased to report today that in 2012, NRG achieved the best safety performance record in its history, a 0.52 OSHA recordable rate with not a single life-altering injury. This performance places us well within the top decile of our industry and is a testament to the hard work and professionalism of NRG's now 8,000 employees. To put this achievement into a historical context, in 2004, my first full year here at NRG, our OSHA recordable rate was 4.48, which was itself significantly down from a rate of 6.05, which was what the company achieved in 2003, the year before I came here. So having brought the rate down over 90% in 2003 to 0.52 in 2012 is extremely noteworthy. So I want to start by using this public forum to congratulate the men and women of NRG on an absolutely stellar safety performance in 2012. Now as we turn to 2012 financial performance, I am very pleased with our overall performance in a year when our fundamental commodities were under nearly constant bearish pressure, nor did the weather give us much upside, even in terms of the Northeast winter or the Texas summer. Not notwithstanding the moderate weather that we experienced in 2012, for NRG, financially, the formula remained the same in 2012. Solid EBITDA with a healthy contribution from retail and a growing contribution from solar, plus robust free cash flow before growth. We also made significant strides in 2012 across our three-part strategic platform of enhance generation, expand retail and go green. I'll hit the highlights in each of these 3 areas on subsequent slides. But first, I want to focus for a moment on an achievement, which has received relatively little public comment today, and that is the actions taken around our Louisiana portfolio in 2012. A decade-long extension to a couple of critical co-op contracts; a constructive settlement with the EPA of long-standing NSR litigation relating to Big Cajun II; and the reassessment of the company's overall environmental spend in light of currently applicable environmental and economic factors, which has enabled us to reduce our public estimate of our future overall spend as a company on environmental CapEx by over $100 million. This favorable outcome was a result of the coordinated efforts spearheaded by our Louisiana management team under the leadership of our Gulf regional organization. Now turning to Slide 4, there are 2 points here. The first point is that we, in NRG management, have long objected to the view that our stock is just a proxy for long-term natural gas prices. Clearly in the past, now and into the foreseeable future, NRG will do better in a higher natural gas price environment than in a low natural gas price environment. But our goal as a management team has been to create a business model that allows NRG not only to survive, but also to flourish no matter what the price of natural gas might be from time to time. We have made significant strides in that regard, and it seems that the separation of our stock price performance from natural gas prices in the second half of 2012 might suggest that the market is coming to believe it as well. My second point on this slide, which is obvious from the chart on Slide 4, is that 2012 was not an evenly paced year for the company. We clearly gained momentum during the second half of the year, and we are focused right now, hard on maintaining and accelerating that momentum in 2013 as we springboard off the forceful and expedited implementation of the GenOn integration. In that regard, turning to Slide 5, under Ann Cleary's leadership, our integration effort has jumped off to a great start. Just 8 weeks into the integration, our confidence level on what we can achieve could not be higher. And as a result, we are pleased to announce an increase in our overall cost synergy target arising out of this combination from $175 million to $185 million. 52% of our new revised target run rate for total cost synergies already has been captured, and that's $97 million a year. Plus, over 90% of our balance sheet synergies, representing an additional $93 million a year, already has been put in place. So we are well on our way to delivering what we've promised. As to what we have not yet promised, we have not yet revised our estimate of the operational synergies that we expect to be able to achieve as a result of operating the generating assets of classic NRG and the former GenOn plants as one combined fleet. I want to assure you that such work is ongoing at a very granular level across all the plants now in our system. As soon as we have firmed up the commercial and technological viability of our asset management plan around the entire set of generation assets, we will inform you of what we think we can achieve in regards to increased operational synergies, the cost to achieve these synergies and how long it will take us to achieve them. At this point, it is still too early for me to be specific, but I continue to believe that the $25 million a year estimate is quite conservative. Now turning to Slide 6. While we obviously are focused as a company on the GenOn integration at the corporate level and on the wholesale side of the business, there are significant movement underway within NRG's retail companies to make sure we continue to grow our retail businesses in a way that enhances shareholder value, which means to us, profitable and intelligent growth with the key wholesale supplier risk inherent in the retail business covered or partially covered by our own wholesale supply. To do this, we have reorganized our multi-brand strategy, principally on geographic lines, with Elizabeth Killinger of Reliant assuming all responsibility for NRG Retail in Texas; and Jim Steffes at the Green Mountain, assuming responsibility for all NRG retail in the Northeast United States. For each of our retail leaders, one of their many key objectives for 2013 will be to more closely integrate new clean energy products and services of the type -- briefly described near the bottom of Slide 6, into their conventional grid-based retail business. We already have a head start in this regard with what Reliant already has accomplished with smart energy products and services for the home, and we believe an assertive expansion of these clean energy products and services aimed at the end-use energy consumer and the seamless integration of them into a conventional retail offering of system power will have multiple benefits. It will differentiate our retail value proposition, promote customer retention and act as its own distinct and attractive sales channel. I think we will be able to report on very positive developments in the retail space by the end of 2013. Now turning to Slide 7. The other major area of management focus, which you should be tracking, is our company's very substantial construction program. For the last couple of years, we have carried forward a multibillion-dollar construction program. From your perspective to date, there has been little to show for in terms of current EBITDA contribution. In 2013 and 2014, our construction program bears fruit in a significant way. In 2013, we expect over 2,000 megawatts of utility scale conventional and solar generation to come online. These projects should generate over $500 million in incremental EBITDA, almost all of which is fully contracted. So far, all of these projects are performing fully or close to fully in line with our expectations with respect to both time and schedule. You will be hearing more from us as meaningful milestones are achieved in our construction program in the months to come. Beyond these projects, we continue to make substantial investment in a robust development program aimed at both revitalizing our conventional fleet in key locations and continuing the attractive growth of our industry-leading solar portfolio. With respect to the latter, we have over 900 megawatts of mid- to late-stage Tier 2 utility scale solar projects in development in key markets across the United States, 72 megawatts of which are already under contract. We also see and are pursuing significantly sized solar development programs at the sub-utility scale level in industry, commercial and arising out of government procurement. Now turning to Slide 8 and to capital allocation, which is the fourth part of NRG strategy for value-enhancing growth. As mentioned previously, the company stands to be substantially free cash flow positive both in 2013 and 2014, notwithstanding the continued weakness of the underlying gas price fundamentals, and that free cash flow generation will add to the cash already on NRG's balance sheet, which we already have acknowledged as liquidity in excess of current need. Without undermining our eternal and unyielding commitment to prudent balance sheet management, or PBSM, as it's referred to in the upper part of this slide, we are now in a position to consider our options with respect to the optimization of your capital without the artificial constraints imposed in previous years upon us by various restricted payment baskets. You will note, and Kirk will elaborate further, that as a first salvo in this regard, we have chosen to do 2 things: An increase in our annual dividend on common stock back to a level, which approximates 2% per year, the average dividend yield of the S&P 500; plus a buyback of $200 million worth of common stock. Together, these 2 actions represent a return to shareholders of close to 5% of our market capitalization. What we hope we have accomplished with these 2 actions is first, having initiated the common dividend just last year. This year, we are acknowledging the principle that the dividend should grow over time. And second, with the share buyback, that we will not sit indefinitely on all of our excess capital. We see a lot of opportunities across our wholesale to retail business footprint within our industry and with our industry in a considerable state of flux with our own internal development opportunities and with the clean energy industry still struggling to figure out where it fits with the conventional business. We are highly confident we can deploy the company's capital in a way that generates cash, outearns our own cost of capital and enhances the strength of our overall asset portfolio and business model going forward. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mauricio