John A. Roush
Analyst · Lee Jagoda with CJS Securities
Yes, absolutely. So, I mean if you were to take in sort of, say, our sequential picture, Q2, Q3, Q4, we don’t really see from customers that there’s been a noticeable change in the condition. Okay, there is some fluctuations in our actual results that probably has more to do with specific projects. As we indicated, we had a kind of a significant project we did in the data storage market with encoders and so that create a dynamic.
But in general if you average across all of that, customers are telling us, it’s kind of bouncing along the bottom that there’s not been a catalyst for a recovery. The problem was people thought there would be recovery. At this time a year ago, exiting 2011 and heading into 2012, customers across the board were saying we’re in this down cycle that began around the time the U.S. downgraded, got downgraded. But they thought it would recover. Nobody thought this was going to be a weak market all the way through 2012.
Our Spindle customers told us that, our scanning customers, our encoder guys, some of the laser guys all said this is going to get better, and then it didn’t happen, right. What we’ve seen is basically just a kind of continued stagnant market. So I think the customers got earned once where they were bullish and said this is going to resolve itself and didn’t. So now you almost have the opposite behavior. But I think customers are being very conservative and very cautious and which is causing us to do that. The cycle is going to turn at some point, but nobody wants to be out there just sort of forecasting that it will turn at some point when you have no clear evidence it will.
We have not seen particularly any businesses that are starting to run very favorable in book-bill on a sustained basis, or that you can clearly discern an upward trend that is sustaining itself. We have these pockets, so the CO2 laser was up, but then it’s sequentially trending a little bit back down in Q4. Encoders went up, it’s trending back down. The fiber laser is consistently trending up, but that’s a kind of a secular trend from that technology. So I see it as a steady picture, we will look and we study the data all the time, we’ve gone back and looked at when things started to come out of the cycle, in the 2009 into 2010 timeframe, we looked at our own data and a lot of the other peer companies. And when this thing started to turn it happened pretty quickly, and pretty dramatically. But it was like you couldn’t necessarily see it coming a long time in advance.