Earnings Labs

NOV Inc. (NOV)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 30, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the second quarter financial results earnings call. My name is Larissa, and I'll be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Loren Singletary, Vice President of Investor and Industry Relations. Mr. Singletary, you may begin.

Loren Singletary

Analyst

Thank you, Larissa, and welcome, everyone, to the National Oilwell Varco Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. With me today is Pete Miller, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Clay Williams, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jeremy Thigpen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin this discussion of National Oilwell Varco's financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2013, please note that some of the statements we make during this call may contain forecasts, projections and estimates, including, but not limited to, comments about our outlook for the company's business. These are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws based on limited information as of today, which is subject to change. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. No one should assume that these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the quarter or later in the year. I refer you to the latest Forms 10-K and 10-Q National Oilwell Varco has on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the major risk factors affecting our business. Further information regarding these, as well as supplemental financial and operating information, may be found within our press release on our website at www.nov.com or in our filings with the SEC. [Operator Instructions] Now let me turn the call over to Pete.

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

Thank you, Loren, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, National Oilwell Varco announced second quarter 2013 earnings of $1.24 per share or $531 million. Excluding onetime charges of $57 million, our earnings were $568 million or $1.33 per fully diluted share on revenues of $5.6 billion. Jeremy and Clay will provide more color on these results in just a moment. We also announced today an intake of new capital equipment orders of $3.15 billion, representing a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5. This brings our total backlog to a record of $13.95 billion and continues to demonstrate the preference for NOV products and services worldwide. I believe these results are the product of the continued outstanding performance of all of our employees around the world. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Clay for more perspective on our operations. Clay?

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

Thank you, Pete. We saw 4 positive developments at NOV for the second quarter of 2013. First, very strong order flow continued for new offshore rigs, both floaters and jackups. FPSO production equipment orders also surged. In fact, the largest turret mooring system order ever for APL contributed to its record for the quarter. Overall, Rig Technology orders of $3.1 billion, our second highest quarter ever, drove the segment's backlog to a new record level of $13.9 billion. And we expect orders for FPSOs and rigs, again, to both be very strong in the third quarter. Second, we made excellent progress on our Robbins & Myers integration, which is being consolidated into 6 different product lines within NOV. And also good progress on Fiberspar, Wilson and CE Franklin consolidations as well. These are all complex that our folks excel at integrating, having done dozens of acquisitions over the years. Each of these acquisitions strengthened NOV's market leadership position in a particular product or market. Market leadership provides scale economies and first-mover advantages to our enterprise, providing a foundation for future growth. Jeremy will talk more about this in just a moment. Third, we made good progress on several organic expansion initiatives underway including, and get ready because this is a really long list, a Houston facility to consolidate several locations in our Distribution Services group; construction of a new tubular inspection and coating facility to service the growing deepwater Gulf of Mexico market; expansion of our BOP manufacturing plant, which will double production this year; construction of several facilities in Brazil, including a new flagship flexible pipe manufacturing operation set to start production this quarter; expansion of our Quality Tubing, coiled tubing manufacturing operation; expansion of several aftermarket support centers for Rig Technology; construction of a new manufacturing plant in…

Jeremy D. Thigpen

Analyst

Thanks, Clay. As Pete mentioned, National Oilwell Varco generated earnings of $1.24 per fully diluted share in the second quarter of 2013 on $5.6 billion in revenues. Excluding $57 million and pretax transaction charges, second quarter 2013 earnings were $1.33 per fully diluted share. That's up $0.04 per share or 3% from the first quarter 2013 and down $0.13 per share or 9% from the second quarter of 2012. Sales of $5.6 billion improved 6% sequentially and grew 18% year-over-year despite some real challenges in the market that included a North American rig count that declined by almost 17% sequentially and 11% year-over-year, coupled with oversupplied North American land market that has further curtailed customer spending for both our capital equipment and our PS&S product and services. Excluding transaction charges from all periods, operating profit for the quarter was $826 million, which is up 1% sequentially and down 9% from the second quarter of last year. Operating margins on this basis were 14.7% for the second quarter of 2013 compared to 15.4% for the first quarter of 2013 and 19.2% for the second quarter of last year. Now let's turn to our segment operating results. The Rig Technology segment generated revenues of $2.8 billion in the second quarter, up 8% sequentially and up 18% compared to the second quarter of 2012. Operating profit for the segment was $587 million and operating margins were 20.7%, down 50 basis points from the prior quarter and 300 basis points from the second quarter 2012. On the Q1 conference call, we expected Rig Tech revenues to increase in the low single-digit percentage range as continued declines in our pressure pumping and coiled tubing equipment businesses would be more than offset by a full quarter of contribution from Robbins & Myers and continued growth in…

Jeremy D. Thigpen

Analyst

Thanks, Jeremy. I think Clay and Jeremy have really done a good job of kind of outlining what's happening in this quarter and what we expect to happen as we move forward. I'd just like to touch real quickly on, I think, some continuing macro themes that are going to be very important. And really, it's going to be a repeat of some of the things Clay's talked about earlier. But I think these expansions that we're doing are really going to be beneficial for us as we move into 2014, especially. It really gives us a lot more efficient operations, does a lot of cool things for us on products and services and I think they'll be very, very beneficial for us. The shale development worldwide continues. We're poised to be able to take advantage of that. We think we're in the right places. We're going to be there at the right time and I think it's going to be very beneficial. The continuing deepwater and premium jackup story is going to continue. You see the number of jackups we've had the past few quarters. We are looking to the future. I think it's going to be very, very positive and especially in the deepwater arena. And again, people like our products and services. A lot of the things that we do we're doing to make sure that we take care of our customers, that we're delivering on time and while that might add a little bit to the expense base, we think it bodes well for our future business with these people and our future relationships. And then, finally, is the developing FPSO and flexible story. I think we're starting to get the traction there that we thought we'd get for a long time. That's going to be the next leg of the stool for us. We're very confident that as we move into 2014 and 2015, that's going to be a much better story for us. So I just wanted to kind of touch real quickly on those macro themes. What I'd like to do right now, Larissa, is to turn it over to our callers for any questions that they might have.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Jim Crandell from Cowen.

James D. Crandell - Cowen Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Guys, one of the things I think that we've talked about in the past that would lead to improving margins at Rig Tech would -- was that you were undertaking some pricing initiatives both, I think, as part of new rig packages and then in the aftermarket. I don't believe you mentioned pricing. But is this piece central to your being able to improve margins there over the, let's say, next 6 to 12 months?

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

Yes, Jim, absolutely. In fact, really the beginning of the second quarter is when we begin to be more assertive on pricing and -- particularly on offshore packages and its spare parts and so something in the mid-single-digit range is kind of what we're looking at here. But that reflects -- we, for the last couple of quarters, faced cost increases in equipment that we make. And so that is leading us to push pricing with the most success offshore. I think land's going to be a little more charging. The market, as we discussed, is a little softer but we're doing what we can.

James D. Crandell - Cowen Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. My second question, Pete, is that another company, Dresser-Rand, on their call talked about the pushing out of FPSO projects and they were seeing delays in a lot of the projects they were monitoring. I know you keep up with this especially closely. Can you speak to that? And can you also speak to maybe progress that you're seeing in terms of talking about the standardization of up to a high percentage of FPSOs, which I guess would be necessary to see you develop that business similar to the way your drillship business is developed?

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

Sure, Jim. I think -- we've talked a little bit in the past about kind of pushing to the right on some of these FPSO projects. And we continue to see some pushed that way. However, we are starting to get some. And I think that's the critical point here. I mean, we would have expected probably to have a few more at this point in time, but we did get some this past quarter. I think Clay mentioned in his comments or Jeremy did what the backlog was on our flexibles and FPSO business. So we're actually pretty confident that while some will be pushing to the right, enough were coming in that it's going to really start playing better into our backlog. But even the ones that pushed to the right, at some point in time, I would guess in 2014, they're going to come in as well. So we're kind of getting a little bit of both. We're starting to get some now and we're starting to see some push a little bit to the right. I think as far as the standardization program, we continue to push it hard. It is something that we think is really going to be key to the FPSO business. We always kind of take a look at the way that the drill ship business used to look back in the mid-'90s and kind of the cost overruns and disasters that occurred. And when you kind of compare that to what's going on today in the FPSO business, you've got almost a mirror image. We've really helped the industry solve the issue with the drillships. And now we'd like to be able to do the same thing with the FPSOs and we think we're on track to do that. It's not a quick fix, though. I would be lying to say it is, but it's something that we're pushing on every day. We're working very closely with a few shipyards on it today. And I'm confident that we're going to achieve success in that arena.

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

Yes, we put together a pretty comprehensive group of products now comprising an NOV package and we're starting to get a little traction with that. We also had the opportunity to review a Douglas-Westwood study recently that went in and characterized a number of FPSO projects, that found that all of them were late; all of them were over budget, typically about 1/3; and all of them being late pushed back first to oil more than 1 year, on average. And so that's a pretty -- that's just not a very efficient way to build FPSOs. And so kind of our vision here is to bring in not necessarily more standardized FPSO. I'd prefer the word configurable. All FPSOs are going to have to be somewhat tailored to the fields that they produce, but it's not going to be one-size-fit-all. So what we're trying to do or develop is a series of configurable FPSOs that integrate an NOV package of equipment and fundamentally reshape how the industry builds FPSOs. And we think there's a lot of improvements that can be made there through that approach.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from David Anderson from JPMorgan. John David Anderson - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I was just wondering on your Rig Tech margin guidance compared to what it was last quarter. Before, you were looking for 22%, 23%; now you're looking at 20%, 21%. Where was the change -- where did the change come from your in view? Is that a market dynamic? Is it greater start-up cost? Is it manufacturing congestion? Can you just kind of walk through kind of your thought process on kind of how you got to where you are now?

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

David, it's a realization. We haven't done a good job forecasting these margins for the last couple of quarters, in all candor. We expected -- we've been guiding for a long time margins to come down on Rig Technology. We go back 3 years ago and we said very explicitly every quarter that margins in the low 30s, high 20s were not sustainable and we expected those to march down into the mid-20s range. We guided in 2012 around 24%, which is where we think the long-term margins ought to be and held in the 23% range until the fourth quarter, saw a little softness in the fourth quarter. And then in the first quarter, that was moved down to 21.2%; this last quarter, 20.7%. Each quarter, each of the past 3 quarters, we've had cost that we felt were extraordinary. We could ring fence some. Last quarter, we talked about $32 million of manufacturing costs. This quarter, we ran into some unforeseen I&C, installation and commissioning, costs. What we're doing this quarter is saying, look, we know that the root cause of these things each quarter are the same. Each quarter, the actual costs are a little bit transitory and different, but the root cause is this congestion and this very aggressive delivery schedule that we signed up for. So what we're doing this quarter is sort of just dialing back to a much more conservative stance and saying, I'm not sure what all the headwinds are out there. We're doing our best to identify those but 20% to 21% in Q3 is just more realistic in view of our track record on forecasting the last couple of quarters. But let me be clear. We have a tremendous amount of talent in the manufacturing organization in Rig Technology. I…

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

And I might also add that we just delivered last quarter a rig in 26 months. I mean, we've got challenges, but the bottom line is we're delivering to our customers and that's what's absolute and most important thing to us is making sure that we're getting in there and getting those out. And when you start thinking about the history of drillships and getting 1 out in 26 months, that's pretty Herculean. I mean, that's really pretty phenomenal. So our guys are doing a great job on that and we feel good about the future as we look at it. John David Anderson - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Now this manufacturing congestion has been obviously an issue that's been lingering here for a little bit. You've taken a lot of steps to address this. Where do you think you are -- which inning do you think you are in, in terms of addressing these manufacturing congestion issues? Can you get there in a couple of quarters? Is it a little bit longer? How do we think about how far along you are?

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

I think we're at the seventh inning stretch.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from James West from Barclays.

James C. West - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I want to follow up quickly on Dave's question about Rig Tech margins. Clay, you mentioned normalized, you think, mid-20s. Is that -- should we think about as we get past these next several quarters if we are in the seventh inning stretch, as you implied there, that we can see margins approaching that level next year?

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

Yes. I mean, we need a few more stars to line up. What would help is a stronger North American market, better demand for frac spreads, for well intervention equipment and for land rigs. That -- those businesses that kind of continue to see margin erosion and they're doing a great job reducing costs. We've also closed a couple of facilities around that infrastructure, but a little more demand in that area would help. Continued growth in the aftermarket will certainly help the mix. Continued growth in FPSO, which is -- that's going the right way, but that's going to be a little bit dilutive to the mix. But overall, the kind of the 24% goal is when we step back and we look at a business that has market-leading positions across a lot of critical equipment and technologies throughout the oilfield. I think that's an achievable goal that's still several quarters away. Some other complicating factors, I went through a very lengthy list of expansion projects we have underway. That covers all 3 segments, but many of those are within Rig Technology. It's just very disruptive when you're expanding a plant, pouring concrete while you're also trying to get record volumes out the door, it makes for a tough job for a plant manager. And we've got a lot of plant managers that are really shouldering a heavy load right now trying to do that.

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

Yes, another thing that will help us as we move into next year is we will be complete with the flexible manufacturing plant in Brazil. Right now, that's hurting us to the tune of about $10 million a quarter in start-up costs with no revenue to cover that up. We will start production this quarter and we expect to ship our first product to recognize revenue in Q1 of next year.

James C. West - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, okay. Good. And then just a follow-up from a really unrelated question. I was in Asia really recently, met with several of the shipyards and they were suggesting that kind of the impediment to getting rigs out the door is more on the equipment side rather than the shipyard side, which makes sense since they're not building tankers, et cetera, this cycle. I know you guys have reduced your lead times significantly. They suggested, and this is -- I'm going to consider the source here, of course, but it's the BOP, the BOP was the critical kind of component here that everything else you guys were able to deliver on time and your competitors deliver on time, but the BOP was the, I guess, the lagging factor, I guess. Number one, is that an accurate statement? And then number two, with the doubling of your manufacturing capacity, does that constraint start to really go away from the market now?

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

Well, let me take the first part of that. [indiscernible] James, I've been doing this for about 17 years and shipyards have beaten me up for 17 years, telling me that I'm the critical path. So I would suggest that you consider the source because it's a 3-way deal and the shipyard's got to say, it's not me, man, it's the other guy. And so we like what we're doing. And I would suggest if you look at the record over the last 4 or 5 years, you'll find that almost all these things are delivered on time, on budget. And that's because we're not there hitting it hard. Now I'll let Clay answer the specifics on the BOP.

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

Let me stress, we appreciate our good shipyard customers and let me continue. They may be listening. But also, in fairness, we've had a few challenges but they have, too. It's just difficult for them to build a ship in 26 months as it is for us. And so one of the complexities that we face when we do installation and commissioning is we rely on shipyard labor to perform a lot of electrical construction, a lot of mechanical construction. And one of the issues we run into is -- and you can imagine, our crews have to schedule closely and articulate well with the shipyard's support crew and they're stressed throughout the system, in all fairness. So we're not perfect and BOPs have been a challenge. But I think both shipyards and all equipment providers are struggling with these much shorter delivery times. It's also made more challenging by the fact that a lot of the rig layouts and designs are different this time. The rigs that were being ordered in '06, '07 and '08, now we've lost some of the learnings. As a matter of fact, we're kind of relearning that because the layouts are somewhat different. We have new class standards coming from the customers, the new ABS 2012, DNV standards and the like are requiring modifications to what we did before and that's affecting both the shipyards, as well as NOV. So there's more complexity this time around. Look, the good news is, though, we got -- both the shipyards and NOV have got great teams who have climbed this mountain before and it's a little steeper this time. But we're climbing it, we're moving up successfully, we get better month-by-month. And so I know we're going in the right direction on this.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Kurt Hallead from RBC Capital Markets.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

I just wanted to probe a little bit further in terms of the second half of the year and the progression, I think. Jeremy, when you were up at our conference back in June, you indicated that the FPSO opportunity set forth in 2013 from an order flow standpoint could approach maybe $1 billion. I'm just wondering if you can give us a quick update on that and whether you still think that's achievable?

Jeremy D. Thigpen

Analyst

Yes, based on the first half order intake, that appears very achievable. Again, as Pete kind of alluded to, these orders have pushed to the right for the last couple of years and so it's been frustrating for us, but we are finally starting to get some traction. We've got enough FEED studies out there, enough quotations that are out there that we feel confident that we could match what we did in the first half of the year and deliver $1 billion in new orders.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just a follow-up on the PSS part of the business. Just like to kind of recalibrate every now and then in terms of the, give it a general sense, as what the biggest businesses are within PSS at this juncture. And are you looking at the same dynamic than everyone else is in terms of the well count, the horizontal well count really being the key driver for the PSS revenue growth during the second half of the year instead of looking at rig count?

Jeremy D. Thigpen

Analyst

Yes, there's a variety of products in PS&S. I think most or probably a little more well count-driven, but some are more rig count-driven and so the former group has probably a little brighter outlook as well count and footages continue to rise. And those would include things like drill pipe bits, downhole motors, which we added to with Robbins & Myers. On the more rig count-driven businesses, areas like Well Site Services are seeing a bit of a shift as the industry moves away from more exploratory, drilling the whole acreage to more well manufacturing pad drilling sorts of activities. Part of their game plan is to pressure vendors, rental equipment companies, service providers like some of our businesses within PS&S. And so we're kind of resetting our business and adjusting to that more factory-like setting and making really good progress there as well. But overall, what's encouraging is, and I think we alluded to this in our comments, a lot of things, particularly consumables that we sell within PS&S, we're starting to see demand pick up. We've had good order rates late in June and July and so I'm actually pretty optimistic that customers who are running out of consumables are having to come back to us.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then if I just may, I have one final. This delivery schedule on the rigs, and you spent quite a bit of time talking this through. I guess, I'm still curious as to whether or not is this new time frame going to be -- are we basically at maximum efficiency for delivery times or you guys really think there's still some time that's going to be shaved off deliveries? How do you look at that longer term?

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

I'll take the first, Kurt. I think when you take a look at what we've been able to do with that over the years, I mean, if you go back to 1996, 1997, it was 4 years for a drillship. You go back into the 2005-2006 time frame, it's 30 -- 36 to 40 months. And then now we've been able to cut that down to 26 months, the one that I just talked about us delivering. And I think, obviously, we're a believer in the learning curve and the race without a finish line. But at some point in time, you start bumping up against reality. And I think today, getting a drillship out in 26 months, as I said earlier, is Herculean and you might get a little bit better but I highly doubt it. That's moving everything about as fast as the logistics change going to move it.

Operator

Operator

The last question comes from Edward Muztafago from Societe Generale.

Edward Muztafago - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Analyst

Was just wondering if you could maybe go a little bit deeper into the Canadian cyclicality and just kind of give us an idea as to how much that impacted earnings overall in the quarter. I know obviously that was more than offset by some other issues, but just trying to think about sequentially how that plays out in 3Q?

Jeremy D. Thigpen

Analyst

Yes. Overall, our revenue in Canada fell nearly $100 million sequentially. It always falls pretty significantly. And that's mostly within our Petroleum Services & Supplies group. What's particularly painful about that is that the leverage on that decline is always really, really high. So you have, for instance, some rental equipment businesses up there in Canada where the second quarter traditionally a lot of rental tools come in, go off rent. We use that quarter to fix them and to get them ready for the pickup in activity. And so it's a period of time we are incurring all of your costs, and in fact, your costs may actually go up a little bit, offset by revenue from lots of businesses that drop dramatically with the rig count. This year, Canada was particularly painful. A breakup started early in April and has continued throughout the second quarter. Starting to come back now in July, saw rig count pick up, up there. But just terrible flooding, it also impacted the Bakken in the Northern U.S. as well, to some extent. And so took a big toll in our operations. But PS&S is the segment the most hardest hit by that phenomenon and then Distribution also saw big decline and high decrementals for Rigs business as well.

Edward Muztafago - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Analyst

The revenue number there is actually very helpful. And just wondered perhaps on a little bit of a higher level, can you talk about -- we've seen something like 13 new build floaters awarded through mid-July. As you kind of talk to the shipyards and you partly alluded to what the outlook is like for the third quarter, but do you think the run rate that we're seeing right now is sustainable through the rest of the year? And maybe if you want to just define a little bit as you look out into 2014, there has been some chatter about an increased interest in a mid-quarter retirement cycle, maybe how that plays into your longer-term outlook?

Jeremy D. Thigpen

Analyst

Yes. The quarter before last, I think we dealt into this topic. We're big believers in fundamentals here. So if the drilling contractors are making good day rates and that's supported by high oil prices and have lots of good unexplored prospects in the deepwater around the world, we're simple guys. We think that's going to result in a lot more deepwater drilling rigs. And so for that reason, yes, we continue to be bullish. What, I think, we find are drilling contractors who tell Wall Street, "Well, we're not so sure. Maybe we're kind of loaded up. There's a lot of capacity coming in." Which there is, but, heck, there's a lot of oil to be explored for, too. And I think we all have perfect visibility into the supply of new rigs flowing into the marketplace over the next several years. What the market has less visibility into is demand from the E&Ps. But with both WTI and Brent trading over $100 a barrel, as well as millions of unexplored acreage out there left to be prospected, we think that sets up a pretty good set of fundamentals to drive sustained demand over the long haul. So, yes, I'm going to tell you, I think the economics on building rigs today is strong. I hear kind of mid- to high teens unlevered returns and levered returns up in the 20s. And to me, that's probably pretty attractive, pretty good opportunity for a lot of these drillers to grow organically. And we think that's going to be the engine that's going to continue to fuel the order book at NOV.

Edward Muztafago - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Analyst

And I guess, no commentary perhaps on the back half in terms of just the run rate, the sustainability of new orders here?

Clay C. Williams

Analyst

Well, let me reiterate what we said in the opening comments. We think Q3 will be strong. We sold 8 floaters in each of the first 2 quarters of the year. There's a possibility we could sell another 8 in Q3 as well. And then I think I also specifically said double-digit number of jackups, too. So, yes, we're calling for another strong order. I don't know if we'll repeat $3.15 billion, but it should be good.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Miller, do you have any final remarks?

Merrill A. Miller

Analyst

I'd like to thank everybody for calling in, and we look forward to talking to you in late October with the results of our third quarter. Thank you very, very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.