Earnings Labs

NOV Inc. (NOV)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 24, 2008

$20.28

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the National Oilwell Varco Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. During today’s presentation, all parties will be in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions. (Operator Instructions). This conference is being recorded today, Thursday, October 23rd of 2008. And at this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Pete Miller, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Pete Miller

Management

Thanks, Marcia. Good morning. Welcome to the third quarter 2008 National Oilwell Varco earnings conference call. I’m Pete Miller, Chairman and CEO of National Oilwell Varco. And with me on the call today are Clay Williams, our Chief Financial Officer, and Jeremy Thigpen, the President of our Downhole Tools and Pumping Solutions group. Earlier today, we announced earnings of $548 million or $1.31 a share on revenues of $3.6 billion. Included in the results are $0.04 charge for costs associated with our recent Grant Prideco acquisition and about $0.09 of after-tax charge associated with the Hurricane Ike disruption that we had in Houston. While the facilities made it through Hurricane Ike very well, we lost a lot of power, and as a result, lost about two weeks of productive capacity out of many of our facilities. That’s what entails this $0.09. This in fact will be recouped over the next couple of quarters as we ship out products that we deducted out. Overall, we are very, very pleased with the results that we had in this quarter. Additionally, we announced a record capital intake of new orders of $2.4 billion, bringing our current backlog up to a record level of almost $12 billion. It’s really $11.8 billion, but I like to say $12 billion. Clay will provide a lot of detail on this in just a moment, but I think it does indicate the continuing need to retool our business and to rebuild the infrastructure that we have around the world. We are very pleased with these results as I said earlier. While there is anxiety and concern over the near-term prospects of the oil and gas business, most especially because of the financial anxiety around the world, we believe our outstanding employees, our strong balance sheet, our exceptional products and our wonderful business model are going to present us with opportunities that we haven’t seen for quite some time. We feel very, very good about our opportunities and the way we are going to advance through the future. At this point, I’d like to turn it over to Clay Williams who will give you a little bit of color on the numbers, tell you a little bit about our backlog, and then we’ll turn it over to Jeremy to talk a little bit about his business in the Downhole Tools and the Pumping Systems. Clay.

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Pete. Before we begin this discussion of National Oilwell Varco’s financial results for its third quarter ended September 30th, 2008, please note that some of statements we make during this call may contain forecasts, projections and estimates including but not limited to or comments for the outlook of the company’s business. These are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws based on limited information as of today, which is subject to change. They are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. No one should assume that these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the year. I refer it you to the latest form 10-K and S-4 that National Oilwell Varco has on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of major risk factors affecting our business. Further information regarding these as well as supplemental, financial, and operating information may be found within our press release on our website at www.nov.com, or in our filings with the SEC. Later on in this call, Pete, Jeremy and I will answer your questions. We ask that you limit your questions to two in order to permit more participation. National Oilwell Varco generated earnings of $548 million or $1.31 per fully diluted share in its third quarter ended September 30th, 2008, on revenues of $3.6 billion. The results include a $0.04 per share transaction charge related to our second quarter merger with Grant Prideco in line with our prior guidance and an estimated impact of $0.09 per share from Hurricane Ike. Excluding both items, earning would have been approximately $1.44 per share, a terrific result for stormy quarter, in more ways than one. Hurricane Ike took a significant toll on our Texas employees, customers and suppliers in the quarter, as Pete…

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Thanks, Clay. I really appreciate this opportunity to share with our listeners some additional information about a few of those product lines that are not quite as visible as our rig or distribution businesses. Our particular portion of the PS&S segment accounts for approximately $2 billion in annualized revenue and is comprised of four different distinct product areas that we refer to as mission products, drill-stream telemetry, downhole, and drill bits and services. With mission, we design and manufacture a complete portfolio of multipurpose pumps utilized in both drilling and production. We also provide the fluid end modules, pistons, liners and other expendables that enable our customers to optimize their performance, simplify their maintenance processes and reduce their total cost of ownership by extending the life of their pumps. I suppose the simplest way to describe mission is to tell you that it’s a microcosm of NOV. We have the most recognized, respected, and trusted brand names in the market, impeccable quality, industry-leading technology, a global manufacturing and distribution network and well-positioned and well-capitalized customers that just happen to include NOV distribution, NOV rig solutions and all the world’s largest land and offshore drilling contractors. Therefore, while we are certainly keeping a watchful eye on the global economy and its impact on commodity pricing and drilling activity, especially in U.S. land, we feel very comfortable with our position. As of this morning, we have not yet experienced any weakening in our day-to-day expendables business. We still have a healthy backlog of CP packages for the various new builds that are in process, and with our premium products, we continue to capture market share both domestically and abroad. However, in the event that we do experience a slowdown in the U.S., we believe that we’re well positioned to quickly shrink our…

Pete Miller

Management

Thanks, Jeremy, and thanks, Clay. I just want to make a couple of quick comments myself, and then I’ll turn it over for Q&A. I think one of the things that’s for everybody to realize, while we certainly believe that North America is going to get softer, I think everyone out there realizes that, kind of one of the unique things about our business today is, it basically is very rapidly self-correcting. If you look at the number of wells that are being drilled today, the vast majority are becoming horizontal wells. There are shale plays, and quite frankly the completion curves on shale plays are very significant. When you stop drilling and all of a sudden cut into the production capacity, it’ll all of a sudden cut into the amount of gas out there which in turn means you better start drilling again. We’ve seen this happen whether you go back to the ‘99, whether you go back to 2001. And so, we do believe things will be rapidly self-correcting. Secondly, you’ve heard a lot of the drilling contractors talk about the need for the newer rigs. I think yesterday Nabors mentioned that their new rigs are in great shape and they were going to get rid of old rigs and they were going to actually cut some up. Quite frankly that plays into exactly what we have been talking about for a long time. We need infrastructure replacement. Irrespective of what happens over the next year or so or two on the financial economy, rust never sleeps. And if you are going to continue to need the infrastructure replacement, we think we are in great shape to be able to handle that. I think Clay gave you a very good definition and description of what our backlog’s all…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. (Operator Instructions). Our first question is from Jim Crandell. Please state your company name followed by your question.

Jim Crandell - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Good morning, guys, Jim Crandell from Barclays Capital. Another great quarter. Congratulations.

Pete Miller

Management

Thank, Jim.

Jim Crandell - Barclays Capital

Analyst

First question is about Brazil. I think Clay mentioned that you received 3 of the 12 orders from Brazil in the third quarter. Would you expect the majority of the reminder in the fourth quarter? And can you give your thoughts on spending coming out of Brazil, and rigs coming out of Brazil over the next two to three years?

Pete Miller

Management

Jim, I would say -- I wouldn’t say that we would be getting the orders in the fourth quarter. I think there is a potential we will have some of them in the fourth quarter. I do think they are having a few challenges there getting the financing straightened out the way they want it. If you will note, yesterday -- I mentioned earlier about the CEO from Petrobras being in town and he kind of mentioned that they were helping a lot of these folks find financing. But in the event that they couldn’t, Petrobras was going to prepare themselves to provide some of the financing. So, I think these are going to go on. The exact timing I think is a little bit problematical at this point. While where we could get some in the fourth quarter, I think the majority would stretch out into ‘09.

Jim Crandell - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay.

Clay Williams

Management

Jim, probably worth noting too there are avenues of financing available out there. Most of the major shipbuilding countries around the world have export/import banks that offer guarantees and can assist builders with financing these rigs. So, there are discussions going on with some of those entities around the world.

Jim Crandell - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay. Second question is, Clay, I believe you told our group three weeks ago of the 102 projects that you are involved in 100 have long-term financing. If my recollection isn’t right, please correct it. In light of that, do you see this situation where you have one customer behind on payment; do you see this as a one-off or very close to a one-off situation?

Clay Williams

Management

Yes, let me clarify, Jim. I said that we had a couple of projects where we knew didn’t have long-term financing.

Jim Crandell - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Right.

Clay Williams

Management

There are others – we are not 100% positive. Remember, we contract through the shipyards pretty frequently. We do have a lot of insight into most of our customers and feel good about their financing, just to clarify that. But yes, we do view the one project that we are having issues on right now is really a one-off. As I mentioned, it’s less than 2% of our backlog and we are substantially cash ahead on that project. And I’ll also add too that this isn’t entirely unusual. This is kind of the business that we are in, and sometimes people get a little late on payments. So, we are talking to that the customer and hopeful things will get on track here.

Jim Crandell - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Pete Miller

Management

Thank you, Jim.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Kurt Hallead. Please state your company name followed by your question.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

Pete Miller

Management

Hi, Kurt.

Clay Williams

Management

Hi, Kurt.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Hey. Obviously, given where your stock is trading right now, it’s discounting pretty significant decrement in business probably lot more severe than we’re actually going to see going forward. I appreciate all the color you have given. Maybe on a more near-term basis then, Clay, you referenced on PSS that the fourth-quarter margins would be down, right?

Clay Williams

Management

Right.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

I was wondering, was that frame of reference off the hurricane-impacted third quarter, or should we think about it a little bit differently?

Clay Williams

Management

That’s sequential. So, it’s compared to the third quarter which is very, very strong. But it’s less a hurricane impact, Kurt, because a hurricane will really affect both quarters. It actually trickled into the first couple of weeks of Q4. It’s less a hurricane issue than it is just a general mix issue that we foresee there.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And I mean, if business actually does slow down to the extent that your stock is predicting. It looks like you guys are going to throw off a tremendous amount of cash. So, I guess that dovetails into your viewpoint of the opportunities that may be presenting themselves right now?

Clay Williams

Management

Absolutely. It’s important to note that we have a very scalable businesses that aren’t terribly capital intensive. As I mentioned, we are under-spending depreciation in CapEx, and so we do generate a lot of cash. We’ve been careful with our balance sheet before this. We haven’t had a stock buyback in the past to preserve capital, because as a management team that has been through a lot of cycles in this industry. We recognized that when business is very good. You really kind of need to hang on to that cash because it has a lot of option value when business turns and gets bad. And so, now that we appear to be moving into a world where market is going to be a little bit softer, we do believe that there are very, very good opportunities that are going to present themselves. We’re glad that we have a strong balance sheet and we’ve preserved capital. We’re glad that we are going to throw off a lot of cash and capital. And we look forward to deploying capital into those opportunities that present themselves as a direct result of the world we find ourselves in.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Do you think that means there is a fourth leg or do you think you will find some things that will tie into your existing, like PSS businesses, for example?

Pete Miller

Management

Well, I think, Kurt, it could be a lot of different things. I think as we look strategically as who we are, if a fourth leg presented itself, we would certainly do it. We like the business model we’ve created. As Clay pointed out earlier, we have got a lot of -- this is a true full-cycle play. And I think there are some other things that we can add into that that makes sense financially and strategically. We would certainly be willing to do it. I think we’ve shown in the past that we are pretty good at that. We are very good at integration and we’re going to keep our eyes open. And the nice thing is that a lot of -- I always tell everybody, if you’re going to build a rig, you always come to us to at least get the quote, and use us as a stocking horse, if nothing else. And if you were going to sell or if you’re interested in selling, you’re always going to come to us to at least see if we are interested. So, we like the opportunities that are out there today.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Pete Miller

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Robin Shoemaker. Please state your company name followed by your question.

Robin Shoemaker - Citigroup

Analyst

Yes, Robin Shoemaker, Citigroup. Congratulations, Pete and Clay, on a great quarter.

Pete Miller

Management

Thanks, Robin.

Robin Shoemaker - Citigroup

Analyst

Yes. I wanted to ask you about the editions to backlog, again, for the quarter. I think you mentioned six deepwater rig packages, a few jack-ups were in there. Could you just indicate whether these orders -- of course during the quarter there was kind of a big change in the credit markets and so forth and oil prices continue to fall. Could you describe these as having come earlier in the quarter rather than later?

Clay Williams

Management

It was -- I know in the month of September, we booked about $600 million out of the $2.4 billion. So, that was kind of while the storm was going on. So, I guess it fell off just a tad. But Robin, I’ll stress these things are so big and lumpy. I am not sure that means anything. We have continued to win some orders since September 30th. So, through the first three weeks of this month, we’ve had orders to continue to come in the door since all this news broke. But in spite of that, I’ll kind of reiterate what Pete and I said earlier, we do expect our customers are going to take a little pause here generally. So, it is softening a little bit. But, a lot of our customers went into our backlog with eyes open about the current credit crisis.

Robin Shoemaker - Citigroup

Analyst

Okay. Then my follow-up is regarding the drill pipe business. You mentioned the back log of a $1 billion roughly of drill pipe orders. I think that’s been pretty steady. We know in passed downturns, of course, that drilling contractors in the US tend to take drill pipe off of idle rigs and looks like the number of rig counts are going to come down. What’s the plan for Grant Prideco in the event that we had, let’s say, a rig count decline from 2,000 level to 1,500 or something like that, and you begin to see the same patterns you saw in the past, where drill pipe was taken off of idle rigs to use on working rigs.

Pete Miller

Management

Well, Robin, I think as with anything, we are pretty darn good at responding at what goes on in the marketplace. I think one of the nice things that you have today is that the Grant Prideco folks have done a great job, but we are also very much of a worldwide company. And the nice thing about drill pipe is that it is very fungible. You can move it around. Contractors move it from rig to rig, and fortunately, manufacturers can move it from country to country. As you look at a lot of the deepwater rigs that are out there today, a lot of those rigs that are on order don’t necessarily have the pipe. I think there is a secondary thing that is happening that’s a little different than in the past. When you look at the number of wells that are being drilled that are, in fact, horizontal, extend reach, the wear and tear on drill pipe is a lot different than it has been in the past. So, the long-winded answer of that is; number one, I think the world’s going to need a little more pipe than it’s needed in the past even with the reused number of rigs; and secondly, if in fact we have to slow down, we slow down, and we know how to handle that, and we’re able to pull back very effectively and keep our costs in line.

Robin Shoemaker - Citigroup

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate that. Thanks, Pete.

Pete Miller

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Bill Sanchez. Please state your company name followed by your question.

Bill Sanchez - Howard Weil Inc.

Analyst

Howard Weil. Good morning.

Pete Miller

Management

Hey, Bill.

Clay Williams

Management

Hi, Bill.

Bill Sanchez - Howard Weil Inc.

Analyst

Just to cycle back on the Petrobras question from earlier. The 3 of the 12 that you awarded, Clay and Pete, were there other awards made during the quarter that went to other [cable com] providers or is there still nine remaining, if you will, that need to be awarded going forward.

Pete Miller

Management

Well, heck, Bill, I would never admit that anything was ordered to anybody else. No I think as you go forward there probably are still plenty of those to be awarded. I think that there some have been awarded, but I also think that that number 12 is probably a floating number too. I think that number could go up. It could go down. So, the only thing that I can tell you is what we got, but I am not really too worried. We got a pretty good position in the market.

Bill Sanchez - Howard Weil Inc.

Analyst

Okay. So, one follow-up, Clay, for you, margins on the backlog if we think of the $11.8 billion right now and what the aggregate margin is embedded in that versus what you have already recorded to the P&L so far. I take it on average higher than what we have seen so far.

Clay Williams

Management

Yeah, you’ve generally seen a shift over the last couple of years towards more offshore and more ultra-deepwater and more sophisticated equipment, which is good for our margins, that’s accretive to the margins generally. But, there is not a huge difference. We get good margins on the land rigs we sell too. So, that’s kind of one effect you saw. As we move through the cycle, we’ve had margins expand somewhat -- they kind of flattened out somewhat over the past year. The other is, though, that we’re also getting better and better at executing on these rigs. We are now performing installation and commissioning work on the second copy and third copy of rigs, and we just -- there is a learning curve effect here, as we do the second, third, fourth, fifth version, costs tend to come down. So, I think that will help add to the margins as we go forward too.

Bill Sanchez - Howard Weil Inc.

Analyst

And the incremental orders you see here over the next few quarters, margins should be consistent with what we have recently seen?

Clay Williams

Management

Yes, in broad terms, I believe so. As I mentioned, there was a couple of good economic drivers that are helping the economics of building rigs with steel rolling over about 10% to 20%, with the dollar strengthening. That helps us. We make a lot overseas that is costed in foreign currencies, and so translating that to those costs to dollars reduces them.

Bill Sanchez - Howard Weil Inc.

Analyst

Thank you, all.

Pete Miller

Management

Thanks, Bill.

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Bill.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brad Handler. Please state your company name followed by your question.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Thanks, it’s Brad Handler with Credit Suisse. Good morning, guys.

Pete Miller

Management

Good morning, Brad.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

I guess following up on Bill’s line of questions. Can you speak specifically to the steel, to steel ruling over? You buy forward -- I am sure you buy forward. But how much of the backlog might you be able to benefit in terms of margins relative to steel if it continues to decline?

Clay Williams

Management

Actually not that much. We do work very hard to try to lock steel in. We learned a long time ago we are not very good on speculating on steel price directions and we refer not to do that. So, when we win an order, what we like to do is just lock it in so it’s no longer a big variable. And to do that, we place orders for castings and forgings and structural steel as quickly as we can after we win a contract. So, in terms of our existing book of business, we expect to have not that big of an impact from falling steel prices. But looking forward to the next projects that we bid with a little cheaper steel costs that helps us in terms of our cost structure.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Also it helps all of our day-to-day businesses. If you look at the PS&S group, we don’t buy forward that much and don’t carry over large inventories of steel. So, as we see steel starting to roll over and decline here over the next couple of months, it certainly helps our cost structure.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Can you -- Jeremy, thanks for that. Can you comment a little bit on kind of proportion of costs? I know you were talking about a lot of different businesses, but --

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Sure. Yes, it ranges across the businesses. If you look at our downhole business, steel makes up approximately 45% of the total cost of our goods. And if you look at the mission businesses, it ranges anywhere from 45% to 80%. Those modules are very steel intensive and so we benefit greatly from the reduction.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. If I could steal just sort of an unrelated follow-up and I guess this is out of curiosity.

Pete Miller

Management

Yes.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

If anything else the IntelliServ comments that you made, it sounds like we had a lull relative to when Grant was running this business, quite a lull in terms of getting follow-on orders to the initial work. It sounds like you are suggesting that has finally turned and activity will ramp. So, perhaps how many strings might you be running as of the first quarter of ‘09 just as a way of referencing the turn?

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Right now we have 13 strings. We’re going to be adding another three in Q1. And so, it’s a combination of both the strings and kind of the resources to perform the jobs. But at the point, will be at the point where we will have 16 strings in Q1.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Running or you will have them.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

They won’t be running concurrently.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay.

Clay Williams

Management

You probably want to know, too, you’re getting repeat customers.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Absolutely. That’s -- 2008 has been a great year for IntelliServ. We haven’t had any problems with the network whatsoever. There is no downtime associated with the network whatsoever. And so, we’re getting a lot of repeat business, and that’s really our focus is to focus on a core group of customers in a few geographic areas to make sure that we get this right and gain the acceptance in the marketplace that we want for this technology.

Brad Handler - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. It was very helpful.

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Brad.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Thanks Brad.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael LaMotte. Please state your company name followed by your question.

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Thanks, JP Morgan. Good morning, guys.

Pete Miller

Management

Good morning, Michael. How are you doing?

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

I am doing okay. Thanks, Pete. A question for you, Clay, on the CapEx side. You mentioned that you are under-spending depreciation. I know that you have been spending on facilities with cellular manufacturing and that kind of thing. Where are you now in terms of CapEx plans in this effort to try to ring cash out of the business?

Clay Williams

Management

As we have talked about in the past, converting a facility over to cellular manufacturing is a fairly lengthy and involved process. You can’t just shut down a plant for three months while you rearrange all of the machine tools. And so, it’s a two to three year or four year in some cases, type effort. So, we’re a pretty good ways of the way through on the facilities that we plan to make this conversion in, probably touches two-thirds of our manufacturing facilities that we have in Rig Technology. We also have facilities in PS&S that have adopted cellular.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Yes. All of the downhole and mission manufacturing businesses have adopted the cellular manufacturing approach.

Clay Williams

Management

Yes. But one of the key aspects of it too that it is not terribly CapEx intensive. You’re really more rearranging workflow, and processes, job descriptions and how you’re organized more so than going out and writing big checks for roofline and machine tools. We have made rifle shot purchases of machine tools along the way to kind of bolster our manufacturing capabilities, but the thing about Rig Technology is it’s really a fairly capitalized business.

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

So, if we think about current CapEx levels, it’s probably pretty sustainable even call it a maintenance level at this point, ex-acquisition?

Clay Williams

Management

Well, yes, in fact, we can spend less if we need to. In fact, Jeremy’s businesses consume a kind of a disproportionate amount of capital because they have such high growth opportunities. That’s something we can adjust to the marketplace.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

High growth opportunities and the fact that it’s a rental model --

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

I was going to say, what percentage is now in rental roughly?

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

It depends by product line, but between 50% and 60% depending on the month of the quarter.

Pete Miller

Management

To add a little more color, three-fourths of our third quarter CapEx which was $104 million, so a little over $75 million was in our Petroleum Services & Supplies Group. Rig Technology truly is a pretty capitalized business. Our PS&S business is a little heavier on capital because there are all rental businesses. In addition to Jeremy’s, we also rent a lot of solids control equipment and other things.

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

And 50%, 60% of that $75 million is rental tool related?

Clay Williams

Management

I don’t think it’s quite that high, but it’s certainly over half.

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Okay. As a follow on, if I think of the M&A environment of previous downturns, NOV and the predecessor companies were in very different stages of their own corporate development as was the business itself. If I think about value and use of cash, why not step on a share repurchase plan? I mean is there that much out there that could plug holes or create other business lines that would potentially create as much value as buying back your own stock here?

Pete Miller

Management

You know, Michael, I think everything is on the table for us today. I think we are in a little bit of un-chartered waters right here when you take a look at what we perceive to be a pretty undervalued stock price. But others out there have undervalued stock prices too. I think as we look that this, I wouldn’t want anybody to ever think that we just exclude anything, but I think as we go to our Board and talk about our strategy. We put everything out there on the table, and that’s not to say that a stock buyback wouldn’t be one of the things that we clearly would have right on the table. But we want to make sure that we are creating a lot of value for our shareholders, and then many times if we can find something out there that really adds to true growth and to true earnings and get that value, that’s what we are going to do. But you can rest assure, this management team is committed to creating value for our shareholders and we’re going to do that in the best way possible.

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Is co-private on the table?

Pete Miller

Management

Heck. Is this the last question?

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Michael.

Michael LaMotte - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

I am done.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the final question is from Geoff Kieburtz. Please state your company name, followed by your question. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: Weeden & Company. Good morning.

Pete Miller

Management

Good morning, Jeff.

Clay Williams

Management

Hey, Geoff. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: Just a couple of follow-ups. You guys keep a very good track of what’s on the, let’s say the shadow calendar in terms of orders and so on. Have you seen anything that you would have rated as high probability either get pulled off the list or at least moved to a low probability over the course of last three months?

Clay Williams

Management

We’ve had specific customers say, hey, we want to see where this credit market is going, where commodity prices shake out, that sort of thing. Yes, we got a couple of customers. I don’t think anyone is coming to us saying, absolutely not, we’ve decided we’ll never ever buy this rig. It’s more a case of let’s low play this a little bit and see how things go. Bear in mind, Geoff, these conversations with these customers are kind of three-way conversations. There is us, there is a shipyard, there is a customer, and then they will be talking to their sources of financing, if they need external financing for the rig. They are often also talking to oil companies about specific specifications that their customers want to build into the rigs. And so, they are a lengthy conversation. They go on for months and quarters and sometimes even years. And so, today we have a lot of time invested in these various conversations. So, I think people truly do believe that the world does need more deepwater drilling capacity, then there will be a need for these rigs, but kind of view this as sort of a short-term dislocation. Many, as I mentioned earlier, are looking for other sources of financing and talking to some of the export/import banks, the government-sponsored agencies around the world that guarantee financing, and they seem to be filling in some of the gaps here. So, we are hopeful. We do acknowledge there will be a headwind here for a couple of quarters, but hopefully things will turn around after that. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: In terms of your comment about your orders coming down in the next several quarters, are you also signaling that you will expect to see backlog coming down?

Pete Miller

Management

I don’t know that I would say that. As you take a look, Geoff, over the last couple of years, our book to bill has been in some cases two to one and alike. So, I think it would be too early to say that I would say backlog is coming down. Certainly, the book to bill isn’t going to stick up at 1.8 or two to one. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: Right.

Peter Miller

Analyst

But still, and I think what’s important to realize is orders are coming in and this is the 23rd of October, and we have taken some very significant orders in October already. So, I think it’d be premature to say exactly what would happen because we in uncertain times. But still, orders are coming in, and I think that in the long run, it’s still a very positive business. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: Okay. And if I could just on the separate topic, on the M&A, are you willing to give us any of your current thoughts as to what looks most interesting as everything starts looking cheaper?

Clay Williams

Management

We’ve got a lot of good opportunities. We’ve got a pretty broad range and a lot of good opportunities on the table.

Pete Miller

Management

Yes. And I hate to tell, you Jeff, because then the price is liable to go up.

Clay Williams

Management

To give a little more color, I think most public companies in oil field services have pretty strong balance sheets. They have watched their stock prices decline and they are going take the long view here too. And I think, realistically, what’s probably most doable are companies that are facing a little bit of balance sheet distress, or need to refinance and need external capital. In both public and the private arenas, we’ve had some private equity players rolled into the space in the last few years that highly levered a couple of oil field service companies that we know. So realistically, that’s probably the most doable deal in the short term, and we’ll refine our resources. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: At a very kind of conceptual level, would you -- should we expect it to be primarily manufacturing oriented, or are you looking at anything more deep involvement in the service area?

Pete Miller

Management

Well, I think, Geoff, as you look conceptually at where we’ve always been strategically, we think any product and service in the upstream oil and gas business makes a lot of sense, but also secondarily, we sell, and some of our best customers are people like Schlumberger and Halliburton, and folks like that, and we don’t exactly go out and look for ways to compete against them. What we like more are the products we can provide them and the service that we provide associated with those products.

Jeremy Thigpen

Management

Yes. We’ve done a couple of acquisitions this is quarter in Petroleum Services & Supplies. We do a couple of acquisitions every quarter. So, I want to stress that this is something we do day in and day out. And given what’s going on in the marketplace and potential for downturn out there, we just think there will probably be more coming, and we are anxious to -- we think it’s going to be a pretty interesting time, look forward to doing some deep deals. Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co.: Great. Thanks very much.

Pete Miller

Management

Thanks, Geoff.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I’d like to turn the call back over to Mr. Miller for any closing remarks.

Pete Miller

Management

Thank you, Marcia. And we appreciate everybody’s interest and calling in, and we look forward to talking to you at the end of the year. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the National Oilwell Varco third quarter earnings conference call. If you would like to listen to a replay of today’s conference call, please dial 303-590-3000 with the access code 11120270 followed by the pound sign. We thank you for your participation today, and at this time, you may now disconnect.