Earnings Labs

NOV Inc. (NOV)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 25, 2007

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Our second quarter earnings of $318million or $0.89 a share on revenues of $2.38 billion. We are very pleased with the results and believe they show the continued world wide vitality of our business and the outstanding performance of our 30,000 employees around the globe. In addition to our earnings we announced a quarter ending capital backlog of $8 billion with a record new order intake of $1.9 billion in the quarter. This is fuelled by the robust demand for our equipment especially in the deep water and offshore areas. I will come back in a few moments to going through our operations and backlog in more depth but at this point I would like to turn it over to Clay to expand further on these results. Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: Thanks Dwight. Before we begin this discussion of National Oilwell Varco’s financial results fourth turned quarter into September 30th 2007, please note that some of the statements we make during this call may contain forecasts, projections and estimates including but not limited to comments about our outlook for the company’s business. These are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws based on limited information as of today which is subject to change. They are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. No one should assume that these forward-looking statements were made valid later in the quarter or later in the year. I refer you to the latest Form 10-K and Form 10-Q National Oilwell Varco has on file with the SEC, for more detailed discussion on the major risk factors affecting our business. Further information about our needs as well as supplemental financial and operating information as related to our business may be found within…

Operator

Operator

Thank you Sir. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from Jim [inaudible] with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead. Unidentified Analyst – Lehman Brothers: Good morning and nice quarter. Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: Thanks Jim

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Pete, in terms of floating rigs that have been ordered from the yards but they haven’t yet place your equipment packages. Are we talking at about 10 units?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Yes, Jim it’s a tough number to tell you on some times because there’s some options that are sitting out there and we are not sure that when those options will be exercised but I would say certainly there’s going to be 7 to 10 that are still sitting there that are announced right now.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And do you think on the 12 months basis that 18 to 24 new floating rigs orders is a reasonable range?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

You know I would be reluctant to answer that. Clearly from what we have seen and from what some of the demands are I can’t argue with the number but I don’t know that I’d pound the table and support it either.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Clay,question for you, and Heinz on the last call, when asked about the your U.S. operations the key managers said, I am paraphrasing here but there would be no degradation in U.S. pricing and there were few areas where we could move pricing up modestly with single digits over the next quarter. Did you in fact move prices up in some of the areas and how has there been no degradation? Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: No we did, we have pushed prices up, its been fairly limited though Jim and, but we have moved prices up, kind of here and there, is definitely getting a lot tougher out there though and a lot of our comments with regards to North American market reflect not what we saw in the third quarter but rather kind of looking more forward into the fourth quarter. We do know drilling contractors are starting to cut back on what they are spending and it’s just getting a little tougher out there so, are expecting it, we are going to work hard to hold prices and do our best but, it from a pricing environment standpoint its getting tougher.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, how do your margins differ in distribution, international versus domestic? Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: They are better in international markets.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Are they a lot better? Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: Now, pretty close.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: Pretty close and it varies a lot. We have a lot of start up expenses flowing through our international expansion. So, I’m kind of normalizing for some of that in ’08. But they’re pretty comparable. Canada, you know continues to be challenged from a margin perspective because the business is soft up there. But I think international business and the domestic business are comparable. Now in Q3 domestic business ticked down a little bit due to some of the market developments that I just referred to with slower drilling contractor expenditure. Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: And the other thing Jim, that’s nice on international business especially in distribution, is that normally when we’re expanding, we’re expanding with some of our better customers. And so it’s much more of a deal where we’re going in on an integrated process and it’s not necessarily three bids and a buy like you will see a lot in the United States. So, it’s a little bit more solid business that gives is a little bit more, longer term visibility.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, got you and last question. Pete, from where you sit would you expect the high drills, BOP business to be sold this quarter before you’ll end? Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Jim, I can’t answer that. That’d be something you’d have to ask other folks.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright guys, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Pickering with Tudor Pickering, please go ahead. Dan Pickering – Tudor Pickering & Co. Sec.: Good morning guys.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Good morning Dan. Dan Pickering – Tudor Pickering & Co. Sec.: Clay, I think in your comments you sort of implied revenue from rig technology backlogs at about 2 billion level or so. I’m just wondering where your capacity is headed. I mean you’ve done a great job of being able to get more products out the door. As we look into 2008, I mean where does that kind of quarterly revenue capacity trend toward? Are we leveling off here or will it continue to improve? Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: Our expectation Dan is that it should continue to improve. We have a terrific team running that business and if you look back over the past three years of results what you see is that revenue, particularly revenue out of backlog which is reflective of the big Cap accumulative we’re selling is up nearly fourfold from a first quarter 2005. So, they’ve done a great job and our expectations are going to continue to push it higher. Obviously it gets more challenging as we go further but we have a super team there. Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Dan and I might also add that we’ve made a lot of riffle shot type of investments and acquisitions you know. As Clay, mentioned we made $50 million worth of acquisitions. And a lot of these are for small operations that they give us, better control of our processes and give us control of our products that we need to be able to expand and get the equipment out of the door quicker. So, I think you will continue to see us make these sorts of investment are not huge but at the same time they really allow us…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Marshall Adkins with Raymond James, please go ahead. Marshall Adkins – Raymond James: Clay, you out did yourself on that overview, never thought I’d hear myself say that. Clay C. Williams – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President: Thank you. Marshall Adkins – Raymond James: I want to follow up on Dan’s question a little more detailed than that. Kind of as you look out to ’08 and really even ’09, I kind of always visualize that non capital stuff is pretty high margin stuff and with the higher installed base you have that you know that should be higher than average growth, long term. I mean not talking next quarter or next two quarters but you know next couple of years. Give me some help on kind of what we should look for in terms of revenue trends and margin trends as it breaks down between the non-capital and the capital. Should we see revenues continue to grow on the non-capital long term because of the higher install base? Clay C. Williams – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: Yeah, that’s certainly our expectation and if you drive around Bellville, on the north side of town you see our big investment that we made in that vision in our new after market service facility. We have a 400,000 square foot repair maintenance and a after market service facility that we opened there this summer. So, we feel pretty good about the directions that it’s going. You are right Marshall, the margins are better on the after market business than the capital equipment. But I’ll add that the capital equipment has closed some of the GAAP here over the past couple of years as well. But the basic equipment that we’re…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, our next question is from Kurt Hallead from RBC, please go ahead. Kurt Hallead – RBC Capital Markets: Hey, guys. I just wanted to clarify one thing just Clay one of the things that you first mentioned. I think you first mentioned offshore mix 6.8 billion, 85% of the total. Can you just go over that one more time? I didn’t quite grab it. Clay C. Williams – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: That is correct. 85% of our total backlog mix Kurt is off shore and it’s about 6.8 billion. Kurt Hallead – RBC Capital Markets: And off that what’s the deepwater percentage of that? Clay C. Williams – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: We haven’t given that. We’ve only reported the total offshore. Kurt Hallead – RBC Capital Markets: Alright, okay. Alright and then do you have any general assessment here of you know some of the delays that were made. Are there any delays in shipyards and whether or not that impacts you know flow through on the backlogs? Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: You know Kurt at this point in time, you know there’s always a lot of conversation about delays but I think for the most part things seem to be moving through fairly well, you know when we move our equipment into a shipyard, you know we’re moving on a date specific. You know you need your mud pumps or your drill works on a certain time. So, even if the ultimate shipment of the rig might be delayed, you know maybe a month or something like that our equipment going into that rig is not delayed generally speaking. So, it shouldn’t have too much of an impact on the outflow of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, our next question is from Ole Slorer from Morgan Stanley, please go ahead. Ole Slorer – Morgan Stanley: Thank you very much. You got your hands full now and there are a lot of new customers ordering rigs. Could you talk a little bit about the process of commissioning these rigs once you’ve delivered equipment and getting them up and running and accepted by the customer. Are you involved in that process and what do you think the efficiency will be in some of these rigs when they start drilling? Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Ole, we are very deeply involved. You know some of our customers don’t necessarily want us to do the installation and commissioning. And so then they don’t necessarily bring us in right at the start but the vast majority of the rigs that we’re seeing today, we basically are quoting those with installation commissioning. We, as I mentioned earlier the size of our service organization right now, 900 bulking that up to about 1,300 to 1,400 and everyone of those folks can ultimately be involved in installation and commissioning. We’ve increased our [inaudible] group in Korea substantially. We’ve doe a very good job already in Singapore. We’ve, I think I mentioned earlier that there were 19 jack-ups that we’ve already delivered. Those have come out very, very well. And the neat thing about a lot of these drill shifts is and which I really have to applaud the industry on is that we’re building things that are similar. Every drill shift isn’t different. In the past, I remember we had so many darn tweaks that it was like building a house and everything had to be done in a customized fashion. And what we’re seeing today is…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, our next question is from Robin Shoemaker with Bear Stearns, please go ahead. Robin Shoemaker – Bear Stearns: Thank you and congratulations. I wanted to just get some clarity, Clay when you mentioned that 3.9 billion of backlogs are expected to come out in ’08 and that figure on the last quarter you gave was 2.7 and you’re now saying 2.9 billion in 2009 and beyond and last quarter it was 2.5. So, it’s the vast majority, three times the backlog addition in ’08 compared to ’09 and beyond. It’s kind of curious to me because I would have thought the big wins and the big additions to backlog would’ve been in drill ships and semis for delivery in late ’09 and ’10 but the big backlog growth here was for ’08 delivery. Clay C. Williams – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: That’s a good question Robin and it has to do with the difference in revenue recognition between the two types of ways we recognize revenue. The larger, offshore, more complicated projects we recognize on a percentage of completion basis. So, we will recognize revenue pro-ratably as we spin costs on those projects. Not necessarily tied to when the equipment is delivered. Robin Shoemaker – Bear Stearns: Okay. Clay C. Williams – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: And then the more standard type commodity of equipment that we manufacture multiple copies of we deliver on a completed contract basis. We recognize all the revenue on the day that those are shipped out. Robin Shoemaker – Bear Stearns: Okay my other question is unrelated to that… is that I haven’t heard you say much about the acquisitions opportunities for NOV and clearly the acquisitions machine was working very much in overdrive a few years…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, we have time for one final question. That question is from Roger Read with Natexis, please go ahead.

Roger Read - Natexis Bleichroeder Inc.

Analyst

Good morning gentlemen. Clay back to the question on the margin side as you look between after market and new equipment and you know pretty impressive margins here in the third quarter what takes the margins higher or into the mid 20% range or where you indicated the incremental as sort of a mid upper 20’s the right way to think about it. I mean is there a way to push pricing on after market? Is there a way to push manufacturing efficiencies on either side? What pushes that going forward? Clay C. Williams – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: I really think continued good cost management is going to be the key to further margin expansion. And we feel pretty good about that. Like I mentioned we have a great team. You know we sort of lump all this stuff together but bear in mind there’s a lot of difference in contributions across the very broad mix of products that we sell. So, on the high end there’s a very sophisticated drilling system and top drives and rackers and iron rough nicks [ph] and pipe handlers drive the best margins but we also build a lot of led pits and sub structures and [inaudible] and we also have capacitors. We sell cad engines and capacitors to our customers as well. So a lot depends on the mix of the equipment overall. But all of that is being well managed and I think continued improvements in cost and manufacturing will be the key to further margin growth from here.

Roger Read - Natexis Bleichroeder Inc.

Analyst

Okay and kind of a follow up to that, given the shift to a way predominantly off shore and international; are the margins such on your international off shore orders that that’s favorable to more margin expansion or unfavorable? Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: You know that’s not really either one. It’s pretty consistent you know when you talk about a mud pump whether it goes on land or off shore that doesn’t make a whole lot of difference. We probably have a little some of the off shore stuff has a little bit more of the lower margin things such as cranes you know that’s a pretty competitive business. But I think overall the mixes and such that it would make a whole lot of difference in modeling.

Roger Read - Natexis Bleichroeder Inc.

Analyst

Okay, so it comes down to execution internally more than anything else at this point? Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Absolutely.

Roger Read - Natexis Bleichroeder Inc.

Analyst

Alright then, thanks. Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Thanks Roger.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and at this time I will turn the call back over to Mr. Miller for any closing remarks. Merrill A. Miller, Jr. – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Thank you [inaudible] and I appreciate everybody that called in and listened in and I look forward to talking to you again. We may have a call most likely in February with our year end results. Thank you very much for your interest.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the National Oilwell Varco third quarter 2007 earnings conference call. If you would like to listen to a replay of today’s conference call [Operator Instructions]. We thank you for your participation today, you may now disconnect.