Operator
Operator
Nokia Oyj (NOK)
Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 28, 2010
$12.46
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1 Month
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Operator
Operator
Kristian Pullola
Management
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Thank you, Kristian. Good morning and good afternoon. I said on the last earnings call that Q4 would be the best quarter of the year in terms of devices and services net sales, volumes, and margins. It was that and more. Q4 showed Nokia’s ability to ramp up new, more compelling offerings even in a tough competitive environment. NSN also delivered a strong quarter. I am very encouraged with the focus and execution that I see throughout the organization, both at Nokia and NSN. Before I provide some color on Q4, there’s one strategic item I’d like to talk about, our free navigation announcement last week. I want to emphasize what we offer is unique and game-changing. There are clear benefits for consumers, operators, and developers. This message is resonating with them and the feedback has been very positive. We are now providing free walk and drive navigation as an integral part of our smart phone offering. There are three things I think really are groundbreaking, one, how the solution advances the user experience; two, how the solution is beneficial for the operators; and, three, how the solution advances Nokia’s business strategy. First, with our new Ovi Maps client, we have dramatically improved the user experience. It’s much more intuitive and quick and we have upgraded the location search engine. Over time, we think Ovi Maps will enhance the daily lives of our consumers more and more as usage patterns increase and navigation evolves from being a stand-alone application to a platform that multiple services are blocked into. Using maps in mobile handsets will become as commonplace as taking pictures, and even more central and critical to the user experience. Second, for operators, how the solution is differentiated. In addition to driving the uptake of data plans, our Ovi Maps…
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
Thank you, Olli-Pekka. And good morning and good afternoon from my behalf as well. I’ll begin by providing some color on the dividend and our tax rate. The Nokia Board is recommending that shareholders approve a dividend of EUR 0.40 per share. This is the same as last year. The Board and management believe that this dividend payout strikes at a proper balance considering our liquidity position, our 2009 operative cash flow, and our expectations for 2010. At approximately EUR 1.5 billion payout in total, the dividend remains substantial and equates to approximately 60% of 2009 non-IFRS earnings Now on taxes, in Q4, Nokia’s non-IFRS taxes were negatively impacted by Nokia Siemens Network’s taxes since no tax benefits are recognized for certain deferred tax items. If Nokia’s long term estimated tax rate of 26% per 10% had been applied, non-IFRS EPS would have been EUR 0.01 higher. In the short term, the negative impact of NSN’s taxes on Nokia’s tax rate is expected to continue. We plan to highlight for you in the press release and earnings call whenever there are tax related differences so you can quickly adjust our published non-IFRS EPS results to make them apples-to-apples with your EPS estimates assuming that you are using a 26% tax rate in your models. Now let me take you through the Q4 results for devices and services. On a reported basis, devices and services net sales of EUR 8.2 billion were up 18% sequentially and up 0.5% year-on-year. A return to growth, on a constant currency basis, devices and services net sales were up 16% sequentially and up 2% year-on-year. The sequential increase was attributable to higher volumes, particularly in converged mobile devices as our expanded range of touch and QWERTY devices delivered strong growth. In Q4, we estimate that…
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Thank you, Timo. Q4 was the second quarter in a row where we saw a better demand environment in the mobile handset industry, and Nokia executed well. Our expanded portfolio of touch screen and QWERTY products which span across a range of price points continue to do well in Q4. Nokia has the best supply chain and distribution capabilities in the industry, and in Q4 we sold what we are capable of when we have a good portfolio. I want to see Nokia running again with a great portfolio, leveraging our advantages to their fullest extent. This is within our reach and I am encouraged by two things. First, the phase of change of Nokia is accelerating. And second, we are all focused on executing to achieve the clear operational milestones that we set at our Annual Capital Markets Day in December. Thank you very much.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Thank you, Olli-Pekka. We will now continue with the Q&A session. Please limit yourself to one question only. Operator, please go ahead.
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Time Boddy of Goldman Sachs.
Tim Boddy - Goldman Sachs
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Yes. Thank you. It’s obviously very encouraging to see the improvements in the smart phone business. My question is really about the sustainability of those improvements, particularly, looking at some of the N-series products, which are still contributing I think very meaningfully. Can you just help us by giving us a bit more granularity on which products in particular was successful this quarter? And also, as we go through the first half coming up to your new product releases, how you think some of these products will trend. Thanks very much.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Yes. It’s Olli-Pekka here. Thanks for the question. Like I pointed out in - right at the very end of my remarks, I really feel we have a good portfolio at this moment of time. But I made the point that we want to, and we need to, and we will have a great portfolio going forward. And hence, product announcements in line with that bill, will continue to happen. And definitely, we have been referring to the Symbian next-generation (inaudible) that will be out in the second half of the year. Exactly in line with what we spoke about in that the -- not the capital markets stay. Make no mistake, we will, and we need to improve here. But having said that, it’s quite clear that we were able to ramp up very nicely in Q4, and in that way expand our portfolio to cover more price points, more technologies. We grew 38% in Touch -- 34% in Touch, 38% in E-series sequentially, and definitely that came to play here. So I think the portfolio here is quite balanced. That’s sought in the performance. But it’s very clear that we are currently lagging the high-end mind-share product, and we are definitely working on that one and we’ll come out with that one. When it comes to the sustainability here, and that was the point you made in the beginning, I think this is very much a sustainable situation, more than sustainable, because I really see a possibility and need to move from good to great. And I think that definitely is the thinking. And looking at the (inaudible) we are making, I don't have at the moment any reason to change anything that we communicated at the CMD in early December. Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Piper Jaffray.
Mike Walkley - Piper Jaffray
Analyst · Mike Walkley with Piper Jaffray
Thank you. Congratulations on a strong results and execution. Just to follow up with some new products launched in Q4 momentum for some of the year, you have converged mobile devices, how should we think about ASP trends in Q1? Should we consider a better mix or season of growth and more the emerging markets to adversely impact and ASPs? And also could you just comment on year increase global handset inventory level comment and overall seasonal trends you give for the market in the March quarter? Thanks.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Okay, Timo here. Thanks for that. I mean, first of all we’re clearly very happy that our ASP was up that one year sequentially from Q3 to Q4. Now, we confirmed our guidance for 2010 that we expect our volume share to be approximately at the same level and to increase our value share slightly. So we are expecting that our ASP erosion would be slightly lower than the market. So that’s really what I can say there. And regarding the inventory situation, we ended the year with a normal level of inventory, but clearly there will be some seasonality going into Q1. But there is no big inventory to clear in the system at the moment.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Gardiner with Barclays Capital.
Andrew Gardiner - Barclays Capital
Analyst · Andrew Gardiner with Barclays Capital
Thanks very much. I have another question regarding the ASP, in particular in the fourth quarter. You've highlighted in the press release and said again in the call here that in addition to the positive mix shift that you saw, there was also a benefit from FX hedging. I was just wondering whether you could quantify the impact of the two drivers there and whether that FX hedging is going to remain an issue or is that a positive driver for the first quarter as well. Thank you.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
Yes. There was a slight effect on the foreign exchange, but we don't expect that that would be a material impact during Q1 at the moment.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from t line of Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer.
Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer
Analyst · Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer
Thank you. What I want to drill into is China specifically, and what it seems like continued really weak performance there. Can you give us little bit more color on the competitive environment there? What are you seeing? And how would you plan to address that issue?
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Yes. Thank you very much, Olli-Pekka here again. So if I look at China side. I think the competitive dynamics new China have to have continued pretty much in the same way. They are still low in competition there, yes, but that’s nothing new. So the competitive dynamics in China are more or less the same. They continue to be strong leader after distribution of the products.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
With China, I would like to point out, there’s quite a lot of volatility. Because I’ve kept -- I have a cap on this question now almost twice a year in these conference calls during the last three years. But I think it's because there’s quite a lot of quarterly volatility when it comes to market shares. And having that down sequentially in China, but in fact if you look at the comparison to Q4 of last year we've up because the channel dynamics come to play here. The way the Chinese channel gets filled, and then again the sale through have an impact on the market share. Because like you know we (inaudible) sell in out of the total sell out. And hence, you get this volatility. In China it’s better to look a bit long with the trend, which in our case has been very good. So be that in fact below our current markets there in Q4 in 2008. Of course, the China market is slowly starting to move in the way that also the TD-SCDMA market will become relevant with China Mobile, but that’s starting to happen. In fact, we did cut -- get our first real Symbian series 60 CDMS -- TD-SCDMA product out in the market place at the very end of the year. And we are really excited about the fact that we can now -- and will deliver also that technology. And there’s of course more to come because the Chinese consumers really want to buy Nokia. And there’s a lot of traction here in the market especially when it comes to TD-SCDMA. So I would not frankly read anything extraordinary when it comes to the market's development in China. The basic competitive dynamics continue to be the same.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
I will add one very quick thing here, a 30-second thing. So the Chinese New Year is clearly later. It’s later this year. It’s mid-February, and that affect those channel dynamics even more what Olli-Pekka has discussed here.
Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer
Analyst · Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer
Very good. Good luck.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Thank you. Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Sherief Bakr with Citi.
Sherief Bakr - Citi
Analyst · Sherief Bakr with Citi
Thank you very much. My question relates to the sustainability of your gross margin, clearly an impressive sequential move. But I think, Timo, as you highlighted, there were maybe some one of this quarter to royalties. I just want to think how we should be thinking about the sustainability of your gross margin moving into 2010 from the level that you've achieved in Q4. And I guess somewhat related to that, when you look at your market share expectations for 2010, do you think that your smart phone share will be higher than your overall industry share? Thank you.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Okay. Thanks for that. I mean, we pointed out that lumpy 80 basis points of the gross margins what we have this 34.3%. We are expecting some seasonality at the gross margin level as well going into Q1. And if we then look at the market share -- market share dynamics regarding smart phone, so our aim is really to grow the smart phone market. I mean, we are really expanding that market. And those dynamics should work positively for us regarding volume on the smart phones.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC.
Mark Sue - RBC
Analyst · Mark Sue with RBC
Thank you. Will the goal of an improved portfolio require a big ramp in operating expenses? Do you feel it'd make it harder to maintain your operating margin targets of 12% to 14% as you develop high-end mindshare products? And certainly, Olli-Pekka, any interests in making a tablet based on Symbian or Mimo?
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
I’ll take this, yes. Okay.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Timo volunteered, but I’ll take it anyhow, so. No, no. Of course, we are cutting out an overall investment here, in the investment level, in R&D that we feel is, of course, adequate then. And in order to come up with the different price points -- products, the different price points. Of course, the high-end investment is happening as we speak, both when it comes to Symbian and also when it comes to Linux or Mimo. So there is nothing new. And there is no need to ramp up anything new. The investment is happening. So in that way, I believe it’s definitely adequate. When it comes to the tablets and products like that, we did explore and are exploring as we speak with the Nokia booklet has capped and tremendous response in the market place. Of course, it’s more like exploring as opposed to do a product that will become the market leader. But I think that experience that we have gotten there, the traction we are getting, the understanding that we can deliver in different type of home factors to make us really look at the overall tablet markets and different types of converged devices between the mobile phone and the PC as these two industries start to merge anyhow. So you will see more in this space going forward without making any product announcements here.
Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer
Analyst · Mark Sue with RBC
Okay. Thank you
Kristian Pullola
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Griffin with Bank of America.
Andrew Griffin - Bank of America
Analyst · Andrew Griffin with Bank of America
Hi there. My question is just on the broader market inventory situation. (inaudible) you were talking about a fairly stable and manageable image situation in your channel. But we’ve seen one of your competitors and also CallComm last night talk a little bit about feature phone inventory reduction at some operators. I wonder if you could talk a bit more broadly about what you’re seeing in the market in the different regions.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
Yes. It's difficult to comment on other people's inventory of course. But as I said, we had a very low inventory starting this year. And we see that the situation has now normalized. And as I said, we are on the normal four to six weeks, and we are not really seeing in all -- in any regions any pocket of big inventory of Nokia products. So in that sense, the situation is healthy.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with J.P. Morgan.
Rod Hall - J.P. Morgan
Analyst · Rod Hall with J.P. Morgan
Yes. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask about Nokia team of networks quickly. Clearly, you’ve done well in the quarter, but you’re increasing the amount of restructuring that you’re reducing headcount. You’re also looking to substantially increase the cost savings. I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about the quality of the market. You’re talking about flat market development in 2010 after a pretty poor 2009, just give us some ideas whether you see a turning point on the horizon or whether you think that these poor conditions in the infrastructure market are just going to continue throughout the year.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Yes. Olli-Pekka here. I’ll take this one. So the market estimate we have given is flat market in euro terms, 2010 over 2009. And that’s what we reiterated again (inaudible) can reiterate again today. Then when it comes to NSN specifically, so like I said in my remarks, I think there's great momentum in the company now, and in that they've gotten some nice victories when it comes to LTE and 3T as well. And the mood in the organization is great. I have spent a lot of time with these people lately. And they really got nice momentum here. And that's always so important, what the people feel, how quickly can they run, how committed they are. And I think these people are basically -- they are able to read that the technology competitiveness of NSN has improved tremendously during 2009. And I definitely get the same feedback when I'm talking to NSN's customers. We've (inaudible) often the same customers as the Nokia customers. So in that way, that momentum is good. The restructuring we announced as well as the reorganization we announced in November, the point here is really to come to a level of OpEx during the economic -- once this restructuring has been concluded that is something that it really can deliver decent contribution to Nokia and Siemens and when it comes to the bottom line. That is the thinking here. The thinking definitely is that we should not stop here. We should not be happy in -- on the levels we are or can be right now bearing in mind also the -- what we said about Q1. We need to be able to do better. And hence, the breakeven point needs to be lower even more. And we have been really good in being able to move the big bulk of the R&D to local (inaudible) as well here so the breakeven point has been lowered. That work needs to continue. And the ambition level here needs to be pretty high. I think they've got the ingredients here, a lot of the ingredients. But we need to be able to continue to be more efficient and continue to invest in R&D in the right way. That I see happening. This will not -- all that I'm talking about will not happen overnight, but I think the momentum is good.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
Yes, maybe if I comment from the -- very briefly on the numbers. So as Olli-Pekka was saying, the operating leverage has increased significantly during the year. I mean we had EUR 4.3 billion net sales a quarter -- a year ago, now a little EUR 3.6 billion. And operating margin level actually improved slightly, both by having been over 5%. And this is really the trend we want to continue here.
Rod Hall - J.P. Morgan
Analyst · Rod Hall with J.P. Morgan
Okay. And when you guys look at the -- I mean you look at the broader market and clearly indicating that organic revenue decline doubled in Q4. Olli-Pekka or Timo, could you guys comment on how you see -- saw the infrastructure market developing in Q4 from your perspective. Was it a worsening environment? Was it fairly stable on Q3? Could you just talk a little bit about that?
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
If you look at the NSN performance and look at the -- now look at the growth rates or negative growth rates here in this case in comparison to the -- to 2008. So definitely, NSN's -- the -- NSN has improved on their performance during the year here. The negative growth rate was much less in Q4 than it was in Q3. And in fact, and this might be too early to say because all the data is not there, but I believe we took markets in NSN in Q4. That's my (inaudible) at the moment.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
There's one more NSN related item I would like to correct. I said that NSN contributed to Nokia's net cash worth EUR 480 million. This is actually negative EUR 480 million. So NSN has net debt. And it's a -- it's part of that net debt, which comes to Nokia that is negative EUR 480 million.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Gareth Jenkins with UBS.
Gareth Jenkins - UBS
Analyst · Gareth Jenkins with UBS
Thanks, two very quick ones. I just wondered if you could give us a sense of the percentages or portfolio in Q4 that was nearly launched and what you expect that to be in Q1. And then just secondly on this definitional shift of active users because it looks like you've effectively turned off 20 million active users. By that can we mean that there are basically users that aren't using the device after, say, three months? And can you give us a sense of the regularity of usage please?
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
Yes. On the new products revenue as part of the portfolio, we are not expecting a significant difference from Q4 to Q1, about the same level or maybe a bit down. So that's what I would say there. Do you want to talk about the active users or should I?
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
You can take it, and I can complement.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
So on the active user console, so clearly -- I mean this is a new measure for us and we are improving this KPI for the company. And of course when we went in, there was a quite a bigger pool of consumers who were sort of active, but not that active. And we have now really tightened the definition of the active users. So as our understanding of this consumer behavior, it's getting better that we measure really consumers who are active on our services.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
I might point after that, and of course, this overall active users, it's one measure. It's a high level measure that we have used for communication also internally in order to drive change at Nokia. Of course they are as -- there are much more different types of metrics that we are able to increasingly follow. A good example of this is the -- when we launched the (inaudible) navigation last week. We have been able to follow that completely, how it happens in different parts of the world, what are the users doing, who are the (inaudible), and so forth and so forth. So this high level active users metrics is -- it maybe good for folks for some kind of communication purposes, especially internal and also external because it tells the direction. But of course, the underlying metrics and the ability to manage the services business in a closed loop fastened, that's much more complex. And we have made great progress in that.
Kristian Pullola
Management
All right. Could we please have one question more.
Operator
Operator
Your final question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse.
Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse
Analyst · Credit Suisse
My question is on smart phone pricing. Basically, I think when you have -- last time, you had such a surge of products around Q2. You did quite well in the smart phone share, but is your difficulty pricing are what you expected? What were you thinking about the pricing environment on smart phones as you go for the first half of this year? With this portfolio, do you have more confidence since the middle of last year? And also taking into account -- what in fact you think happens on exclusivity in having the European market and your availability to trade up the same ASP and gross margin (inaudible) smart phones? Thanks very much.
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo
Management
Yes, I mean the smart phone development clearly depends also on the range. I mean I must say that we are very happy with the ASP we had on the smart phone sequentially now from EUR 190 millions, down to EUR 186 million, and significant improvement in net sales going forward. This will really, really depend on the dynamics of the overall market. And our aim is really to grow the market here, and in that sense, bring the smart phones to new price points. So it's fair to expect some erosion on the ASP to continue going into first quarter.
Timo Ihamuotila
Management
Yes. And I'll take the Apple question one more time. So it's really the -- if you look at the situation in Europe here, it's very difficult to compare this very directly because here we've got two companies who have very different strategies. We of course understand the need and I spoke about that at the high end mind -- set of products as well. But I our strategy at the moment when we are democratizing [ph] the smart phone. It needs to go at different price points, different markets, different operators in a massive way. So there's nothing new here. This has been the situation in Q4 as well. Apple continues to be a great competitor, no doubt about that. But we've got our assets as well.
Kristian Pullola
Management
Thank you, Olli-Pekka. Thank you, Timo. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference call. I would like to remind you that during the conference call today, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involves risks and uncertainties. Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results currently expected. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external just as -- such as general economic conditions as well as industry conditions, as well as internal operating factors. We had identified these in more detail on pages 11 to 28 in our 2008 20-F and in our press release issued today. Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.