Nicholas O'Grady
Analyst · SunTrust.
Yes. So I mean, I think I'll give you an ironic statement which is that, for the better part of the year, the Williston has been capacity-constrained and so our LOE has been somewhat elevated because wells were curtailed from what they could. So we carried some cost of operating them, even though they weren't running at full capacity. But what I would tell you is, one of the big drivers of that's going to be that -- as I mentioned in my prepared comments that LOE will drop dramatically, as these wells are curtailed, because you're not hauling water, you're not paying for electricity and you're not working those wells over. And so there will be some time lag to that, and it will depend -- operator to operator, how that starts to feed into our system. We're taking a pretty conservative tact, to be honest with you, about -- of those overall impacts and what we carry. Obviously, for the wells that are producing, it's going to matter of what are the marketing agreements for those barrels. I would imagine, just being economic creatures, the barrels that are still producing and not being curtailed are going to be those that satisfy contracts that are the most favorable. And so what I mean by that is that, the netbacks and the in-basin pricing which can happen when prices are this low, can have a huge impact on the net revenue. And so I think that with -- in recent periods, we've seen in-basin pricing rally strongly. So far the barrels that are producing and that are sold in-basin, I think you're going to see better pricing certainly than we would have expected even a few weeks ago. But then the question is going to be, how quickly does the cost burden come down? And then the third variable, obviously, is just the realized gains on our hedges. And so in some -- as I mentioned, there are some scenarios in which we can actually see increasing cash flow, certainly, if oil prices go back to negative $37, we can make more money than we would, if the wells are actually producing. And so I think it's just going to be the cocktail of those variables that drives the aggregate cash flow levels. But what I would say is that, you can run some free mean-spirited outcomes, and ultimately, those hedge values are pretty sticky. And so -- and the market is fairly flexible, for most of these volumes, they can be -- if pricing rallies really hard to which extent that our hedge gains would be coming off some, those volumes can return to sales quite quickly, within a few weeks, in most cases. And so I think that we're going to find that range to be pretty accurate.