James F. Palmer
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thanks, Wes, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. As Wes said, just another solid quarter. Our team continues to execute in a demanding environment, and I also want to express my sincere appreciation to them for their continuing dedication. My comments will focus on sector results and our cash outlook for the year. So starting with the sectors. Aerospace, where sales declined by $65 million or 3%. The volume decline was largely in space programs and unmanned systems, with the unmanned volume decline primarily due to lower production activities on Global Hawk and Fire Scout. These declines were partially offset by higher volume on the NATO AGS program. Operating income increased by 20% due to strong performance and a $48 million increase in net favorable adjustments. The higher level of adjustments was across several contracts, none of which were material on an individual basis. For the year, we continue to expect sales to range between $9.7 billion and $9.9 billion, and we expect AS will have a margin rate in the high 11% range, versus our prior guidance of mid to high 11%. Turning to Electronic Systems, first quarter sales declined by 4% due to timing of deliveries for various combat avionics programs, as well as the lower deliveries of navigation and maritime systems. Declines in these areas were partially offset by double-digit growth in international activities. Operating income declined 9% and operating margin rate declined by 90 basis points. You might recall that last year's first quarter benefited from the reversal of a $26 million non-programmatic risk reserve. While this year, ES had favorable adjustments of $57 million, which were $23 million lower than last year. So for the year, we continue to expect sales of $6.8 billion to $7 billion, with an operating margin rate in the low to mid 15% range. At Information Systems, first quarter sales declined by 6% or about $100 million. IS experienced lower funding across a broad number of programs, including a decline in about $40 million due to in-theater troop drawdowns. The decline in IS first quarter operating income was in line with that lower revenue, and operating margin rate was comparable to last year's first quarter. For the year, we continue to expect sales at IS to range between $6.1 billion and $6.2 billion, and we now expect that IS margin rate in the high 9% range versus our prior guidance of mid 9%. Moving to Technical Services, first quarter sales declined 3%. Lower revenues reflect volume declines for the Hunter and ICBM programs, partially offset by higher volume for the KC-10 program. During the quarter, we completed the acquisition of Qantas defense systems, and TS operating income and operating margin rate increased due to improved performance. For the year, we continue to expect sales of approximately $2.7 billion, with a high 8% margin rate. On a consolidated basis, first quarter segment operating margin rate improved to 12.9%, 60 basis points, and included a $23 million increase in net favorable adjustments. The remaining performance improvements reflects the higher booking rates across our portfolio that resulted in part from EAC adjustments in prior quarters. As a result of this quarter's strong performance, we're increasing our full year guidance for segment operating margin rate to approximately 12%, and we now expect a total operating margin rate of approximately 13%. I would also note that we had a lower tax rate this quarter. This quarter's 23 point -- 26.3% effective tax rate reflects a $51 million benefited -- benefit related to the partial resolution of the IRS examination of our 2007 to 2009 tax returns. This quarter's benefit from the partial resolution of that IRS exam is higher than what we had assumed in our initial 2014 guidance. And as a result, we now expect an effective tax rate of about 31.5% for the year. Last year's first quarter effective tax rate includes a $20 million benefit related to the reinstatement of the research tax credits. On the other hand, our 2014 guidance does not include the potential renewal of the R&D tax credit at this point. Our lower effective tax rate, combined with this quarter's strong segment operating income, were the primary drivers of the increase in our 2014 EPS guidance. Turning to cash from operations, we used $402 million in the quarter. That cash use was principally driven by changes in trade working capital, largely influenced by the timing of cash receipts, including the burn-down of international advances. As you know, the first quarter is typically our lowest quarter for cash generation, and we are seeing this same trend this year, but there are a couple of items that also drove the higher working capital. And that is on the balance sheet that advanced payments declined by more than $200 million from year end, and as I mentioned earlier, that material rate decline resulted from the burn-down of international advances. Also, you may recall that we had a very strong cash generation at the end of last year, some of which was a pull-forward of payments for aerospace programs that we would've expected in the first quarter of this year. Free cash flow for the quarter was the use of $462 million, with capital spending in the quarter of $60 million, up from $40 million last year. We did continue to expect capital spending of approximately $600 million for the year, capital spending to support the establishment of our centers of excellence will be ramping up in the second quarter. And as many of you know, our capital spending is typically weighted towards the second half of the year, which will also be the case this year. As Wes indicated, we're comfortable with our 2014 cash outlook from cash from operations and free cash flow. One final item before I turn the call over to Steve for questions and answers. And that at sometime later this year, the Society of Actuaries is expected to finalize new guidance for mortality assumptions. For national reporting purposes, these new assumptions are likely to be in effect at year-end 2014 for the measurement of our projected benefit obligations. If that is the case, these new assumptions would then impact 2015 FAS pension expense. The mortality assumptions used in the trend in our future CAS expenses would also need to be revised. The new assumptions, when fully implemented, will likely result in increased liabilities, increased annual FAS and CAS pension expense and potentially, increased funding requirements depending upon the funding status of the affected plans. This applies in all cases, holding all other assumptions constant, and with no change to applicable funding regulations. In our case, even if the new mortality assumptions were to be immediately required for funding purposes, year 2016, we would not expect a substantial increase in required plan contributions, given our plan's funded status, our prior contributions and, of course, holding all other assumptions constant. So Steve, with that, I'd like to invite everybody [ph] for Q&A.