James F. Palmer
Analyst · Cai Von Rumohr from Cowen & Company
I think, Cai, I think there's an advantage to have a very well-funded plan. There are some practical limits to that as well. And so, if and when we see a move-up in interest rates that reduces the liabilities back to, frankly, a move back to more historical levels, you're right, that will significantly improve the otherwise underfunded situation that we see today. Given where interest rates are, not only is a 25 basis point move in discount rate, which we talked about being potentially 100 basis points lower, and contributing to the pension expense of $75 million to $80 million, a 25 basis points move to $750 million of liability, pension liability. So you're right in observing that a move-up if and when we get that in terms of interest rates, will have a significant impact on funded situation of the plans. And we do, just like with a view of the company, this is a long-term decision that we made for providing employee benefits for our employees. We need to think about it in that way. I don't have significant cash contributions. I don't have any -- it might require contributions next year, at this point, look to be in the range of, let's call it $75 million. So not a significant use of cash. But as we've mentioned before, when you think about our cash deployment across the total opportunity set that we see, we clearly want to invest in the business and continue our, I think, leading portfolio. We want to manage the liability side of our balance sheet by both investing in the pension plans when it makes sense. We have debt that matures in only the next couple of years, and so we need to be thinking about what we want to do there, whether we replace it or pay it off when that matures. And then ultimately, we'll return excess cash to shareholders. Our view really hasn't changed, and we need to think about the pension plan on a long-term basis, and if and when we do see changes in interest rates moving up, it will improve the funded situation of the plans and likely will have a similar impact on our required funding.