Kevin Habicht
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Brad, your line is live
Thanks, Steve. And as usual, I will start with the cautionary statement that we will make certain statements that could be maybe considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. The company’s actual future results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements and we may not release revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect changes after the statements were made. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are disclosed from time-to-time in greater detail in the company’s filings with the SEC and in this morning’s press release. With that out of the way, yes, headlines from this morning’s press release report quarterly core FFO results of $0.80 per share for the fourth quarter of 2022, that’s up $0.05 or 6.7% over year ago results of $0.75 per share and full year 2022 core FFO results were $3.14 per share, which is a strong 9.8% increase over year ago results. Today, we also reported that AFFO per share was $0.81 per share for the fourth quarter and that’s up $0.04 per share or 5.2% over 4Q 2021 results. As usual, we did footnote fourth quarter AFFO included $681,000 of deferred rent repayment in our accrued rental income adjustment for the fourth quarter without which would have produced AFFO of $0.80 per share for the quarter. Likewise, the full year of 2022 AFFO included $5.4 million of deferred rent repayments in our accrued rental income adjustment without which would have produced AFFO of $3.18 per share for the full year and that represents an 8.9% increase over the similarly adjusted $2.92 per share results in 2021. These scheduled deferred rent repayments and they continue to taper off materially in 2023, as you can see in the details that we provided on Page 13 of the press release, but the headline growth of 9.8% core FFO per share in 2022 is a very good result for us and notably above our historic mid single-digit growth rate. Admittedly, we did have some tailwinds in 2022, which added something probably in the $0.09 to $0.10 per share range for the annual results. These tailwinds, which we have talked about in prior calls, included some of the refinancing we did in 2021 most notably redeeming our 5.2% preferred which probably added $0.03 a share. We also – there was a $3.3 million increase in our cash basis deferred rent repayments in 2022. We did resume full rent from Chuck E. Cheese in 2022 that added about $3.3 million of rent at the beginning of the year. And we did have one less executive position, which generated some G&A savings in ‘22. Of course, layered on top of all of that, we entered 2022 with $171 million of cash on the balance sheet, which created some notable accretion once that got invested, but a good year. But let me move on. Our AFFO dividend payout ratio for the full year 2022 was approximately 67% and that created about $188 million of free cash flow after the payment of all expenses and dividends for the full year. As we think about it, this free cash flow funded over 40% of the equity needed to fund our 2022 acquisitions. Occupancy was 99.4% at quarter end. That’s flat with the prior quarter and up 40 basis points for the year. G&A expense came in at $10.8 million for the quarter, and that’s up from $9.9 million year ago levels. But more importantly, probably for the full year, G&A expense was $41.7 million and that’s down 6.6% from 2021 and it represented approximately 5.4% of total revenues and side note 5.6% of NOI. We ended the quarter ended the year with $772 million of annual base rent in place for all leases as of December 31, 2022. Today, we also introduced 2023 guidance with a core FFO per share guidance range of $3.14 to $3.20 per share and an AFFO guidance range of $3.19 to $3.25 per share. Core FFO guidance suggests about 1% growth to the midpoint in 2023. The more modest growth in 2023 guidance reflects the high bar of last year’s 9.8% growth that was created and the lack of tailwinds that were helpful in 2022 that I just outlined. And one particular headwind in 2023, I will mention in a moment. All of this is coupled with the slow repricing of cap rates on new acquisitions that we are all dealing with, but it’s coming along, price discovery, like I say, continues to move along. The supporting assumptions for our 2023 guidance are on Page 7 of today’s press release and include $500 million to $600 million of acquisitions, 100 to 200 – I’m sorry, $100 million to $120 million of dispositions and G&A expense of $43 million to $45 million. We modeled acquisitions at – running at 30% in the first half of 2023 and 70% in the second half of 2023, a little more back-end weighted than our more typical kind of 40-60 assumption. As we typically do, we have assumed 100 basis points of rent loss in our guidance and that’s a general assumption despite the fact that we usually experience less than half of that amount of rent loss. The one headline – I am sorry headwind of note in 2023 is the scheduled $5.8 million slowdown in the cash basis deferred rent repayment. And again, that’s detailed on Page 13 in the press release. Tenants continue to repay these rent deferrals on time, but what is owed is slowing notably. As usual, we don’t give guidance on any of our capital markets assumptions regarding our capital markets activity except for the general assumptions that we intend to behave in a fairly leverage-neutral manner over the long run. We are hopeful we can move our guidance higher through 2023 as we have done in most years. But for now, this is where we feel comfortable. Quick side note on our AFFO guidance, Page 13 details the slowdown we faced on the accrual basis, deferred rent repayments which has weighed on our headline AFFO growth in recent quarters. With these repayments largely completed, our 2023 AFFO per share guidance is back to its usual relationship with our Core FFO, meaning the annual AFFO is normally a few pennies more than Core FFO, and that’s reflected in our guidance today. Let me switch over to the balance sheet. We maintain a good leverage and liquidity profile with over $900 million of bank line availability. Fourth quarter was fairly quiet in terms of capital market activity. We did issue a $121 million of equity in the fourth quarter, executing trades and the $45 plus per share level. If you think about our funding of last year’s $848 million of acquisitions, equity issuance funded $250 million of that, operating cash flow after dividends funded $188 million and property dispositions funded $65 million. Sum of those three being $504 million, and that’s about 60% of our total acquisitions funded with those equity sources. After a few years of nearly no usage, we did begin to use our bank line a bit in 2022, largely because we can. Our weighted average debt maturity is now a little over 13 years, which seems to be among the longest in the industry. Our net debt maturity is $350 million with a 3.9% coupon in mid-2024, and all of our debt outstanding is fixed rate with the exception of the $166 million on our bank line, which represents about 4% of our total debt outstanding. A couple of stats – net book to gross – sorry, net debt to gross book assets was 40.4%. Net debt-to-EBITDA was 5.4x, interest coverage and fixed charge coverage for us is 4.7x. So we’re in very good shape to navigate the elevated capital market uncertainties and continue to grow per share results, which in our minds is the primary measure of success. The sector’s acquisition volume growth focus over the past 2 years has downshifted in recent months as the marketplace seeks to adjust to the new environment and appears to be getting a little more disciplined on price, which we think is a better environment. I’ve gone on long enough. Let me add, Jenny, with that, we will open it up to any questions.