Kevin Habicht
Analyst · Citibank
Thanks, Jay. And as usual, I'll start with their cautionary statement that we will make certain statements that may be considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities law. The company's actual future results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements and we may not release revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect changes after the statements were made. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are disclosed from time to time in greater detail in the company's filings with the SEC and in this morning's press release. With that, headlines from this morning's press release report quarterly core FFO results of $0.70 per share for the third quarter of 2019, which is 4.5% higher than prior year results and consistent with our projections. These results along with our current view of the fourth quarter allowed us to raise our full year 2019 core FFO per share guidance to a level producing 4% growth to the midpoint versus our 2018 results and we do all of this while maintaining a strong and liquid balance sheet. We increased our annual dividend for the 30th consecutive year in the third quarter and our AFFO dividend payout ratio for the first nine months of 2019 was 72.2%. Occupancy was 99.1% at September 30th and that's up 30 basis points versus the prior quarter. G&A expense was 5.2% of revenues for the third quarter and 5.5% for the first nine months of 2019. For purposes of modeling future results, the annual base rent for all leases in place as of September 30 2019 was $658.3 million and this allows you to take some of the guess work or estimation out of timing of Q3 acquisitions and dispositions for purposes of making projections that start October 1 of 2019. As you all know, the capital market environments for both debt and equity have been favorable. We opted to take advantage of the opportunity to raise $435 million of common equity in the third quarter. For the first nine months of 2019, we raised $522 million of equity at a net price just over $54 per share. Third quarter dispositions totaled $33.5 million and first nine-month dispositions totaled $95 million. So this $95 million of disposition proceeds plus the $522 million of common equity raise plus approximately $94 million of retained operating cash flow and that's after all dividend payments, that totaled $711 million of equity-like capital raised in the first nine months of 2019, which notably totals the midpoint of our 2019 acquisition guidance. As we've noted in the past and consistent with the past couple of decades, we expect to behave in a relatively leverage neutral manner over-time, but we remain in a very good leverage and liquidity position, which will allow us to maintain an active acquisition effort into 2020. As Jay mentioned, we did raise our 2019 core FFO guidance by raising the lower end by $0.03 and the top-end by a penny to a revised range of $2.74 to $2.77 per share. Additionally, we increased our acquisition guidance by $100 million to $650 million to $750 million. But otherwise, the underlying assumptions are largely unchanged. We expect G&A expense to end up at about $37 million to $38 million or 5.6% of revenues for the full year of 2019 and note that, that includes $2.3 million of income taxes, which I know a number of REITs report on a separate line item. This core FFO guidance excludes the estimated $9.9 million of preferred stock redemption charge that will show-up in the fourth quarter in connection with the redemption of our 5.7% preferred stock in October. And you can get details of our 2019 guidance on page seven of today's press release. Likewise, this morning we introduced 2020 core FFO guidance of $2.83 to $2.87 and AFFO guidance of $2.90 to $2.94 per share, which implies 3% to 4% growth in per share results, which is consistent with where we started guidance for growth in 2019. Assumptions for 2020 guidance include one, $550 million to $650 million of acquisitions in the mid-6 cap range; two, G&A expense of $42 million to $43 million, which we approximate to be 5.9% of revenues; three, no change in occupancy; four, property expenses net of reimbursement of $8 million to $9 million for the year and five, property dispositions of $80 million to $120 million. I'll note the G&A expense increase is largely connected with stock-based compensation expense as well as a little bit of headcount growth here at NNN. We don't give guidance on our capital market plans, but you should expect our behavior to remain consistent with the past 25 years, meaning that we will maintain a conservative leverage profile and get capital when it's available and well-priced, all with a multi-year view of managing the company in the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with no amounts outstanding on our $900 million bank line and $354 million of cash. We did use $287.5 million of that cash to redeem our 5.7% preferred stock in October right after quarter-end. As Jay mentioned, notably, we were able to redeem this preferred equity with common equity on an accretive basis, which does not happen often with a 5.7% coupon on the preferred. The weighted average outstanding balance on our bank line for the first nine months of 2019 was $8 million, continuing several years of very modest bank line usage and maintaining significant liquidity. Leverage metrics remain very strong. Our next debt maturity is in October 2022 and our weighted average debt maturity is now 8.6 years. So our balance sheet remains in good position to fund future acquisitions and weather potential economic and capital market turmoil. Looking briefly at quarter-end leverage metrics; net debt to gross book assets was 33.8% as you know were not -- haven't found market cap based leverage metrics particularly relevant and we don't manage around those. Net debt to EBITDA was 4.7 times at September 30th. Interest coverage was 5.0 times and fixed charge coverage was 3.9 times for the nine months. Both of those metrics were 20 basis points higher than year-end 2018. Only five of our 3,057 properties were encumbered by mortgages totaling $12 million. So we work to source capital when it's available and well-priced. We work to deploy capital when we can get risk adjusted returns that are sufficiently accretive on a per share basis. Sometimes raising capital and deploying capital makes sense nearly simultaneously, but certainly not always. We attempt to keep the capital raising and the capital deploying decisions somewhat separated in our minds. Well-priced capital doesn't validate paying above market for our property. Our share price going up $2 a share doesn't make the property down the street worth more. This approach has helped produce solid returns over many years. 2019 looks to be another year of solid growth in operating results and the comps for multiple prior years are not easy and 2020 has the opportunity to be more of the same. Our investment strategy in terms of property type and tenant type and our balance sheet strategy have been very consistent for many years. Tom, with that we will open it up for any questions.