Earnings Labs

NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 4, 2008

$43.60

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the National Retail Properties Incorporated Fourth Quarter 2007 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Craig Macnab, Chief Executive Officer for National Retail Properties Incorporated. Thank you Mr. Macnab, you may begin.

Craig Macnab - CEO

Management

Doug, thank you. And good afternoon to all of you, and welcome to our 2007 year-end earnings release call. On this call with me is Kevin Habicht, our Chief Financial Officer, who will review details of our fourth quarter and year-end financial results after my opening comments. NNN had a record year in 2007, and we are very pleased with our performance. More importantly, we are encouraged about the way that National Retail Properties is positioned for 2008. Our balance sheet is strong, our tenant supplying range and performance is satisfactorily, and we are seeing terrific deal flow. Our portfolio continues to be in great shape with over 98% of our properties occupied with very limited lease rollover in 2008. A high level of property is attributable to the quality of our fully diversified net lease retail portfolio. We currently own 908 properties, lease to just over 200 different national or regional tenants in 44 states. These tenants operate in over 30 different segments of the retail industry which provides us with very broad diversification. Finally, on average these tenants are contractually obligated to pay us rent for the next 13 years. Our two largest tents are both profitable, publicly traded convenience store chains, namely the pantry and successor. At the corporate level the range coverage from both of these tenants is excellent. In the case of the pantry, rent coverage for the most recent 12 months was just over four times, and while I am not probe today in the details, but I can tell you that NNNs portfolio includes many of their higher performance tools including multiple properties that we earn in and around Charlotte, North Carolina. Successor has recently completed a significant acquisition of a regional Texas-based chain, and if we use their pro forma numbers following…

Operator instruction

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Jonathan Litt with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Greg

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Hi, it’s Greg (Srivastava) here with John. Could you comment on how you plan to fund these 300-400 million of acquisition obviously this year?

Kevin Habicht

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Greg, we are looking at a variety of different portfolios. There are multiple opportunities out there in the market place and with carefully underwriting all of these, we are finding some good opportunities and we are yet to close most of these deal, and we will have to see what we close.

Greg

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Do you have any sense on the timing for possible refinancing?

Kevin Habicht

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

I think if we are planning to do 300 to 400 million first quarter price and we see today should be just pick a percent, divide that number by four. There are couples of other deals that we are looking at right now, and at this stage, it's premature to say whether any of them will fall into the first quarter.

Craig Macnab

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

I think, if you look at our disposition for the year, which we mentioned were about 80 million from the core portfolio, if you layer in this net disposition, if you well from our TRS which will continue to see good activity there and selling those properties, I think it will be a net seller of properties in that entity, we looked at the moment to the tune of $50 to 70 million, we have about $40 million of retained earnings. So all of those things are somewhat self funding of acquisition, plus we do have the capacity and the balance sheet that allows us to add leverage if we so choose.

Greg

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thanks. And then just on….

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Great, if I could just – if we think about the balance sheet capacity, you have about 300-400 million, but currently set from the credit facility. Now, should we expect an unsecured debt offering in the near future and how should we think about the pricing of that, because near term given where LIBOR is, there is going to be benefit from keeping a balance down the line?

Kevin Habicht

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

I think one of the things that we tried very hard to do is make sure, we got choices. There is no doubt about it, the spreads of treasuries, if we are to do a debt offering and I emphasize if, are much higher than they were the last time, we did a debt offering, but by the same token the treasury yields are much lower, so the actual cost if we were to do a debt offering is about the same. Right now LIBOR is clearly very inexpensive, but one of things, that we spend a great deal of time talking about internally and will continue to execute always to make sure we have access to a variety of different types of capital. So we are currently borrowing under our bank facility and we will see what happens based on our needs for capital as the year rolls out.

Greg

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

And then Craig, just one more on tenants credit. Do you have any specific tenant concerns given the fullback we seen in the economy?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Greg, I don’t think so. Right now we're paying a great deal of attention to which there is no doubt about it, some of the tenants are not performing as well as they have in the past. The restaurant companies are going to face not only slower sales environment, but higher cost environment. So that’s going to impact them. Our exposure to that sector is not extensive, #1. And #2, our restaurant portfolio is very, very diversified. I think we've got about 50 different tenants in that area. One of the things that I would like you to focus in on, on the defensive attributes of convenience stores. And, some of those companies are reporting numbers. They're not seeing the kind of growth that they have in the past. But don't underestimate that if the price of oil comes down cost of crude comes down and margins expand which of course is good for us from a credit standpoint. But right now our portfolio's is in pretty good shape.

Greg

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Are you looking at any more restaurant deal?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

We are absolutely looking at all kinds of deals including restaurant deals. We've in the last couple of weeks passed on several restaurant deals just 'cause we didn't think the risk adjusted returns were what they needed to be.

Greg

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question.

David Fick

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Good afternoon. Just focusing back since most of our growth is now coming from acquisitions. And I realize you're looking at everything under the sun, Craig. But could you just if you had to guess where, you've given guidance on acquisitions so you must have some sense of the specifics. Where are you going to be concentrating in terms of product price and yields? And how comfortable are you with the convenient stores growing as an element in a percentage of your assets under control?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Yeah. In the near term most of the convenient store fields that we close on will be going into our joint venture with our institutional partner. So far we've acquired about $65 million of properties there. We expect to acquire about $220 million of properties in that convenient store joint venture when it’s fully funded. First we'll also add small amounts of convenient stores into our investment portfolio. We're looking at a wide variety of transactions currently as I mentioned to Greg a moment ago certainly we are looking at some restaurant deals. We're looking at convenient store deals. And if you go down our categories we're looking at deals in most of the categories that you see at the top of our list.

David Fick

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Is it fair to say that you're not anticipating growing the big bucks segment or the – to say best buy Home Depot those type assets?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Yeah. You asked in your opening question and I didn't fully answer that. This year we are internally using 8.5% as the cap rate on average that ultimately works its way through our budget. And the types of tenants you've mentioned with new leases, we're not able to get those kinds of yields.

David Fick

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Well, it would seem fair then to say that the majority of your acquisitions are going to have to be focused outside of the joint venture on the restaurant area. Is that fair?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

I don't think that’s accurate, no.

David Fick

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Where else do you expect to be investing?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Well, David, we're looking at, if you take a look in our press release. Just can we do that right now.

David Fick

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

And we’ll -- I think everybody's aware of what you own today. The issue is, how can you get 8% or better yields without running the risk curve out a little bit further in your portfolio. As I think, it has been reasonable for you to do over the last few years. But you're now getting to the point where a pretty big portion is coming from credit that is not strong as historically it had been?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

There is no doubt about it. The credit on some the deals we are doing today are not as good as Walgreen's credit, there is no doubt about that. But let me tell you that we are very carefully underwriting each and every one of these deals. The rent coverage both at the corporate level, and at the store level is more than sufficient in today's retail sales environment. And then the real estate fundamentals that we also look a, are more than acceptable.

David Fick

Analyst · David Fick with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Good afternoon, Craig.

Craig

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Hi, Jeff.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Maybe I am barking up the same tree, but I am curious. Are you guys seeing opportunities or increasing number of opportunities to help, I guess, of helping distressed retailers, or retailers out there who are having difficulty obtaining credit or refinancing loans, and I guess are extended beyond retailers into restaurants and other services too?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

See, I think that one of the reasons that the deal flow right now is so good is that where two years ago companies could issue their most, perhaps their junk-type bid in single-digit type yields, today that paper is no longer available. So as they value sale/lease backs, it is so much more attractive for them, and that there are just a lot of deals in the marketplace right now. Some of these deals are from companies that have not considered sale/lease backs in the last 12 or even 24 months. It is just a lot of product in the market right now.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Does that tell you though, that maybe you should be sitting back on the sidelines and waiting. You know, I think I asked you this in the last quarter as well, because if the financing markets are tough right now, and I am guessing there are not a lot of well-capitalized buyers out there, are you better off to sit back on the sidelines and maybe have a little stress on the asset pricing, rather than just diving right in?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Let me tell you what we are doing. The first thing we are doing, is we are underwriting to current levels of retail performance, number. #2, we are cherry-picking from most of the deal flow that we see which we think is the most attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. And the most attractive does not mean necessarily the highest yield. What it means is the safest yield for the return we are getting. Just getting higher yields does not make a deal more attractive.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Just one last set of questions, can you talk a little bit about what has been happening with the spreads between initial cash yields and borrowing spreads in the last few months, and what sort of returns do you think investors are underwriting today?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

What type of investors, Jeff?

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

What type of total returns investors are underwriting today, on MetLife?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

What we are looking at is through a combination of initial yield, pick a number 8.5%, and then bumps over the duration on an unleveraged basis you’re getting to 10% of that numbers.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Do you think that is where the market is?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

I think that is probably better than where the market is. We are selling some properties right now, at prices that the total return will be unleveraged 7.5 to 8 in the quarter.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

And just one last question and I am curious, if the transaction market, while there is a lot of product out there, it appears to have slowed. What impact can that have on your ability to either acquire into assets in ‘08, do you think -- there some reasonable risk of either lower earnings contribution, whether it is you guys or some of your competitors, from that activity or just a risk of a longer hold period, any result on that?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

You know, I think you are overstating the fact that there is lots of product in the market. I think one of the most important things is what I said earlier, that companies such as Natural Retail Properties, and you cover another one that is very similar, we are both in terrific shape right now. We have had good balance sheets, and we are cash buyers. The difference as we look at the competitive market place is that one year ago, 15 months ago, somebody who just could articulate a couple of sentences consecutively, could borrow money to do whatever deals and get a great return. Today being a cash buyer are just far more opportunities and to be honest the quality of some of these deals is very, very good. You know, one of reasons in my opening comments I talked about the rent coverage of our two bigger tenants both of which are around four times rent coverage of the last 12 months pro forma numbers. That’s a pretty safe deal, it’s based I can tell, and if we didn’t get un-leveraged 10% type returns from those, I think it beats most of the other deals that companies in your coverage ratio, coverage portfolio we are getting.

Jeff Donnelly

Analyst · Jeff Donnelly, with Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Dustin Pizzo with Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Dustin Pizzo with Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Hi this is (Inaudible) with Dustin Pizzo. I want to follow up on the restaurant question. What is the average rent coverage for the restaurant sector within the portfolio?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Dustin Pizzo with Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question

To be honest I don’t have that number on the tip of my tongue. I don’t have that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Dustin Pizzo with Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. Also do you have any concerns about your portfolio on a regional basis?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Dustin Pizzo with Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question

No, I don’t think so. You know, different parts of the economy are performing slightly different Sydney, Florida right now, the housing boom is dramatically fallen off and retail sales performance in Florida is not nearly as robust as it was. Having said that, it’s a lot better than some of the other states. Florida is a big state for us. Texas is another big state for us. Retailers in Texas are continuing to do quite well.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Dustin Pizzo with Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question

Alright, thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from the line of Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question.

Stephanie Krewson

Analyst · Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question

Hi guys. Just two data points that are not in your supplemental information and forgive my voice, I have a cold. What was your CIP at the end of the year, construction progress?

Kevin Habicht

Analyst · Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question

We had about 17 million under construction.

Stephanie Krewson

Analyst · Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And then your disclosure changed a little bit on your balance sheet, is it safe to assume that you have zero held for sale in your investment portfolio, since you are not breaking that out?

Kevin Habicht

Analyst · Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question

That was good assumption.

Stephanie Krewson

Analyst · Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. Thanks guys.

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Stephanie Krewson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Gentlemen, there are no further questions in the queue at this time. Would you like to make some closing comments?

Craig MacNab

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question

Doug, thanks very much. We appreciate all of you joining our conference call. I do want to reiterate that we feel very good about the way we are positioned in 2008. Our balance sheet is in good shape. Our tenants are performing well. And there are plenty of opportunities out there from which we will carefully identify new acquisition opportunities. Thanks very much and we will be talking to you all soon.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for you participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.