Hiroyuki Moriuchi
Analyst · Daiwa Securities
Thank you very much. This is Moriuchi, CFO. I will now give you an overview of our financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026. Please turn to Page 2. Group-wide net revenue came in at JPY 515.5 billion, down 2% from last quarter. Income before income taxes fell 15% to JPY 136.6 billion, while net income was JPY 92.1 billion, down 12%. Excluding gains from the sale of real estate recorded in the previous quarter, net revenue was up 10% and net income was up 40%, reflecting steady growth. Earnings per share for the quarter were JPY 30.49 and return on equity was 10.6%, reaching the quantitative target for 2030 of 8% to 10% or more for the sixth consecutive quarter. In addition, income before income taxes in the 3 international regions rose 63% to JPY 44.9 billion, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of profitability. For all 4 divisions in total, income before income taxes rose 25% to JPY 132.6 billion. In Wealth Management, the balance of recurring revenue assets and recurring revenue saw a net inflow for the 14th consecutive quarter, reaching an all-time high. And in Investment Management, assets under management also reached an all-time high on a 10th consecutive quarter of net inflows. Revenues and profits rose in both divisions. In Wholesale, the overall trend of growth in both revenue and profits strengthened further with net revenue in Equities reaching a record high in Global Markets and momentum remains strong in Investment Banking, too. The Banking division established in April also performed well. Before we go into details for each business, let us first take a look at the performance in the first half of the fiscal year. Please turn to Page 3. As shown on the bottom left, income before income taxes rose 26% year-on-year to JPY 296.9 billion. Net income rose 18% to JPY 196.6 billion, and earnings per share came in at JPY 64.53. Return on equity rose to 11.3% as medium- to long-term initiatives steadily bore fruit. In addition, group revenue rose by 11% and profits benefited from cost controls and operating leverage with a cost coverage ratio of 71%. Please see the bottom right for a breakdown of income before income taxes. Income before income taxes at the 4 main divisions rose 11% to JPY 238.4 billion. Growth in recurring business revenue in Wealth Management and Investment Management helped to stabilize overall performance and Wholesale continued its self-sustained growth based on the principle of self-funding, enabling income before income taxes to rise substantially, thereby driving overall performance. Banking got off to a good start and has made progress with preparations for the introduction of a deposit sweep service next fiscal year. In view of this performance, for the period ended September 2025, we expect to pay a dividend of JPY 27 per share. This works out at a dividend payout ratio of 40.3%. Please turn to Page 4. This time, we have added this slide to our presentation. We calculate stable revenues as the sum of recurring revenue at Wealth Management, business revenue at Investment Management and revenue at Banking. Steady growth in recurring assets in both Wealth Management and Investment Management, shown on the left, has resulted in strong growth in stable revenues, as shown in the graph on the right. And Banking has been steadily increasing its recurring business, including loans outstanding and trust balance, thereby expanding its foundation for growth. Now we will look at the second quarter results for each division. Please turn to Page 7. All percentages discussed from now on are based on a quarter-on-quarter comparison. Wealth Management net revenue increased 10% to JPY 116.5 billion, and income before income taxes grew 17% to JPY 45.5 billion. Income before income taxes was the highest in about 10 years since the quarter ended June 2015. Recurring revenue and the balance of recurring revenue assets both reached record highs as recurring revenue assets saw a net inflow for the 14th consecutive quarter. As major equity markets rose to fresh highs during the quarter, client activity increased and flow revenue registered strong growth. Meanwhile, the pretax profit margin reached a high level of 39%, buoyed by ongoing cost controls. The recurring revenue cost coverage ratio for the last 4 quarters came to 70%, leading additional stability to the division's performance. Please turn to Page 8, where you can see an update on total sales by product. Total sales declined around JPY 300 billion to JPY 6.4 trillion, but this was owing to a tender offer in excess of JPY 1 trillion during the previous quarter. As for recurring revenue assets, sales of investment trusts and discretionary investments grew steadily, supported by continued strong demand for long-term investment diversification. Regarding insurance, sales have continued at a high level, reflecting the relatively high U.S. interest rate environment. Next, let's take a look at the KPIs on Page 9. On the top left, you can see that recurring revenue assets saw a net inflow of JPY 289.5 billion. As major markets reached new highs, net inflows remained at a high level despite increased selling pressure from portfolio adjustments as our efforts to expand the recurring business proved successful, taking us to the next stage. Meanwhile, as shown on the top right, recurring revenue assets totaled JPY 26.2 trillion at the end of September and recurring revenue exceeded JPY 50 billion for the first time in our quarterly results, owing to a contribution from investment fees, which are collected on a half-yearly basis in the second quarter. As shown on the bottom right, the number of workplace services rose steadily to exceed 4 million. Next, let's take a look at Investment Management. Please turn to Page 10. Net revenue came to JPY 60.8 billion, up 20%. Income before income taxes amounted to JPY 30.7 billion, up 43%. Stable business revenue has been growing steadily. In addition to favorable market factors, 10 straight quarters of net inflows resulted in assets under management topping JPY 100 trillion and asset management fees reaching a new high. Investment gain loss came to JPY 16.8 billion, rising sharply by 69%. This reflects not only a large increase in investment gain loss related to American Century Investments, but also profits recorded at private equity investment firm, Nomura Capital Partners on the sale of shares held in Orion Breweries, which publicly listed. Let's now turn to Page 11 and examine our asset management business, which is the key source of business revenue for the division. The graph on the upper left shows that assets under management reached JPY 101.2 trillion at the end of September. As shown on the bottom left, net inflows amounted to JPY 498 billion. Net inflows to the investment trust business totaled around JPY 525 billion and net outflows from the investment advisory and international businesses were around JPY 26 billion. Net inflows in the investment trust business were achieved despite share price increases on the major markets, triggering profit-taking sales, pushing up funds kept in reserve in MRFs. But even excluding MRFs, funds flowed into Japan equity ETFs, private assets and balanced funds. The investment advisory and international businesses saw net outflows owing to reshuffling of investments by Japanese investors and outflows from Asian equities, which outweighed inflows to U.S. high-yield bonds and UCITS investment funds. As shown in the graph at the bottom right, alternative assets under management rose to a new high of JPY 2.9 trillion. This performance is the result of solid net inflows and not solely owing to market factors. Next, Wholesale Division. Please go to Page 12. Net revenue came to JPY 279.2 billion, up 7% as shown at the bottom left of the slide. Global Markets net revenue was up 6% and Investment Banking net revenue was up 15%. Meanwhile, stringent cost management resulted in division expenses only rising 3%. As a result, cost-income ratio improved to 81% and income before income taxes rose 27% to JPY 53.1 billion. Please turn to Page 13 for an update on each business line. Net revenue in Global Markets business rose 6% to JPY 235.7 billion. Fixed income revenue was JPY 121.9 billion, in line with the previous quarter. Let's look at the product breakdown. In macro products, rates revenues were down quarter-on-quarter in EMEA. FX/EM revenues in AEJ were also down. In spread products, credit revenue growth in Japan and AEJ was attained by capturing client flows and securitized products revenue growth was supported in the Americas by the prevailing direction of the interest rate environment. As a result, higher revenue from spread products offset lower revenues from macro products. Equities revenue rose 16% to a new high of JPY 113.8 billion. In equity products, revenues grew on higher client activity in Japan and AEJ, supporting a strong performance in the derivative business and the Americas business remained favorable. Execution services sustained strong revenue from the previous quarter. Please turn to Page 14. Investment Banking net revenue rose 15% to JPY 43.5 billion. Corporate action in Japan remained consistently strong and the international business also contributed to revenue growth. By product, in advisory, momentum remained strong in Japan with multiple transactions involving financial sponsors and moves to take companies private. And international business also made a contribution with M&A deals related to renewable energy and digital infrastructure, primarily in EMEA. Advisory continued to rank top in the Japan-related M&A league table for January through September and ranked 15th in the global M&A league table, demonstrating its global presence. In financing and solutions, revenue rose in DCM on continued solid performance in Japan and multiple international transactions, primarily in EMEA as well as ALF deals, particularly in the Americas. Now let's look at Banking. Please turn to Page 15. In Banking, net revenue came to JPY 12.9 billion, flat from the previous quarter. Income before income taxes fell 12% to JPY 3.2 billion. KPIs such as loans outstanding and investment trust balance remained at a high level and revenue from lending business and trust agent business held firm. Meanwhile, higher costs pushed down profit as an upgrade to the core banking system completed at Nomura Trust and Banking in May 2025 resulted in the associated depreciation being fully booked this quarter. Preparations for the deposit sweep service scheduled for introduction in FY 2026, '27 are progressing as planned. Now I will explain noninterest expenses. Please turn to Page 16. Group-wide expenses came to JPY 378.8 billion, a 4% increase from the previous quarter. Compensation and benefits totaled JPY 195.1 billion, rising 5%, reflecting an increase in performance-linked bonus provisions. Commissions and floor brokerage fees came to JPY 47.2 billion, up 5%. The increase was driven by a heavier volume of transactions. Other expenses came to JPY 52.8 billion, which includes JPY 3.1 billion related to acquisition and integration of the U.S. asset management business of Macquarie Group as well as the expense of paying compensation for losses arising from fraudulent trades in clients' accounts due to phishing scams. I will comment in more detail on how the phishing scams affected our profits this past quarter at the end of today's presentation. Lastly, we take a look at the financial position, Page 17. In the table on the bottom left, you can see that Tier 1 capital at the end of September came to approximately JPY 3.6 trillion, up roughly JPY 170 billion since the end of June, while risk-weighted assets came to JPY 23.5 trillion, up roughly JPY 660 billion. The common equity Tier 1 ratio at the end of September accordingly came to 12.9%. This is within our target range of 11% to 14%. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio finished the quarter down from the 13.2% marked at the end of June, but this decrease reflected the accumulation of positions commensurate with revenue opportunities as well as the increase in the value of risk-weighted assets due to market factors. As we explained 3 months ago, the calculation method for regulatory capital ratios will change once the acquisition of Macquarie Group's U.S. asset management business has been completed, and we currently expect this to depress the CET1 ratio by about 0.7 percentage points. This concludes our overview of second quarter results. We would like to provide more detail on the issue of fraudulent trading in client assets resulting from phishing scams. In response to instances of fraudulent trading, we have raised the security level in stages and the number and scale of damages have come down greatly from April peak. At this point, we have been in direct contact with nearly all clients that have been affected by the attacks, and we are working through the process of paying a compensation to them. There are times during the second quarter when the related damages increased again, but at present, the situation has settled down, owing to various steps undertaken to address the issue. In the second quarter, the negative impact on the profit came to JPY 4.8 billion. Although the number of damages fell sharply, fluctuation in share prices led to high costs in some cases to restore our clients' assets to their original condition. In this regard, we are working to avoid market volatility risk to the greatest extent possible. On October 18, we introduced a passkey authentication system that is recognized as an effective means of thwarting phishing attempts, and we are strengthening measures to eliminate such damages. Looking ahead, we expect that the impact of phishing scams will be much smaller than it has been up through the second quarter, judging from the current state of damages. Our swift action to implement high-quality security countermeasures does more than just limit the damages suffered by our clients. It enhances the security and convenience of the financial services we provide. Our plan is to be proactive in assembling effective account security measures in our role as an industry leader and thereby reinforce our brand as the most trusted partner for our clients. I would like to close with some final remarks. During the quarter just finished, stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose steeply amid lessened uncertainty over the trajectory of U.S. interest rates and widespread interest in AI-related stocks and other high stocks -- high-tech stocks. Those conditions helped us record another quarter of strong earnings as we expanded our stable source of revenue and successfully monetized robust client flows. EPS in the second quarter came to JPY 30.49 and ROE came to 10.6%. For 6 quarters in a row, we have attained a quantitative target for 2030 announced last year of consistently achieving ROE of 8% to 10% or more. In addition, ROE for the first half of the fiscal year was 11.3%. As mentioned at the beginning of this presentation, we have seen solid growth in our key sources of stable revenue, including revenue -- recurring revenue in Wealth Management, business revenue in Investment Management and net revenue in Banking. This has added further to the stability of our company-wide performance. Wholesale as well as steadily achieving independently sustainable growth under the self-funding approach. Revenues and profits in the division have both been increasing in the continuation of last year's trend and overseas business, which has long presented a challenge, has gained ground in making a steady profit contribution. Let me briefly touch on the situation in October. In Wealth Management, net revenue thus far in October is well above the levels observed in the second quarter. We have seen continuous medium- to long-term growth in investment trust and discretionary investment and other such products and services premised on the idea of long-term diversified investment, and this trend has continued in October. The flow from savings to investment has become well established, and we have tangible sense that the client base for investment in marketable securities have broadened steadily. We intend to continue playing our part to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building relationship of trust with our clients and providing them with asset management services tailored to their needs. In Wholesale GM business, equity products have continued performing well. In Investment Banking, we expect the current high frequency of corporate actions to continue. In October thus far, the net revenue in Wholesale continues to be solid. Going forward, we aim to raise our profit baseline by taking on risks appropriate to market conditions, and we ask for your continued support.